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To: Mark Adams who wrote (253736)8/3/2003 12:31:39 PM
From: Mark Adams  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Dr Sohn looks at the impact of 5% and 6% TNX on GDP. Note the charts on pages 3 & 4.

August 4: Two Interest Rate Scenarios

Could rising rates derail the fledging economic recovery?

Bond yields are rising for a number of reasons. Higher interest rates reflect stronger economic growth. With little or no inflation, economic growth will be the primary reason for rising interest rates. The deflation scare back in May and June pushed bond yields to unreasonably low levels; now the scare has diminished, bond yields are returning to where they should be. With an improving economy and stock market, money is leaving safe havens like Treasuries and returning to stocks.


drsohn.com