To: Kirk © who wrote (6654 ) 8/6/2003 1:03:19 PM From: Proud_Infidel Respond to of 25522 Slow recovery seen in communications market By Mark LaPedus Semiconductor Business News 08/06/2003, 12:40 PM ET SAN JOSE, Calif. -- After a severe downturn over the last 30 months, the slumping communications market appears to be headed for a slow, modest recovery, according to analysts. One indicator is the positive outlook for Cisco Systems Inc., the leader and bellwether in the communications equipment business. On Tuesday (Aug. 5), Cisco reported sales of $4.7 in its fourth fiscal quarter, up 2 percent quarter-over-quarter. The San Jose-based company reported a pro-forma EPS of $0.15, which was in line with expectations. Bookings were at the upper end of the 5 percent to 10 percent target range. For its current fiscal quarter, Cisco projected that its sales would increase 2 percent to 4 percent over the previous period. Cisco also saw quarter-over-quarter growth in the U.S. market for the first time in a year, but the Asia-Pacific sector was flat. China and India were weak, but Japan showed some growth. Cisco "is seeing early signs of a turn in business activity," according to a new report from SG Cowen Securities Corp., a New York-based investment banking firm. "Cisco delivered up guidance in a seasonally weak quarter and the prospects for Cisco's non-core businesses are solid." In general, a slow and modest communications recovery will begin to take hold by the end of 2003, said Jim Feldhan, president of Semico Research Corp., a market research firm in Phoenix. The communications recovery "will roll over into 2004 and 2005," Feldhan said. Communications, especially wireless, is a key driver for a possible IC recovery. But a lackluster recovery foreseen in the semiconductor industry has prompted Semico on Tuesday to lower its chip forecast to 10.7 percent in 2003 over 2002 ( see Aug. 5 story ). The outlook for 2004 is stronger, thanks to PCs and wireless. "It's going to be PCs and cell phones," Feldhan said. "They are going to be the drivers for years to come." In the short term, the signs look promising for handsets. In the second quarter of 2003, the total handset market increased to 107 million units, demonstrating a marginal increase of 2 percent sequentially and 12 percent growth year-on-year, according to findings by technology market research firm ABI of Oyster Bay, N.Y. ABI estimates that nearly 3.6 million units of smartphones and smartphone-PDAs were sold in Q2 2003, representing about 3.3 percent of the overall handset market. There is good and bad news in other markets, especially wireless local area networking (WLAN). There has been plenty of growth hype for 802.11 or Wi-Fi, but few semiconductor companies will profit from this industry, according to a report from D-Side Advisors, a market research and consulting firm in San Jose, Calif. "IC companies are being squeezed from both top and bottom," said Charles DiLisio, president of D-Side Advisors. "The bottom-up squeeze comes because there are simply too many IC firms chasing after the Wi-Fi communications business. The top squeeze is due to customer expectations for product priced at under $99," he said in the report. It's a mixed bag on the wireline side, especially at Cisco. The company is seeing strong growth in its core router market, which was up 25 percent quarter-over-quarter. It is also banking on growth in its "advanced technology" sectors, such as WLAN, voice-over-IP, optical, and storage. But the voice-based enterprise market remains a question--if not weak. Cisco's "color on growth in its advanced technologies and carrier business confirm our belief that Cisco will be less dependent in the future on its core enterprise business for growth," according to SG Cowen.