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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pink Minion who wrote (10859)	8/5/2003 11:20:53 PM
From: StanX Long	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95916

SemiBear, I don't keep up with Zeev's thread, as it is very busy, "sometimes hundreds a day". What is Zeev wearing these days? I remember he took off the Bear Suit recently, but what he wearing now? Thanks Stan

To: Pink Minion who wrote (10859)	8/5/2003 11:35:58 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95916

Do I consider the VIX the indicator? Nope... just one. Heck I was talking TRIN and put to call ratio for months while I waited for the VIX to finally fall low enough to deserve mention. I've married stocks before and it has always been a disaster. I will never marry an indicator. Certainly not the VIX but for now it offers some real interesting points that will continue to be worth discussion. The most interesting thing is that it got below 20 and it has bounced back higher fairly rapidly. Nice rate of change. So was the 20 number important? Perhaps but maybe not. You're right about the rate of change being more important though. What happens to the market if the VIX rises even more rapidly? How much more interesting would the VIX at 50 be to me? Fifty would be a hugely important number especially if the market was low enough to offer the upside we have seen since the last time it was that high. Even a number like 40 for the VIX would be hard to believe though today. But if that ever important rate of change includes a rising VIX to whatever level the market will fall in tandem. And that ultimately is what is important about the VIX to me. It rises as the market falls. It falls as the market rises. You cannot see the trend many times until it has really taken place but numbers like 20 and 50 can give us important guideposts (like potential U turn ahead) along the way for important market turning points. The market has turned south with a VIX number at, or near, 20 several times these last three years. It looks like to me that maybe it has done it again. JMHO, RtS