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To: chowder who wrote (24952)8/6/2003 10:48:01 PM
From: Fiscally Conservative  Respond to of 206361
 
dabum3

Your trading thesis/style reminds me of Zeev Hed although I wonder sometimes if he alone is not a catalyst for price movement. :)
There is so much to learn in this game.



To: chowder who wrote (24952)8/8/2003 1:41:56 AM
From: profile_14  Respond to of 206361
 
Dabum: Higher Probability Trade

Look at the OIH or the OSX and the moves it makes from the Sept./Oct. time frame to the Jan./Feb. time frame over the last 4-5 years. These moves from top to bottom are 50%-80% moves, every year like clockwork.

August is a volatile month but not far from the bottom. This year's pullback has not been nearly as strong as those of years past, partly because of the economic and price dynamics, IMHO.

Lengthen the horizon and you might be able to base your technical trade along with fundamental data, supported furthermore with seasonal data, to ensure that your entry is at or near a bottom in a market that is conducive to good moves barring any economic disaster.

Good luck.