Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (10836)	8/5/2003 2:39:19 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95881

RtS, I share your "frustration" in deciding on the proper time to get into the market. My track record over the past several years has not been very good. I keep trying to improve on my performance, but the jury is still out on how well I can do in the future. As I have noted before, I "believed" the gurus last year when they said the recovery would be in the last half of 2002. This year we have the same thing - gurus predicting the recovery is at hand for the last half of this year. I am much more cautious this year, and I want to see "the whites of their eyes" before I commit any cash this time. As noted by many, including the tables of valuations presented previously on this thread, valuations of SCE companies are "sky high". These valuations have risen considerably since last March in expectations that the 2nd half of this year will see a recovery in the SCE sector. So far, while some small improvements in outlook were noted during the past 2 to 3 week earnings reporting season, more improvement is needed to justify the present valuations. One man's opinion from Briefing.com, just posted this morning, stirred up quite a hornet's nest on this thread by suggesting that the long awaited recovery in the SCE sector may not come until the 1st half of 2004. To me, those words remind me of last year about this time, when certain individuals started to suggest that maybe, just maybe, recovery wouldn't occur in the last half of 2002. Certainly I am not trying to argue that this year, at this time, is a "carbon copy" of last year at this time. We are a year later in time and a year closer to whenever the recovery does occur. Many other factors too numerous to mention here are different than last year at this time which will determine future market direction. Having said all of the above, I will go out on a limb and say I believe the trend of the SCE sector will be down into the October time frame. Now having said that, it's probably time to "go long" in that sector based on my prior track record.:) Don