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To: ALTERN8 who wrote (6625)8/7/2003 7:02:35 PM
From: Sam Citron  Respond to of 13403
 
OT XMSR

I'm glad we now have a datapoint in our case study on the wisdom of buying shares on the day of significant price weakness. In spite of Merrill Lynch's defense, I tend to think that same day purchases generally tend to be premature, for reasons I stated earlier. In this particular case, my main point of contention with bulls is that they may be overly optimistic in their assumptions of future satellite performance and resulting operating costs. Satellite costs have to be rising as a result of Loral's BK, increasing complexity of these birds, and increasing performance anomalies. It wont necessarily be easy or cheap to fix the irregularities of the Boeing 702. Satellite insurance costs are skyrocketing. And if new birds only last 6.75 years instead of 17 years, it's going to cost a lot more money to maintain quality of service. Somewhere along the line these costs will have to be borne by the consumer. Unlike the bull case that this is a nonrecurring accounting issue, due to increased depreciation and negotiation issues with insurers, I am concerned that it may be a setback on the timetable to breakeven cashflow unless prices are increased.