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Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Doug R who wrote (438618)8/5/2003 8:38:28 PM
From: Thomas A Watson  Respond to of 769670
 
Yes just in from Iraq, that situation if dire.

america.ath.cx

[ 3902 ] > pwd
/hde3/WATMAN_ROOT/BULK/other_pd_pics/inbox
[ 3903 ] > ls -al 862668.jpg
-rw-r--r-- 1 watson users 2560636 Aug 5 12:48 862668.jpg



To: Doug R who wrote (438618)8/5/2003 10:26:22 PM
From: Hope Praytochange  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 769670
 
washingtonpost.com
washingtonpost.com
Jakarta Hotel Bomb Kills at Least 10, Injures More Than 100
Police Say Blast Was Likely Suicide Attack

By Ellen Nakashima
Washington Post Foreign Service
Tuesday, August 5, 2003; 7:40 PM

JAKARTA, Indonesia, Aug. 5 -- A powerful car bomb exploded in front of the JW Marriott Hotel here this afternoon, killing at least 10 people, and injuring more than 100, including two Americans, in what officials said appeared to be a suicide attack.

It was the worst act of terror in Indonesia since two bombs exploded on the resort island of Bali last year, killing 202 people.

Piles of broken glass, pieces of burned, twisted metal, bloody body parts and singed shoes and clothing littered the area surrounding the hotel and the adjacent commercial building, Mutiara Plaza. The hotel's windows were shattered up to the 21st floor. The explosion caused a fire at the neighboring office building, where virtually one whole side of the highrise had its windows shattered, with shredded drapes flapping in the wind. Shells of at least eight burned cars and limousines smoldered this afternoon in front of the building.

No one claimed responsibility for the bombing, but analysts said they see it as the work of the regional terror network, Jemaah Islamiah. It comes as Indonesian police have made significant strides against militant Islam, arresting more than 40 suspected Jemaah Islamiah members accused of involvement in last October's Bali bombing, the most devastating terror attack since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks in the United States.

Indonesian Police Gen. Dai Bachtiar said the bomb was placed in a Toyota Kijang, an Indonesian minivan, which was in a taxi queue snaking its way forward toward the hotel's lobby. It exploded at about 12:45 p.m., he said.

Many of the victims were at the Marriott's popular ground-floor Sailendra Restaurant, which was packed with prospective diners. "I just heard an explosion and saw glass everywhere," said Irna Fahrianti, 19, lying in a bed at the Jakarta Hospital with a leg injury. "I covered my head with a tray. Everyone ran out, including me. I held my leg. My friend helped me."

Fahrianti, on her fourth day as a trainee waitress at the restaurant, ran to a car, whose driver took her to the hospital.

Two Americans were injured, and none were reported killed, U.S. Embassy officials said. One of the two injured was treated and released. The other is still being treated, U.S. Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce said. "We extend our deepest condolences to the victims of this deplorable act of violence," the ambassador added.


Though the Marriott is a Western target, owned by an Indonesian and managed by Americans, most of the dead and injured were Indonesians.

As with Bali last year, white boards were posted outside hospital emergency rooms with the names -- or sometimes just a nationality -- of the wounded: Astrid Wikastri; Agus; USA; Oscar, 24; Pieter, 37.

Simon Leunig, a marketing manager from Perth, Australia, had just showered in his seventh floor hotel room when he heard an explosion. "The windows blew in, throwing me across the room onto the bed," he recounted.

He grabbed his cell phone and passport, slapped on a pair of trousers and sneakers, and taking the elevator, "got out of there as fast as I could." He helped one wounded guest out from the lobby, and outside saw two dead Indonesian limousine or taxi drivers. He helped carry one badly injured man, a piece of whose burned clothing he was still clutching as he stood outside the shattered hotel. "I think he's going to make it," he said of the man he helped. Another man had lost his leg, he said.

About 100 yards from the hotel, on a sidewalk near the Mutiara Plaza, lay a pair of burned FILA sneakers and one black loafer, some torn and burned clothing and a bloody piece of human bone. Forensic workers carefully wrapped everything that could constitute evidence with gauze sheets and removed it for examination.

Also damaged was a building on the other side of the Marriott, which housed several foreign missions, including the Swedish and Danish embassies.

The explosion came on the same day that Abubakar Baasyir, the spiritual leader of Jemaah Islamiah, was testifying in his own defense in a trial in which he is accused of treason and involvement in church bombings on Christmas Eve 2000 that killed 19 people. Police have also alleged he was involved in a plot to kill President Megawati Sukarnoputri.

It also came two days before the first verdict is expected in the Bali bombing trials and four days after Megawati vowed to destroy the terror networks responsible for the Bali blasts and other bombings in this, the world's most populous Muslim country. This "domestic branch of the international terrorism is a terrifying threat," she said.

"It's clearly Jemaah Islamiah," said Zachary Abuza, a Simmons College professor who has extensively studied militant Islam in Southeast Asia. "This shows these guys still have a lot of fight in them. . . . This is not something you retire from. They also do it to justify, for morale's sake, their own organization."

A Western analyst in Jakarta, who asked not to be quoted by name, said the bombing is "all part of a game to demonstrate that despite the series of arrests that have occurred, that Jemaah Islamiah is alive, living and well. It is purely a statement."

The 33-floor, 333-room Marriott, which opened in September 2001, is the latest luxury hotel in this city of 10 million. The U.S. Embassy has held town meetings there, billets its temporary duty personnel there and has held two National Day celebrations there.

© 2003 The Washington Post Company



To: Doug R who wrote (438618)8/5/2003 10:27:42 PM
From: Hope Praytochange  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 769670
 
Past Bombings in Indonesia
From Associated Press at 11:07 AM

-- July 14, 2003: A bomb shattered glass and damaged a wall in Indonesia's Parliament, just days after police arrested nine Islamic militants they said were planning fresh terror attacks.

-- April, 28, 2003: A pipe bomb ripped through the departures terminal of Jakarta airport, injuring 11 people.

-- Oct. 12, 2002: Three near-simultaneous blasts rocked a resort on the island of Bali killing 202 people, mostly foreign tourists. Police blame the Southeast Asian terror group Jemaah Islamiyah for the attacks.

-- July 1, 2002: A bomb killed one person and injured six at a Jakarta supermarket near a large army housing complex, where many of Indonesia's high-ranking generals live.

-- Jan.1, 2002: A hand grenade blew up in front of a restaurant at a busy shopping center in Jakarta, killing one person during New Year's celebrations.

-- Sept. 23, 2002: A car bomb wrecked the basement of a Jakarta supermarket, but killed no one. Police said Jemaah Islamiyah militants may have been responsible.

-- Dec. 24, 2000: 16 people were killed during a wave of Christmas Eve bombings that hit dozens of churches in ten cities across Indonesia. Alleged Jemaah Islamiyah chief Abu Bakar Bashir is currently on trial for the bombings.

-- Sept. 13, 2000: A car bomb exploded inside the garage of the Jakarta Stock Exchange building, killing 10 people and injuring 16. Police claim Acehnese separatist rebels were behind the explosion, but the rebels said they had nothing to do with it.

-- Aug. 1, 2000: A bomb killed two people and seriously injured the Philippine Ambassador to Indonesia. Police said the attack was mounted to avenge a 1999 assault that ousted the Muslim separatist Moro Islamic Liberation from camp on the Philippine's island of Mindanao.

-- April 19, 1999: The ground floor of Jakarta's main Istiqlal mosque was destroyed by a bomb allegedly set off by Jemaah Islamiyah extremists, police said. No one was injured.



To: Doug R who wrote (438618)8/5/2003 10:29:21 PM
From: Hope Praytochange  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 769670
 
"Al-Qaida operatives have shown a special interest in converting a camera flash attachment into a stun gun type of weapon or improvised explosive device," the advisory said.
washingtonpost.com



To: Doug R who wrote (438618)8/5/2003 10:53:03 PM
From: Hope Praytochange  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 769670
 
businessweek.com

AUGUST 4, 2003

WASHINGTON WATCH
By Howard Gleckman

Bush in '04, Even with This Economy
Despite slow growth and lost jobs, two proven political prognosticators see omens pointing to a GOP victory -- maybe even a landslide

It's both conventional wisdom and the fervent hope of Democrats that a sluggish economy can help defeat George W. Bush in 2004. And no wonder. U.S. gross domestic product grew at 2.4% in the second quarter -- an improvement over last year, but still a slow pace. The unemployment rate remains a troubling 6.2%, while 44,000 more jobs were shed in July. And a July 25-27 Gallup survey reported that 51% of Americans disapprove of Bush's handling of the economy. You'd think that with all that gloomy news, the incumbent would be in trouble.

You'd be wrong, at least according to the economists who study these things. They've come up with a surprising conclusion: Even if the economy continues at its current languid growth rate, Bush will be reelected. And, according to some analysts, he'll win handily. "With this economy," says Yale University economist Ray Fair, "it is unlikely that Bush will lose."

Bush has three big things going for him. He's a Republican (and the nation has been trending GOP for years). He's an incumbent -- an immensely powerful advantage, most of the time. And while the economy may not be great, it may be just good enough.

DISPOSABLE INCOME. Fair was uncannily correct in 2000. He predicted six months before the election that Al Gore would receive 50.8% of the vote -- he actually got 50.3%. In '04, Fair sees Bush getting as much as 55% -- a big victory. Another student of the economy and Presidential elections, Douglas Hibbs of Sweden's Goteborg University, uses a different model. While he's less confident than Fair, Hibbs also projects a Bush win.

He figures the best economic indicator of a Presidential election is the increase in real per capita disposable personal income -- the amount of income each person has to spend or save after figuring in inflation and taking out taxes. That measure has been rising at an annual rate of about 1.8% during the Bush Presidency -- below average but enough to give his reelection chances a solid boost.

Fair uses a three-part calculation: He looks at overall growth, inflation, and what he calls good news -- the number of quarters in which the economy grows at 4% or higher. Bush benefits from very low inflation, but GDP has risen at only 1.7% since he took office, and he has had only one good-news quarter. Still, Fair figures if the economy expands at just its current modest rate of 2.4% for the first three quarters of '04, Bush will be in good shape. If growth next year hits 3% -- below most economists' expectations -- he could win in a landslide.

THE JOBS FACTOR. Of course, there are no guarantees. The economy could crater. Or the President could fall victim to a gap between economic reality and public perception. That's what did in Bush's father in 1992. He was defeated by Bill Clinton soon after the U.S. rebounded from recession but before voters felt the turnaround.

A key to that perception lag may be unemployment. Hibbs and Fair don't pay much attention to the jobs data because employment usually tracks GDP growth so closely. But if the expansion picks up and people don't get back to work quickly enough, Bush could have a problem. After all, the growth rate in 1992 was 2.3% -- not much different than today's -- but unemployment remained at a stubbornly high 7.5%. Fair predicted Bush pere would get 50.9% of the vote in'92, but he received just 46.5%. And some hints indicate that the same problem could trouble Bush fils.

Many economists feel the economy will have to grow at 3.5% before employment starts picking up. But whether the nation will enjoy that kind of rebound next year is problematic at best. Says John S. Irons, another election-and-economy watcher: "Usually, it's clear. The economy is doing well and employment is strong, or GDP and employment are terrible. This election might test that. GDP has been slow, but employment has been unambiguously bad."

CREDIBILITY AND CASUALTIES. That's one reason why the White House is anxiously talking up the expansion. Even modestly good news, such as the positive second-quarter GDP numbers, sent Administration aides scrambling to declare a turnaround. "The recovery," Treasury Secretary John Snow insisted on July 31, "is well under way."

It's also important to remember that economics isn't destiny. Other issues could have a powerful impact on the '04 election, chief among them Iraq and Afghanistan, and the war on terrorism. Indeed, Hibbs thinks another key election indicator is the number of U.S. military personnel killed in action during a President's term. Bush's credibility is also becoming an issue, and the possibility of scandal is always a factor.

Still, if the economy is the Democrats' best hope, they face an uphill climb in '04. Perhaps they ought to hope that James Carville's famous rule of Presidential elections -- "It's the economy, stupid" -- turns out to be wrong this time around.