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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: JohnM who wrote (4462)8/7/2003 10:38:42 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793681
 
One of the nicest things about Arnold is that it will drive the Euros nuts!

INSTAPUNDIT

LILEKS IS BACK, and he's got some thoughts on the Schwarzenegger candidacy:

Will he win? Well, he'll bring new voters to the polls - we saw this in Minnesota with Jesse. People who never voted will find it cool to vote for Arnie, and even though they might not be the most sophisticated participant in the process, they?ll probably intuit that a vote isn't just a thumbs-up statement. It means something. Yelling "I bought your video" doesn't really put an actor in your debt, but shouting "I voted for you" somehow does.

In any case, it'll change a few minds about the possibilities of politics. All their life they saw politicians as nothing more than nerdy bloodless grinbots, and now here's this guy: a giant with a gap-tooth smile smoking a Montecristo the size of Gray Davis? shinbone. Heck yeah!

Only in America. And I say that as a good thing. Which reminds me: like all typical examples of American craziness, this will just horrify the Europeans.

I'm not saying that's reason enough to vote for Arnold, or anything, but it's certainly a plus.

Kaus and Beeblogger Daniel Weintraub have more on this. And early recall-booster PrestoPundit has a roundup of links relating to the announcement. Finally, Bill Hobbs leaves no doubts as to who he's supporting:

So run, Arnold, run. Davis will smear you, tell lies about you, and try to bury you under a mountain of fear. You'll be called every name in the book, and a few new ones Davis will invent, but you won't recognize yourself in the portrait of lies Davis and his political thugs will paint of you. . . .

Davis can run a dirty campaign better than anyone. Californians already know that. But he can't run the state, and Californians know that too. All the lies he'll tell won't matter much now. Ignore them. All the way to Sacramento.

Well, this will give people plenty to write about!

UPDATE: Andrew Sullivan has broken his vacation to endorse Arnold: "Yay! A pro-gay, pro-choice, hard-ass Republican!"

ANOTHER UPDATE: Tony Adragna has more -- and Will Vehrs is back posting at Quasipundit! We missed you, Will.

I should also note that Arnold's campaign is so far -- as predicted first here, then in much more thorough fashion by Robert Tagorda -- proceeding as predicted by his bodybuilding career. Wanna bet that used copies of Arnold: The Education of a Bodybuilder are to be found in Gray Davis headquarters already?



To: JohnM who wrote (4462)8/7/2003 10:45:14 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793681
 
The "Smart Money" was wrong. I have Taubman's new book on reserve, and was impressed him on "Booknotes" when he went over it.

WASHINGTON BUZZ
Philip Taubman Named NYT's Washington Bureau Chief

The New York Times today elevated Philip Taubman, longtime staff member and perennial deputy, to chief of its Washington bureau.

Jill Abramson, who's leaving the bureau-chief post to become one of two managing editors in New York, called staff members into her office at 11 AM to introduce Taubman as their new boss. Richard Berke, the local favorite for the post, was on hand to offer a welcome.

"It's great to be back," Taubman told The Washingtonian. "I think of this as a homecoming." Taubman, 55, says he has worked nearly half of his 24 years at the Times at the Washington bureau.

"Phil has significant credentials," notes one Times reporter. "Rick was disappointed, but he realized it was not in any way disrespecting of him."

Taubman's ascension should serve two purposes: It will calm the waters after the tumultuous reign of former executive editor Howell Raines, and it will ensure the Washington bureau a strong place in the newspaper's power structure.

"Phil is very well liked and very popular," says Martin Tolchin, who worked with Taubman years ago in the Washington bureau and now writes books. "He got along with everyone. He's absolutely a first-class journalist."

If the choice of Taubman can be deconstructed in Kremlinesque terms, he got the job because he has more than good credentials. His power trail within the Times runs deep and long.

Taubman's father, Howard, worked at the Times for 43 years, primarily as a music and drama critic. Phil Taubman joined the Times in 1979 and started reporting in the Washington bureau. He worked in Moscow and most recently has been a deputy editorial-page editor in New York.

Taubman rose to Washington editor when Howell Raines was bureau chief. He was essentially Raines's deputy. And when Raines ran the Times editorial page before becoming executive editor, Taubman was his assistant.

But Taubman also has close ties to Bill Keller, who succeeded Raines as executive editor. When Taubman served as Moscow bureau chief, Keller was on his staff, so he was Keller?s boss. Now Keller is Taubman's boss. Taubman is married to Felicity Barringer, a Times foreign-affairs writer.

Taubman was one of the most talkative Timesmen when Raines went down and Keller rose to replace him.

Of Raines, he was quoted in the Times as saying: "He had an almost uncanny ability to anticipate where stories were developing and to deploy the resources needed to cover them comprehensively. . . . I think the spirit of what Howell was trying to do was terrific."

When Keller got Raines's job, Taubman told the Baltimore Sun: "I don't think there's a better reporter and writer in journalism today."

Taubman is an accomplished reporter and writer. He won the George Polk Award in 1981 for a series of stories with Seymour Hersh and Jeff Gerth from the Washington bureau about rogue CIA agents. He won another Polk award in 1983 for foreign-policy reporting on Central America. Along with his many years writing from abroad and in Washington, Taubman came out this summer with a book about national security, Secret Empire: Eisenhower, the C.I.A. and the Hidden Story of America's Space Espionage.

Taubman's foreign experience and his work in both Washington and New York were among the reasons that Rick Berke, now the Washington editor, was not chosen to replace Jill Abramson.

Berke didn't return calls, but he did say at the meeting in Abramson's office to announce Taubman's appointment that he was a great choice. Taubman said he hoped Berke would remain as his deputy. Taubman will fill a post held by storied journalists of the Times. Michael Oreskes preceded Abramson, but the job also has been held by James Reston, Tom Wicker, Bill Kovach, Howell Raines, and R.W. Apple. For pure longevity, Taubman with his family ties trumps them all. He says he and his father have worked for every publisher of the New York Times, starting with his father and Adolph Ochs in 1929.

washingtonian.com./inwashington/buzz/taubman.html



To: JohnM who wrote (4462)8/7/2003 11:12:00 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793681
 
If you had a car accident and saw Dean get out of the other car and approach you, you might keep your door locked and your window up. If it was Leiberman, you would relax.

MARK MELLMAN - THE HILL

Reading into the polling numbers

In 2000, too many inaccurate conclusions were reached too quickly on the basis of overinterpreted poll data. Upon sober post-election reflection, analysts seemed to agree that ignoring margins of error by making too much of small day-to-day fluctuations was an error that should not be repeated.

But here we go again.

I should disclose that I have an interest in what follows; Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) is my client. But that does not change the facts.

First, a dull excursion into statistics. We all know that each number in a poll has a margin of error, based on the sample size. The margins of error on each number are independent of each other, so the margin of error on the margin between two candidates is twice the margin of error for the poll. Moreover, the margin of error for comparing two polls is about one and a half times the margin of error on each.

Finally, differences in methodology make comparing polls from two different organizations quite dangerous.

With that introduction, let?s evaluate the spate of headlines about the recent Howard Dean ?surge? for the Democratic presidential nomination.

An ARG New Hampshire poll in July showed Kerry with 25 percent; Dean, former governor of Vermont, with 19 percent; Sen. Joe Lieberman (Conn.) with 6 percent; and Rep. Richard Gephardt (Mo.) with 10 percent.

Do those data reflect a Dean surge? He has exactly the same percent he garnered in May. Kerry declined by 1 point, Gephardt by 2 and Lieberman by 6. The margin of error for comparison of those two polls is about plus or minus 6 points.

The Franklin Pierce poll was also heavily reported. The margin of error for comparing their April and July polls is about plus or minus 8. Between April and July, the Dean vote registered no change. Kerry declined by 2, Lieberman by 3 and Gephardt by 2. All of that change is well within the margin of error.

But if we reduce the margin of error by averaging those two July polls together with the Boston Herald poll (for which there is no earlier point of comparison), the results are Kerry 24 percent, Dean 23 percent and Lieberman and Gephardt both at 8 percent.

If anything, Kerry has held steady while Gephardt and Lieberman have declined a bit and Dean has improved slightly. That differs dramatically from earlier prognostications. Pundits predicted that Dean?s ?rise? would come at Kerry?s expense. In fact, Lieberman and Gephardt are the ones who may have paid the price.

California?s Field Poll reflects a similar dynamic. Field shows Kerry 1 point behind Dean. Since April, Kerry dropped 1 point and Dean rose by 9 while Lieberman fell 8 points and Gephardt shed 9. The 10-point margin of error for comparison means there may have been little movement at all. But if Dean did rise, it was not at Kerry?s expense. Rather Dean seems to have taken voters from Gephardt and Lieberman.

Iowa presents a slightly different case. After spending about a quarter of his total media budget, Dean has moved into first, ahead of Gephardt and Kerry, who have spent nothing on the air. No surprise here.

Four conclusions emerge from those polls:

? Dean may or may not have increased his support in California but probably has not moved at all in New Hampshire.

? Kerry and Dean are tied in New Hampshire and California.

? To whatever extent Dean has risen, it has been at the expense of Lieberman and Gephardt but has not hurt Kerry, as originally predicted.

? If you go on TV alone, your numbers will go up, at least temporarily.

All in all, it is a less exiting story than ?Dean surges? but rather more accurate.

Mark S. Mellman is president of The Mellman Group and has worked for Democratic candidates and causes since 1982.
thehill.com



To: JohnM who wrote (4462)8/7/2003 12:13:08 PM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 793681
 
If any of you wonder what is wrong with Western Philosophy, read this and realize that Derrida is considered almost a God by Academia.

9/11 AND GLOBAL TERRORISM
A Dialogue with Jacques Derrida

Borradori: September 11 [le 11 septembre] gave us the impression of being a major event, one of the most important historical events we will witness in our lifetime, especially for those of us who never lived through a world war. Do you agree?

Derrida: Le 11 septembre, as you say, or, since we have agreed to speak two languages, "September 11." We will have to return later to this question of language. As well as to this act of naming: a date and nothing more. When you say "September 11" you are already citing, are you not? You are inviting me to speak here by recalling, as if in quotation marks, a date or a dating that has taken over our public space and our private lives for five weeks now. Something fait date, I would say in a French idiom, something marks a date, a date in history; that is always what's most striking, the very impact of what is at least felt, in an apparently immediate way, to be an event that truly marks, that truly makes its mark, a singular and, as they say here, "unprecedented" event. I say "apparently immediate" because this "feeling" is actually less spontaneous than it appears: it is to a large extent conditioned, constituted, if not actually constructed, circulated at any rate through the media by means of a prodigious techno-socio-political machine. "To mark a date in history" presupposes, in any case, that "something" comes or happens for the first and last time, "something" that we do not yet really know how to identify, determine, recognize, or analyze but that should remain from here on in unforgettable: an ineffaceable event in the shared archive of a universal calendar, that is, a supposedly universal calendar, for these are?and I want to insist on this at the outset?only suppositions and presuppositions. Unrefined and dogmatic, or else carefully considered, organized, calculated, strategic?or all of these at once. For the index pointing toward this date, the bare act, the minimal deictic, the minimalist aim of this dating, also marks something else. Namely, the fact that we perhaps have no concept and no meaning available to us to name in any other way this "thing" that has just happened, this supposed "event." An act of "international terrorism," for example, and we will return to this, is anything but a rigorous concept that would help us grasp the singularity of what we will be trying to discuss. "Something" took place, we have the feeling of not having seen it coming, and certain consequences undeniably follow upon the "thing." But this very thing, the place and meaning of this "event," remains ineffable, like an intuition without concept, like a unicity with no generality on the horizon or with no horizon at all, out of range for a language that admits its powerlessness and so is reduced to pronouncing mechanically a date, repeating it endlessly, as a kind of ritual incantation, a conjuring poem, a journalistic litany or rhetorical refrain that admits to not knowing what it's talking about. We do not in fact know what we are saying or naming in this way: September 11, le 11 septembre, September 11. The brevity of the appellation (September 11, 9/11) stems not only from an economic or rhetorical necessity. The telegram of this metonymy?a name, a number?points out the unqualifiable by recognizing that we do not recognize or even cognize that we do not yet know how to qualify, that we do not know what we are talking about.

This is the first, indisputable effect of what occurred (whether it was calculated, well calculated, or not), precisely on September 11, not far from here: we repeat this, we must repeat it, and it is all the more necessary to repeat it insofar as we do not really know what is being named in this way, as if to exorcise two times at one go: on the one hand, to conjure away, as if by magic, the "thing" itself, the fear or the terror it inspires (for repetition always protects by neutralizing, deadening, distancing a traumatism, and this is true for the repetition of the televised images we will speak of later), and, on the other hand, to deny, as close as possible to this act of language and this enunciation, our powerlessness to name in an appropriate fashion, to characterize, to think the thing in question, to get beyond the mere deictic of the date: something terrible took place on September 11, and in the end we don't know what. For however outraged we might be at the violence, however much we might genuinely deplore?as I do, along with everyone else?the number of dead, no one will really be convinced that this is, in the end, what it's all about. I will come back to this later; for the moment we are simply preparing ourselves to say something about it.

I've been in New York for three weeks now. Not only is it impossible not to speak on this subject, but you feel or are made to feel that it is actually forbidden, that you do not have the right, to begin speaking of anything, especially in public, without ceding to this obligation, without making an always somewhat blind reference to this date (and this was already the case in China, where I was on September 11, and then in Frankfurt on September 22). I gave in regularly to this injunction, I admit; and in a certain sense I am doing so again by taking part in this friendly interview with you, though trying always, beyond the commotion and the most sincere compassion, to appeal to questions and to a "thought" (among other things, a real political thought) of what, it seems, has just taken place on September 11, just a few steps from here, in Manhattan or, not too far away, in Washington, D.C.

I believe always in the necessity of being attentive first of all to this phenomenon of language, naming, and dating, to this repetition compulsion (at once rhetorical, magical, and poetic). To what this compulsion signifies, translates, or betrays. Not in order to isolate ourselves in language, as people in too much of a rush would like us to believe, but on the contrary, in order to try to understand what is going on precisely beyond language and what is pushing us to repeat endlessly and without knowing what we are talking about, precisely there where language and the concept come up against their limits: "September 11, September 11, le 11 septembre, 9/11."

We must try to know more, to take our time and hold onto our freedom so as to begin to think this first effect of the so-called event: From where does this menacing injunction itself come to us? How is it being forced upon us? Who or what gives us this threatening order (others would already say this terrorizing if not terrorist imperative): name, repeat, rename "September 11," "le 11 septembre," even when you do not yet know what you are saying and are not yet thinking what you refer to in this way. I agree with you: without any doubt, this "thing," "September 11," "gave us the impression of being a major event." But what is an impression in this case? And an event? And especially a "major event"? Taking your word?or words?for it, I will underscore more than one precaution. I will do so in a seemingly "empiricist" style, though aiming beyond empiricism. It cannot be denied, as an empiricist of the eighteenth century would quite literally say, that there was an "impression" there, and the impression of what you call in English?and this is not fortuitous?a "major event." I insist here on the English because it is the language we speak here in New York, even though it is neither your language nor mine; but I also insist because the injunction comes first of all from a place where English predominates. I am not saying this only because the United States was targeted, hit, or violated on its own soil for the first time in almost two centuries?since 1812 to be exact?but because the world order that felt itself targeted through this violence is dominated largely by the Anglo-American idiom, an idiom that is indissociably linked to the political discourse that dominates the world stage, to international law, diplomatic institutions, the media, and the greatest technoscientific, capitalist, and military power. And it is very much a question of the still enigmatic but also critical essence of this hegemony. By critical, I mean at once decisive, potentially decisionary, decision-making, and in crisis: today more vulnerable and threatened than ever.

Whether this "impression" is justified or not, it is in itself an event, let us never forget it, especially when it is, though in quite different ways, a properly global effect. The "impression" cannot be dissociated from all the affects, interpretations, and rhetoric that have at once reflected, communicated, and "globalized" it from everything that also and first of all formed, produced, and made it possible. The "impression" thus resembles "the very thing" that produced it. Even if the so-called "thing" cannot be reduced to it. Even if, therefore, the event itself cannot be reduced to it. The event is made up of the "thing" itself (that which happens or comes) and the impression (itself at once "spontaneous" and "controlled") that is given, left, or made by the so-called "thing." We could say that the impression is "informed," in both senses of the word: a predominant system gave it form, and this form then gets run through an organized information machine (language, communication, rhetoric, image, media, and so on). This informational apparatus is from the very outset political, technical, economic. But we can and, I believe, must (and this duty is at once philosophical and political) distinguish between the supposedly brute fact, the "impression," and the interpretation. It is of course just about impossible, I realize, to distinguish the "brute" fact from the system that produces the "information" about it. But it is necessary to push the analysis as far as possible. To produce a "major event," it is, sad to say, not enough, and this has been true for some time now, to cause the deaths of some four thousand people, and especially "civilians," in just a few seconds by means of so-called advanced technology. Many examples could be given from the world wars (for you specified that this event appears even more important to those who "have never lived through a world war") but also from after these wars, examples of quasi-instantaneous mass murders that were not recorded, interpreted, felt, and presented as "major events." They did not give the "impression," at least not to everyone, of being unforgettable catastrophes.

We must thus ask why this is the case and distinguish between two "impressions." On the one hand, compassion for the victims and indignation over the killings; our sadness and condemnation should be without limits, unconditional, unimpeachable; they are responding to an undeniable "event," beyond all simulacra and all possible virtualization; they respond with what might be called the heart and they go straight to the heart of the event. On the other hand, the interpreted, interpretative, informed impression, the conditional evaluation that makes us believe that this is a "major event." Belief, the phenomenon of credit and of accreditation, , constitutes an essential dimension of the evaluation, of the dating, indeed, of the compulsive inflation of which we've been speaking. By distinguishing impression from belief, I continue to make as if I were privileging this language of English empiricism, which we would be wrong to resist here. All the philosophical questions remain open, unless they are opening up again in a perhaps new and original way: what is an impression? What is a belief? But especially: what is an event worthy of this name? And a "major" event, that is, one that is actually more of an "event," more actually an "event," than ever? An event that would bear witness, in an exemplary or hyperbolic fashion, to the very essence of an event or even to an event beyond essence? For could an event that still conforms to an essence, to a law or to a truth, indeed to a concept of the event, ever be a major event? A major event should be so unforeseeable and irruptive that it disturbs even the horizon of the concept or essence on the basis of which we believe we recognize an event as such. That is why all the "philosophical" questions remain open, perhaps even beyond philosophy itself, as soon as it is a matter of thinking the event.
<http://www.press.uchicago.edu/Images/Chicago/pixblack.gif> <http://www.press.uchicago.edu/Images/Chicago/pixblack.gif> <http://www.press.uchicago.edu/Images/Chicago/pixblack.gif>

Borradori: Whether or not September 11 is an event of major importance, what role do you see for philosophy? Can philosophy help us to understand what has happened?

Derrida: Such an "event" surely calls for a philosophical response. Better, a response that calls into question, at their most fundamental level, the most deep-seated conceptual presuppositions in philosophical discourse. The concepts with which this "event" has most often been described, named, categorized, are the products of a "dogmatic slumber" from which only a new philosophical reflection can awaken us, a reflection on philosophy, most notably on political philosophy and its heritage. The prevailing discourse, that of the media and of the official rhetoric, relies too readily on received concepts like "war" or "terrorism" (national or international).

A critical reading of Schmitt, for example, would thus prove very useful. On the one hand, so as to follow Schmitt as far as possible in distinguishing classical war (a direct and declared confrontation between two enemy states, according to the long tradition of European law) from "civil war" and "partisan war" (in its modern forms, even though it appears, Schmitt acknowledges, as early as the beginning of the nineteenth century). But, on the other hand, we would also have to recognize, against Schmitt, that the violence that has now been unleashed is not the result of "war" (the expression "war on terrorism" thus being one of the most confused, and we must analyze this confusion and the interests such an abuse of rhetoric actually serve). Bush speaks of "war," but he is in fact incapable of identifying the enemy against whom he declares that he has declared war. It is said over and over that neither the civilian population of Afghanistan nor its armies are the enemies of the United States. Assuming that "bin Laden" is here the sovereign decision-maker, everyone knows that he is not Afghan, that he has been disavowed by his own country (by every "country" and state, in fact, almost without exception), that his training owes much to the United States and that, of course, he is not alone. The states that help him indirectly do not do so as states. No state as such supports him publicly. As for states that "harbor" terrorist networks, it is difficult to identify them as such. The United States and Europe, London and Berlin, are also sanctuaries, places of training or formation and information for all the "terrorists" of the world. No geography, no "territorial" determination, is thus pertinent any longer for locating the seat of these new technologies of transmission or aggression. To say it all too quickly and in passing, to amplify and clarify just a bit what I said earlier about an absolute threat whose origin is anonymous and not related to any state, such "terrorist" attacks already no longer need planes, bombs, or kamikazes: it is enough to infiltrate a strategically important computer system and introduce a virus or some other disruptive element to paralyze the economic, military, and political resources of an entire country or continent. And this can be attempted from just about anywhere on earth, at very little expense and with minimal means. The relationship between earth, terra territory, and terror has changed, and it is necessary to know that this is because of knowledge, that is, because of technoscience. It is technoscience that blurs the distinction between war and terrorism. In this regard, when compared to the possibilities for destruction and chaotic disorder that are in reserve, for the future, in the computerized networks of the world, "September 11" is still part of the archaic theater of violence aimed at striking the imagination. One will be able to do even worse tomorrow, invisibly, in silence, more quickly and without any bloodshed, by attacking the computer and informational networks on which the entire life (social, economic, military, and so on) of a "great nation," of the greatest power on earth, depends. One day it might be said: "September 11"?those were the ("good") old days of the last war. Things were still of the order of the gigantic: visible and enormous! What size, what height! There has been worse since. Nanotechnologies of all sorts are so much more powerful and invisible, uncontrollable, capable of creeping in everywhere. They are the micrological rivals of microbes and bacteria. Yet our unconscious is already aware of this; it already knows it, and that's what's scary.

If this violence is not a "war" between states, it is not a "civil war" either, or a "partisan war," in Schmitt's sense, insofar as it does not involve, like most such wars, a national insurrection or liberation movement aimed at taking power on the ground of a nation-state (even if one of the aims, whether secondary or primary, of the "bin Laden" network is to destabilize Saudi Arabia, an ambiguous ally of the United States, and put a new state power in place). Even if one were to insist on speaking here of "terrorism," this appellation now covers a new concept and new distinctions.

press.uchicago.edu



To: JohnM who wrote (4462)8/7/2003 4:14:35 PM
From: KLP  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 793681
 
Tell you what...if any of us see, or hear Rush telling a lie...or Michael Moore as well, we can bring it up. Moore could try his hand at radio, like Rush. But, problem is, not many folks like Moore..he's a left wing Archie Bunker, except not funny....