Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : China Warehouse- More Than Crockery -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RealMuLan who wrote (236)	8/9/2003 4:14:33 PM
From: RealMuLan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6370

Asia Pacific to provide highest economic growth of any global region through 2007 August 09, 2003 Asia Pacific to provide highest economic growth of any global region through 2007 The Asia-Pacific, excluding Japan, will become the fastest growing regional economic block for the period 2003 to 2007, according to a new report from the well-regarded Economist Intelligence Unit. The EIU report predicts average growth for the Asia-Pacific excluding Japan at 5.9 percent through 2007. However the predicted aggregate growth is not evenly spread among national economies. The developing economies of China and India will continue to dominate growth in other countries, including Japan, with the EIU forecasting annual growth in China for 2003 of 7 percent, and 5.7% for India. Additionally the EIU report expects India to out-pace 2003 growth in 2004/2005. Most observers are are noting that one industry sector driver for growth for China and India will be the IT industry, though growth in this sector globally is slowing. India is already well established as both an innovator, and back-office/low labor cost centerer for the IT industry. China on the other hand is a relative new-comer, but shares with India a readily-available low-cost labor market, and in addition retains competitive advantages in consolidation and support services for manufacturing businesses moving in and starting up in China. The main economic driver for China however will be a strong domestic consumer demand and the export sector, while India's growth will be significantly spurred by the services sector. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts weak or limited growth for the rest of Asia, with South East Asia most hit by the consistent trend of both Asian and International Multi-National Companies to move their manufacturing bases to China. For example, the average forecast for the 10 member ASEAN group, made up of South East Asian nations, is only 4.4%, which the EIU report describes as "only slightly faster than Eastern Europe". Other annual economic growth rate predictions for individual countries for 2003 include Hong Kong (1.1%), Singapore (2%), South Korea (2.8%), Indonesia (3.2%), Malaysia (3.9%), Philippines (4%), Thailand (4.8%), and Vietnam (2003-2007 - 7%). The figures for ASEAN seem in-line or slightly more pessimistic than the estimates provided by ASEAN finance ministers for 2003 growth in a Manila meeting yesterday, of 4.4 to 4.5%. These estimates took into account the events in Jakarta earlier this week. ASEAN countries registered an aggregated growth rate of 4.4% in 2003, and 3% in 2002, meaning the latest estimates by ASEAN finance ministers see growth in 2004 at similar levels to 2003. However longer term trends may well reflect a significant move of economic growth focus to the Chinese and Indian economies, representing the two most highly populated countries in the world by a long way. Strategically, South East Asian and East Asian governments and economic policy makers have been concerned about the shift of interest to China, and secondarily India as their competitive advantages of a low cost labor force and overheads have become eroded over the past few years. Some countries, notably Singapore and Malaysia retain some advantages of an English speaking workforce and skill-level over China, but even this factor will decline as training and education is given more priority by the Chinese government. apmforum.com