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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neocon who wrote (110394)	8/7/2003 4:46:38 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi Neocon; Re: "I will see if I can find a contemporaneous news account without having to spend money on archived material. If not, I am willing to drop it." The best place to look is on SI. Here are some links providing evidence that the US was going to lose the UNSC vote authorizing war, even ignoring the multiple vetoes that the sorry idea was going to attract from the permanent members: Mexico opposes U.S. war plan ... UN watchers say that even if France, Russia or China do not veto a second resolution, the United States has, in spite of its lobbying effort, only five sure votes for a use-of-force mandate. ... #reply-18584291 The United States and Britain have decided that their strategy in the United Nations will be to try to persuade 9 of the 15 members of the Security Council to back a new resolution authorizing the use of force against Iraq, and then to challenge France, Russia or China to veto the will of the Council's majority, administration officials said today. ... It takes nine votes to pass a resolution, and the United States and Britain have only Bulgaria and Spain on their side. ... #reply-18609223 Consider the astonishing fact that Vicente Fox, president of Mexico, appears unwilling to cast his U.N. Security Council vote in America's favor. #reply-18624171 A weekend of intense diplomacy ? with senior State Department officials in China, Russia, Europe and Africa ? and presidential calls to the leaders of France and Chile ? failed to nudge a single vote. Mexico is still resisting pressure from both the United States and Spain. And several other countries among the 10 nonpermanent members of the Security Council are considering withholding their votes altogether to prevent passage. ... The United States also plans to hold out the prospect of a role in postwar Iraq to lure council votes. "We'll put it to them simply: Do you want to be part of reconstruction and all that means ? or leave it to us? They'll either want a seat at the table over the next couple of years or have to opt out now," said the well-placed U.S. official. #reply-18624364 The Bush administration believes that it is one vote shy of having nine of 15 votes needed on a U.N. Security Council resolution that sets a Monday deadline for Iraqi compliance, a senior U.S. State Department official said, and officials are focusing diplomatic energies on Mexico and Chile to secure their backing. ... #reply-18690085 Nadine Carroll / Steven den Beste, March 13, 2003 Which means that we can now pull a switcheroo on the French. Instead of holding a vote, having it be badly defeated, and letting the French be able to claim that they did not veto because there was overwhelming opposition, we can now decide to not bring it to a vote after all, because of the clear fact that France would not permit it to pass, thus putting the French in the position of having sole responsibility for the lack of UNSC approval for the war we're going to fight anyway. #reply-18698879 -- Carl