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To: quehubo who wrote (24956)	8/6/2003 6:35:37 PM
From: Ed Ajootian	Respond to of 206326

Warming Trend Unexpectedly good weather brings record yields By JON TAYLOR IT WAS ONLY A FEW MONTHS AGO, at the start of the 2003 U.S. corn and soybean-growing season, that influential forecasters were warning of a developing "La Nina" weather pattern they said could lead to some hot and dry conditions and cut yields. Some even drew a parallel with the infamous 1988 growing season when corn and soybean yields were at the lowest levels ever. On the contrary, nearly ideal growing conditions have prevailed this spring and much of the summer across most of the U.S. corn and soybean belt, fueling expectations of near record yields. Global Weather Services estimates that a corn crop of over 10 billion bushels and soybean production of 3 billion bushels could occur. It is true that in recent weeks hot and dry conditions have edged into the far- western areas of the corn belt, reducing yield potential in some locations and our production numbers may need to be reduced somewhat if the trend continues. Nevertheless, what appeared to be an incredible growing season July 1 may be more realistically categorized as a very good or excellent year at the beginning of August. How did those pundits get it so wrong? First of all, the cooling of ocean waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean during May and early June, a development associated with the La Nina weather pattern, was significant and had it continued into July it is very likely that a full-blown La Nina event would be in progress. The situation reversed itself in the latter half of June and presently Pacific temperatures are slightly above normal, but still well within the neutral range. Secondly, even if a full-fledged La Nina had developed this summer, there is no guarantee that hot, dry conditions would have affected the U.S. Midwest. The fact is that La Nina or El Nino events do not correlate very well with spring and summer weather conditions in the U.S. corn belt. Unusually wet or dry conditions can occur with either event as well as with neutral conditions. For example, when considering the below-median June-through-August rainfall totals since 1950 for Illinois -- the largest corn-growing state -- 35% of the events were preceded by El Nino conditions, 35% by La Nina and 30% by neutral conditions. Also, 44% of the above-median summer rainfall for Illinois occurred with neutral conditions and 28% of the occurrences were associated each with El Nino and La Nina. When considering the top five driest or wettest years, there is still a mixture of El Nino, La Nina and neutral conditions in each category. Also, it's logical to assume that La Nina or El Nino events take a while to have an effect. So, had La Nina developed this spring and summer it would likely have been very late in the growing season before any significant impact would have occurred. For the rest of the 2003 growing season, trends suggest that favorable crop weather should continue across the U.S. corn belt in most areas near and east of the Mississippi River. Corn and soybean crops should continue to perform well. A bias toward hot and relatively dry weather is not likely to disappear through the first half of August across the far western belt. Crops in parts of Minnesota, western Iowa, Nebraska and northern Missouri will likely have to deal with stress from heat and dryness. Totally dry weather is not expected in the western belt, but timeliness of the rainfall will be a key factor in crop development during the first half of August. Now that neutral sea-surface temperatures prevail across the equatorial Pacific Ocean and El Nino and La Nina are currently resting, what can be expected during the fall and winter months? Of the 12 Ocean-Atmospheric models maintained by various weather agencies around the world, nine predict neutral conditions to remain through December 2003. Three of the models indicate cooling (La Nina). Ten of the models predict equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures into March 2004 and all agree that neutral conditions will prevail during that period. With the science suggesting that neither El Nino nor La Nina is likely to develop in the next several months, normal variability in the central U.S. weather patterns can be expected this fall and winter. What this means is that hot and cold, wet and dry periods will likely occur, but a consistent bias toward one side of normal is not likely. ********************************************************** This is great news! If you recall, the early prognostications for last fall/winter were that it would be warmer than normal due to La Nina (or was it El Nino?). Now, without those elements present, nobody will be able to use "its gonna be a warm winter" as an excuse not to buy energy stocks.

To: quehubo who wrote (24956)	8/6/2003 11:40:00 PM
From: sam_n_cctx	Respond to of 206326

Hi que thx for posting ur trades, up front and in pretty close to real time. i as a humble lurker, simply do not have ur frankness i am attmepting to back test a free program called stock anaylzer,(v4.18) that can be downloaded from this site. money-centre.com the program has built into a spreadsheet look alike report, that tracks the long\short recommendations on any given stock that u choose to track. of the four stocks u mentioned bjs, wft, nbr and pten, flashed buy signals today base on some unknown algorythim named automatic optimazation. i have tried to somehow attach this report to this email. and i have not succeeded, when i clik on file, send, it places of the condition of having an e-mail adddress to send to. fwiw i am underwater with mssn. i got in at 2.00, and also i have some wht @ 1.41. gold and energy did rather nicely today about, mssn, had i taken the time to read the spreasheet report, it would have urged me not to enter, mssn, i was totally mezmerized by the trend..... which ended the next day. sorry to ramble, but basically i am using ur choices as an additional back test of the stock analyzer prg fwiw sam