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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TheBusDriver who wrote (15550)	8/4/2003 10:01:20 AM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

Wayne, as long as there is no alternative for exporting countries but to recycle their earned Dollars in US treasuries the debt/rinting cycle will feed itself. A note: those $40 trillon debt figures is, AFAIK, an academic research totalling all US debts: private + banks + financial system. Now, i we stay with the more conservative calculation of $5 to $7 trillion, these still are astronomic numbers. IMHO, as long as the RMB stays pegged to the USD, China has no concerns. Chinese economy still is a state economy. All that matters is that the exports are paid in hard foreign currencies. So, prices paid for the exports, or costs of the exports, remain internal. Really need a sabbatical to DD the China wildcard: last readings: lme.co.uk (apparently, last remaining play for China should be copper). antaike.com CNMC's Chambishi Cu Mine starts production Chambishi Copper Mine, attracting more attention from Chinese and Zambia governments as well as insiders of mining industry, started production on July 28,2003, after a three-year mining construction with a total investment of $ 150 million. (btw, same front page has the base metal spot prices in China <g>) Arcelor Teamed Up Baosteel For China Market World steel giant, Arcelor, has reached alliance agreement with China steel flagship, Baosteel Group, for building auto sheet process and stainless production facilities in China on July 28. The European headquartered mill is to utilize advantage of local producer to expand its market share in China. (Bad news for Bessie) Gathered some other interesting links for metals (but Geez! look at 'em fees they ask for one subscription only). Free: about London warehouses stocks vs. paper trading/speculation. Comex, Nymex, LME all the same shark's pond. metalbulletin.com LME launches probe into aluminium backwardation 04 August 2003 10:35 (Ooops! here also? <ng>) LME neginner's guide lme.co.uk Only approximately 5% of LME trades go to physical delivery. lme.co.uk fact file. Volume of business has increased ten fold since 1990. Pack of links with less dead links than others: crugroup.com Yeah! Really need a sabbatical for that China/metals/financials thinghy

To: TheBusDriver who wrote (15550)	8/5/2003 3:33:23 AM
From: Step1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

slow day here so i had to jump in... Wayne, i don`t know what it will be , deflation or inflation but it seems we can get both at the same time. Now for deflation, i have seen a lot of very smart people make good cases for deflation and i personally lean that way myself. Say a person is drowning (US consumer) in the sea (of money) you can either throw them styrofoam boards (refis) to help them float a while longer but certainly adding more water (printing money) will not help ("All this water and not a drop to drink"). I am sort of aimless with this analogy here, just thinking outloud... Say you added enough water to the point where some distant coast would start getting flooded ( Japan and China purchasing US debt, soaking it up in other words) at what point would you expect these distant coastal inhabitants to start getting worried? Again i am not sure myself where i am getting at, but it seems to me that deflation becomes unavoidable as adding more water in the sea becomes progressively useless as the body of water gets bigger// and or it becomes progressively unbearable to coastal inhabitants . So for base metals, if the domino reaction you refered to does happen i.e. a drying up of recycled usd credit to us consumers which impact purchasing of imported goods mainly from Japan and China, then you enter the perfect deflation vortex and that can `t be good news for base metals... It is all so simple since it rests on only two words, but which is it going to be: In or De - flation? (stagflation I consider a mutant of inflation) I made my choice and went with Gold, some PGMs and a little Ag. step1