The Conceited Empire Emmanuel Todd compares the US to 16th century Spain, arguing that US economic power is being undermined by the decline of its industrial base and its increased dependence on other countries to feed its consumption. The power and influence of the United States is being overestimated. 2.5 million manufacturing jobs have been lost to other countries in Bush's 34 months at the helm.
A historian credited with predicting the downfall of the Soviet Union in the 1970s now says that the US has been on its way out for the last decade
by Martin A. Senn and Felix Lautenschlager
translated by Andreas Artz
07/26/03: The power and influence of the United States is being overestimated, claims French historian and demographer Emmanuel Todd. "There will be no American Empire." "The world is too large and dynamic to be controlled by one power." According to Todd, whose 1976 book predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, there is no question: the decline of America the Superpower has already
begun.
Emmanuel Todd compares the US to 16th century Spain, arguing that US economic power is being undermined by the decline of its industrial base and its increased dependence on other countries to feed its consumption. The power and influence of the United States is being overestimated, claims
French historian and demographer Emmanuel Todd. "There will be no American Empire." "The world is too large and dynamic to be controlled by one power."
According to Todd, whose 1976 book predicted the fall of the Soviet Union, there is no question: the decline of America the Superpower has already begun.
This article was originally published in Neue Zuricher Zeitung (The New Zuricher, Sunday morning).
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NZZ: Mr. Todd, you write that America is economically, militarily, and
ideologically too weak to actually control the world. This would gladden
many anti-Americans. But how is this anything but the wishful thinking of an
intellectual who is the product of the French US critical tradition?
ET: This is neither wishful thinking nor anti-Americanism. Why would I have
been so prominently criticised by the left? The French career anti-American
paper "Le Monde diplomatique", was the only major paper that remained
conspicuously silent on my book. The over-estimation of America is
fundamental to these people. It is on this topic that they agree with the
American ultra-conservatives: the former to demonize, the latter to
aggrandize.
You on the other hand can be accused of underestimating the United States.
On the contrary, the US is still the most powerful nation in the world
today, but there are many indicators that they are about to relinquish their
position as solitary superpower. In my 1976 book, La chute finale (Before
the Fall: The End of Soviet Domination), I based my prediction of the fall
of the Soviet Union on the relevant indicators of the time. An analysis of
current demographic, cultural, military, economic, and ideological factors
leads me to conclude that the remaining pole of the former bipolar world
order will not remain alone in its position. The world has become too large
and complex to accept the predominance of one power. There will not be an
American Empire.
Nevertheless, if others are to believed, this empire has already been long
in existence. "Get Used to It" was a recent headline in the New York Times
Weekend Magazine.
That is very interesting. Now that the concept no longer corresponds to
reality, it becomes commonplace. While there actually was a basis in
reality, there was scarcely a mention of the concept.
Then you are of the opinion that there was an American empire at one point?
The American hegemony from the end of WW II into the late 1980s in military,
economic, and ideological terms definitely had imperial qualities. In 1945
fully half the manufactured goods in the world originated in the US. And
although there was a communist bloc in Eurasia, East Germany, and North
Korea, the strong American military, the navy and air force, exercised
strategic control over the rest of the globe, with the support and
understanding of many allies, whose common goal was the fight against
communism. Although communism had some dispersed support among
intellectuals, workers, and peasant groups, the power and influence of the
US was by and large with the agreement of a majority throughout the world.
It was a benevolent empire. The Marshall Plan was an exemplary political and
economic strategy. America was, for decades, a 'good' superpower.
And now it is a bad one?
It has, above all, become a weak one. The US no longer has the might to
control the large strategic players, primarily Germany and Japan. Their
industrial capacity is clearly smaller than that of Europe and approximately
equal to that of Japan. With twice the population, this is no great
accomplishment. Their trade deficit meanwhile, is in the order of $500
billion per year. Their military potential is nevertheless still the largest
by far, but is declining and consistently over estimated. The use of
military bases is dependant on the good will of their allies, many of which
are not as willing as before. The theatrical military activism against
inconsequential rogue states that we are currently witnessing plays out
against this backdrop. It is a sign of weakness, not of strength. But
weakness makes for unpredictability. The US is about to become a problem for
the world, where we have previously been accustomed to seeing a solution in
them.
Assuming you are right: how did this budding empire slide so quickly into
decline?
Further reading:
"The Eagle Has Crash Landed", Immanuel Wallerstein's lead article in Foreign
Policy a year ago, made a very similar argument: US power is in decline, but
it can still do a lot of damage on its way out.
"'A Dream Only American Power Can Inspire': The Project for the New American
Century's vision of global military dominance", which appeared in issue #1
of the Dominion, examines the thinking of the neoconservatives who hope to
wield US military might for a long time to come. |
