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Politics : WHO IS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IN 2004 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (3906)	8/6/2003 7:29:25 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (9) \| Respond to of 10965

dailykos.com <COPY> Cattle Call 2004: 8/6 last set of's rankings: 1) Dean, 2) Gephardt, 3) Kerry, 4) Edwards, 5) Lieberman, 6) Graham, 7) Kucinich, 8) Sharpton, and 9) Moseley-Braun. Big changes in my rankings. 1. Howard Dean Obviously had a good week. Has become the center of the election. It seems the only time reporters want to talk to the others is when they need reaction for yet another Dean story. Dean will be one of the last two standing. The rest of the pack will be fighting to be the "anti-Dean". We are seeing some interesting dynamics. Never before have the front-runner and the insurgent been the same candidate. How it shakes out remains to be seen, but this primary election is following no historical precedent. 2. Joe Lieberman Big jump up for Lieberman. He has arrested his precipitous drops in the national polls, and he's competitive for third in both Iowa and NH. But he gets that "up" arrow for effectively defining himself as the anti-Dean. Here's what Lieberman is hoping for: Dean wins Iowa, knocking out Gephardt. Dean wins NH, knocking out Kerry. This whole time, Lieberman has been selling himself as the anti-Dean, sucking up the "moderate" vote and keeping Edwards and Graham down on the mat. Therefore, on January 27, all that's left in the field is Dean and Lieberman, and the battle for the soul of the party is on full swing. Given the latest poll numbers and unmistakable momentum with the Dean campaign, this scenario would be quite likely if the elections started today. 3. Dick Gephardt One bad Iowa poll doesn't mean the end, but it does mean a setback, especially since the poll was conducted by the sage of Iowa elections -- the Des Moines Register. Gephardt got some big wins -- like the national Teamster's endorsement, only to see it diluted by losing the Chicago Teamsters (the second largest Teamsters chapter) to Kerry. And that Register poll gave Dean a 10-point lead in union households over Gephardt (though the MOE was pretty big). 4. John Kerry We keep hearing that he hasn't started campaign, which is not true. I've sat inches from him as he campaigned, so I'm pretty sure about that. But, as spin goes, it's marginally effective. Of course, everyone else is campaigning, so sheer inertia earns him a "down" arrow. And the more he waits, the more Lieberman will be able to solidify his spot as the "anti-Dean". Given Dean's surge, and the respective overlap of their target constituencies, every point Dean rises is a net loss for Kerry. 5. John Edwards No longer a top-tier candidate (if he ever was one). Polls like crap everywhere, including in his backyard (South Carolina). When Braun outpolls you, you know you've hit bottom. 6. Graham Fading... 7. Al Sharpton He had a candidate forum this week, and as he always does, wowed the audience with his rhetorical brilliance. The man can speak, and he trains his guns on Bush. I love having him around. 8. Dennis Kucinich Consistently brings up the rear in every single poll. Small group of motivated supporters keep him out of the cellar. 9. Carol Moseley-Braun Outpolls Edwards in national poll, clocking in at 5 percent. That's good for something, isn't it? Others: Biden and Clark. Both will probably run.

To: stockman_scott who wrote (3906)	8/6/2003 9:02:38 PM
From: PROLIFE	Respond to of 10965

Kerry's Identity Crisis What He Says He's For Vs. What He Voted For "'Kerry will have to expend an awful lot of time and money to convince people that he's not the classic Massachusetts liberal,' said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political analyst. 'And that's going to be tough, because mainly he is.'" (Jennifer Peter, "Presidential Contender Confronts 'Massachusetts Liberal' Label," The Associated Press, 12/21/02) KERRY SAYS HE'S FOR ELIMINATING MARRIAGE PENALTY TAX He Even Thinks He Did: Kerry Claims He And Democrats Fought To End Marriage Penalty Tax. "We fought hard to get rid of the marriage penalty." (MSNBC's "News Live," 7/31/03) But The American Taxpayers' Painful Reality: Has Voted At Least 12 Times Against Full Marriage Penalty Relief. (S. Con. Res. 13, CQ Vote # 178: Rejected 31-69: R 31-23; D 0-46, 5/23/95, Kerry Voted Nay; S. 1415, CQ Vote #154: Rejected 48-50: R 5-49; D 43-1, 6/10/98, Kerry Voted Yea; S. 1429, CQ Vote #230: Rejected 46-54: R 45-9; D 0-45; I 1-0, 7/29/99, Kerry Voted Nay; S. 1429 CQ Vote #247: Passed 57-43: R 52-2; D 4-41; I 1-0, 7/30/99, Kerry Voted Nay; H.R. 2488, CQ Vote #261: Adopted 50-49: R 49-4; D 0-45; I 1-0, 8/5/99, Kerry Voted Nay; H.R. 6, CQ Vote #82: Rejected 53-45: R 53-1; D 0-44, 4/13/00, Kerry Voted Nay; H.R. 6, CQ Vote #83: Rejected 53-45: R 53-1; D 0-44, 4/13/00, Kerry Voted Nay; H.R.4810, CQ Vote #213: Rejected 20-79: R 1-53; D 19-26, 7/18/00, Kerry Voted Yea; H.R. 4810, CQ Vote #214: Adopted 54-45: R 54-0; D 0-45, 7/18/00, Kerry Voted Nay; H.R. 4810, CQ Vote #215: Passed 61-38: R 53-1; D 8-37, 7/18/00, Kerry Voted Nay; H. Con. Res. 83, CQ Vote #79: Adopted 50-50: R 49-1; D 1-49, With Vice President Cheney Casting A "Yea" Vote, 4/5/01, Kerry Voted Nay; H.R. 1836, CQ Vote #165: Passed 62-38: R 50-0; D 12-38, 5/23/01, Kerry Voted Nay) KERRY SAYS HE DIDN'T RAISE MIDDLE CLASS TAXES He Even Thinks He Didn't: Claims Democrats Didn't Raise Taxes On Middle Class Under Clinton. "We Democrats, real Democrats, we balanced the budget. ... We did it without raising taxes on middle class Americans." (MSNBC's "News Live," 7/31/03) But The American Taxpayers' Painful Reality: In 1993, Voted Twice For Clinton's $240 Billion Tax Hike. (H.R. 2264, CQ Vote #190: Passed 49-49: R 0-43; D 49-6, With Vice President Al Gore Casting The Tie-Breaking Vote, 6/25/93, Kerry Voted Yea; H.R. 2264, CQ Vote #247: Adopted 50-50: R 0-44; D 50-6, With Vice President Al Gore Casting The Tie-Breaking Vote, 8/6/93, Kerry Voted Yea) Clinton/Kerry Tax Hikes Hit Middle Class. "[M]any people who are not wealthy will be affected by the tax increases, some in ways that have been widely heralded, but others in ways that may come as a surprise. Gasoline taxes are going up; so are taxes on many people's Social Security benefits. Anyone who moves for a new job might lose certain deductions of expenses, whether he is Croesus or Cratchit." (John H. Cushman Jr., "The Budget Struggle," The New York Times, 8/8/93) Has Since Voted Three Times Against Repealing Social Security Benefits Tax Hike. (S. Con. Res. 57, CQ Vote #142: Adopted 50-48: R 49-4; D 1-44, 5/22/96, Kerry Voted Nay; H.R. 8, CQ Vote #188: Adopted 58-41: R 54-1; D 4-40, 7/13/00, Kerry Voted Nay; S. Con. Res. 23, CQ Vote #94: Rejected 48-51: R 48-3; D 0-47; I 0-1, 3/25/03, Kerry Voted Nay) Is "Very Proud" He Raised Gasoline Taxes. "Sen. John F. Kerry has said he was 'very proud' of his vote to increase the [gas] tax by 4.3 cents per gallon ..." (Michael Kranish, "GOP Sees Momentum For Gas Tax Cut," The Boston Globe, 5/4/96)