Somebody leaked the CTA Poll to the Paper.
Governor blames GOP for cuts as his recall poll numbers worsen
Christian Berthelsen, John Wildermuth, Chronicle Staff Writers
Sunday, August 3, 2003
©2003 San Francisco Chronicle | Feedback
Sacramento -- Gov. Gray Davis, fighting for his political survival in the face of a campaign to recall him from office, signed a nearly $100 billion state budget on Saturday and laid much of the blame for painful cuts at the feet of Republicans.
Yet as Davis was hoping to get a boost from the budget signing, both Republican and Democratic strategists confirmed Saturday that a poll done for the California Teachers Association late last week showed Davis losing in the recall, 54 percent to 39 percent.
That's worse than the 51 percent to 43 percent gap shown in a Field Poll two weeks ago, and operatives from both parties said recent polls done for Democratic legislators and for various would-be candidates show similarly bad news for Davis.
"I haven't seen any polls, but from talking to a lot of people, my sense is that the recall is ahead by 15 to 20 percentage points," said Darry Sragow, a veteran Democratic consultant. "I expect that number will narrow as we get closer to the (Aug. 9) filing deadline."
During Saturday's budget signing ceremony, Davis stressed his belief that GOP legislators had hurt Californians by refusing to raise taxes.
"Today's compromise budget offers no reason for celebration," Davis said during the ceremony in his office. "The Republican line in the sand closed the door of opportunity to many deserving students at our colleges and universities. That is wrong, and it is bad policy. Nevertheless, I am signing this budget because the price of not signing it is too high."
The budget was delivered to Davis nearly a month after the constitutional deadline. It cuts total state spending by $12 billion, or 10.8 percent, with the deepest cuts and savings coming from state government operations, education and social services.
Democrats had hoped to raise some taxes to offset the deep spending cuts in the effort to close a $38.2 billion deficit. But Republicans were ultimately victorious in their refusal to do so. Part of the gap will be closed with a $10.7 billion bond offering later this fall.
Now that the 2003-04 budget is wrapped up, Davis must face a precarious week in which there appears to be cracks in the wall of Democratic unity surrounding him.
While party leaders have vowed for weeks that no big-name Democrat will jump into the replacement election to succeed Davis, Attorney General Bill Lockyer and Sen. Barbara Boxer have suggested in the past couple of days that might not be the case.
Few Democrats are supporting the Oct. 7 recall, but a growing number are saying the party may need to put someone in the replacement election as a type of insurance policy to keep Republicans out of the governor's office.
If the pollsters now conducting a nonstop onslaught on California voters find the governor's numbers aren't improving, there could be a stampede of Democratic candidates by the end of next week.
Davis' backers did not deny that recent poll numbers have not favored the governor, but dismissed concerns that leading Democrats were ready to jump ship and get into the recall mix.
"There may be some aberrations," said Peter Ragone, a spokesman for the anti-recall effort, "but the reality is that the party has seldom been as united as it is now."
BUDGET DELAY WAS COSTLY
Davis administration officials said California lost $500 million during the budget impasse because the state continued to spend money at last year's levels during July, the first month of the fiscal year.
That money will have to be made up through cuts to state government operations, with a number of unbudgeted layoffs -- possibly as many as 10,000 workers, state Finance Director Steve Peace said.
The $38 billion deficit was erased through a hodge-podge of program cuts, borrowing, fund transfers and one-time accounting changes. While the budget is balanced for this year, there is already a $7.9 billion shortfall predicted for next year.
Cuts and savings made up 45 percent of the gap, with deficit financing and borrowing making up 33 percent. Fee hikes and other revenue increases helped close 11 percent of the gap, and shifts from one fund to another made up the other 11 percent.
'CONSERVATIVE AGENDA'
During the signing ceremony, Davis said Republicans had decided to push a "conservative agenda" in California through the budget process, and asserted that the GOP had tried, unsuccessfully, to eliminate spending on all manner of Democratic priorities -- from battered women's shelters to coastal regulation to health insurance, immunizations and kindergarten entry for 4-year-olds.
He denied politicizing the budget signing to gain traction in the recall battle, saying of his barbs at Republicans, "That's got nothing to do with the campaign." Still, he surrounded himself at the signing ceremony with traditional Democratic backers, including law enforcement leaders and fire officials in uniform, chiefs of labor and teacher unions, and environmentalists.
POLITICAL FODDER
The budget immediately became political fodder in the recall campaign, with Republican candidate Bill Simon saying the budget will prolong California's fiscal crisis.
"The budget Gray Davis signed today does nothing to solve California's worst fiscal crisis in history," Simon said in a prepared statement.
The single largest spending cut comes in the area of general government, including a $1.1 billion reduction in state employee compensation, and the elimination of 16,000 positions.
Spending on higher education will drop by $864 million, due in part to cuts in funding for the UC and CSU systems. Those cuts will be partially offset by fee hikes and enrollment caps at campuses, which Democrats believe will eliminate access to higher education for some students.
The state will also cut $1.57 billion from spending on health services for the poor, though $930 million of that comes from a change in Medi-Cal accounting methods from accrual to cash. The new method delays the time at which a medical bill is recognized, which essentially pushes a portion of this year's expenses into next year.
The cuts also include a 5 percent rate reduction for Medi-Cal service providers, $194 million in savings from raising county performance standards, and $104 million from suspending the cost-of-living increase for SSI recipients beginning next January.
Still, social services remain the state's second largest spending category after K-12 education, with 32.9 percent.
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