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Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ilaine who wrote (647)	8/5/2003 6:10:33 PM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 1070

I would also assume IgG. I think these tests were done quite a bit after the fact. 4.5% positive is a big number for almost any population. I think the return of SARS is pretty much a done deal. Its jsut a matter of whether it will start in Guangdong, or in a much wider area with more virulent virus. We will see in a few months.

To: Ilaine who wrote (647)	8/14/2003 8:49:56 PM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 1070

Tests performed by the National Microbiology Lab in Winnipeg have yielded a range of results for possible viruses, including some positive results for both a virus similar to the SARS coronavirus and human metapnuemavirus. "These laboratory findings are surprising given the nature of the outbreak," said David Patrick, director of epidemiology at B.C. Centre for Disease Control. "The symptoms and progression of illness are not consistent with SARS infection and there is no evidence anyone related to the outbreak has travelled to an affected area or had contact with a SARS case." Dr. Patrick added: "While the virus looks like the SARS coronavirus, it doesn't appear to act like the SARS virus we've come to know." globeandmail.com

To: Ilaine who wrote (647)	8/14/2003 10:28:59 PM
From: Henry Niman	Respond to of 1070

This story has been evolving all day and the media report below gives the most detail, including the fact that one of the three patients that died with pneumonia also had a positive lab test for SARS CoV. The report indicates that two different tests were run on small number of patients and over 50% were positive. I believe this same lab was producing positive PCR rates of 40% on probable SARS cases from Toronto when the epidemic was raging there. It seems likely that the two tests described below were the PCR test (10/19 positive) and the antibody test (4/7 positive), which strongly suggests that these are SARS cases, although the symptoms may be milder because the virus is not as potent or severe cases require seasonal co-factors not present in July/August in Vancouver. It is not clear why the patient who died with pneumonia and a positive SARS CoV test would not be a SARS death, although the report below seems to indicate that the death is not being classified as SARS at this time. >===== Original Message From "Henry L Niman, PhD" <henry_niman@hms.harvard.edu> ===== canada.com Tests turn up SARS-like virus among sick at B.C. nursing home EMILY YEARWOOD-LEE Canadian Press Thursday, August 14, 2003 VANCOUVER (CP) - Health authorities are investigating the presence of a mysterious SARS-like virus that swept through a suburban Surrey nursing home where several residents died recently.