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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (36975)	8/4/2003 1:52:46 AM
From: energyplay	Respond to of 74559

Well...Energyplay (me) WAS making money in energy stocks, but most of July was flat. Cut back on positions , now have lots of cash. I am about to start buying roylaty trusts again, now that some are back at trend line (SJT) What Gumnan said about Swaps - Lower Corporate fianacing has been a big driver of future stock earnings and better corporate balance sheets. Now treasury rates are soaring and the spread over treausires is soaring also.... This can really slow down the corporate party. Now August is a funny month...these moves could snap back in a few days....if they don't, very likely we will see the market tank (not end of world) by late August / Early September.

To: EL KABONG!!! who wrote (36975)	8/4/2003 2:35:31 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Kerry J., Globally, stocks seem to me fully valued. My four largest holdings are real estate stocks, CAST.ST, Stockholm,COR.AS, Amsterdam,REI.UN, Toronto and UNBP.PA, Paris. They have advanced by 15-20% this year. When you consider that they return in real terms at most 4-5% per year, one can see that further upside in the next year or two is unlikely. When TeoTwawKi hits, the epicenter will be in the US but world wide real estate stocks will suffer because of the economic damage generally. Less major positions are PTR and CEO, maybe as good as gold, who knows? Lots of luck to all.