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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KyrosL who wrote (110290)	8/6/2003 9:13:55 PM
From: Nadine Carroll	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Poll: Solid majority of Palestinians favors truce By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS A solid majority of Palestinians favors the truce called by the main Palestinian groups, halting attacks against Israel, according to a poll published Wednesday. The poll also showed that Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmoud Abbas gets a favorable job rating from his people, though economic hardships continue unabated. Hamas and the other violent Islamic group, Islamic Jihad, declared a unilateral three-month halt to attacks against Israelis on June 29. Fatah, headed by Yasser Arafat and Abbas, called a six-month truce. The poll showed that 74 percent support the truce and 61 percent favor extending it for another three months. Support for the truce was slightly higher in the Gaza Strip than the West Bank - 66 percent to 59 percent. Gaza has felt more benefits from the reduction in violence. Shortly after the truce was declared, Israel turned security in Gaza over to the Palestinians, removing most roadblocks and allowing freedom of movement. In the West Bank, however, dozens of Israeli army roadblocks continue to stifle daily life. Israel maintains that the checkpoints are necessary for security. The poll was conducted by Bir Zeit University in the West Bank, in cooperation with the Washington-based International Republican Institute. It questioned 1,200 Palestinians in 75 communities in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and quoted a margin of error of 3 percentage points. The poll showed that 27 percent of the people rate Abbas' performance as good and 34 percent as fair, compared to 28 percent who found him weak. The total of 61 percent giving Abbas a favorable rating contrasted with earlier polls, which showed him with little support compared to Arafat. However, those polls were based on popularity, not performance. The poll also reflected the severe economic hardships faced by Palestinians as a result of nearly three years of violence. In a finding unchanged since May, 41 percent of households reported no working breadwinner. Also, 38 percent described their economic situation as bad or very bad. In another finding, the poll results indicated that if elections were held now, the Islamic movements would draw about the same support as Fatah, reflecting the steadily growing power of Hamas and Islamic Jihad over the past decade. Before, Fatah was the practically unrivaled political leader of the Palestinians. jpost.com

To: KyrosL who wrote (110290)	8/6/2003 9:24:52 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 281500

OPEC is producing flat out, except for the Saudis. Interesting stats Kyros.. thanks for posting.. I was surprised by the over totals of production and capacity.. Saudi Arabia doesn't have more more capacity available, if those stats are to believed (would welcome some expert voices stepping in here with an analysis).. But I don't see Saudi Arabia permitting prices to drop to $20/barrel.. They've indicated that it doesn't serve them to see oil trade outside of a band between $25 and $30/bbl.. That keeps out competing western oil companies, as well as maintaining the necessary income they require to service their deficit. Hawk

To: KyrosL who wrote (110290)	8/6/2003 10:02:55 PM
From: Brumar89	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Does SA's really have spare capacity? Here's an excerpt from something Ed Ajootian posted on another thread: "With little exploration success since the 1960s and many of its fields showing signs of decline, Saudi Arabia is having an increasingly difficult time keeping production flat. According to energy investment banker, Matt Simmons, head of Simmons and Company International, many of the country's ageing fields are showing increased water cuts. Water cuts, water produced along with crude oil that is later separated, are a sure sign that a field is headed into decline. The country's largest field, Ghawar, now produces over 1 million barrels of water a day along with its nearly 4.5 million barrels of crude. With Ghawar accounting for 60% of the country's 7.5 million barrels per day of crude production, there is little hope Saudi Arabia can keep production flat if Ghawar continues to water out. Since Saudi Arabia cannot invest the billions of dollars needed to maintain current production and develop smaller fields, Ghawar has assured the world high oil prices are here to stay. Another great myth about Saudi Arabia is that the country has spare production capacity. Many believe that Saudi Arabia's spare production capacity allows them to "turn on the spigots" at times of high oil prices. It is extremely unlikely the country has any spare capacity. There exists little incentive to restrict production at times of high prices and low inventories. Unless human nature has changed substantially in recent months, I doubt that the cash-strapped Saudis are producing much below their production capacity." Message 19181420