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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Real Man who wrote (65188)	8/4/2003 8:06:22 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

HI VI, Question for you and you better backround on bonds. With bond yields boncing off 40-45 year lows - did all the major banks just celebrate with out selling this bubbles (now apparent top). After reading some of the articles it sounds like Europe ended up getting the real tail twist - couldn't think of a better bunch of folks to stick with our bubble.GG It is hard for me to believe that the pro's at these major banks didn't just clean up with the last 1/4 point cut. My floorplan banker at bank one told me if we got the last 1/4 point cut it would be time to lock in rates witha hedge for 5-10 years. Many in the banking world were very aware that rates were way too low and couldn't hold long. I suspect those holding the bag at the top were much better described as "Retail" and perhaps many as "Foreign". I think the much misunderstood "Derivatives Problem" has done exactly what it was/is inteneded to do - transfer the risk to those who want to take it. I'm not so sure we won't see many banks having "knocked the skin off the ball" at this historic reversal point in rates. I've no doubt there was a MOMO firm that just was blinded by greed - but the banking index should tell the story.So far rumors have put a chink in the index. I'm still on the sidelines thinking this top was way too apparent,at least within Bank One.If so for them then I suspect for others. My bet is the hot potato got handed off substantially to the retail market out there.If Europe gets burned badly by "Greenspam" then I'd say that tells the story. Couldn't think of a better place for the burst bubble to land - seemings how supportive they have been of late. JMHO and just wondering at that. Bob