SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: unclewest who wrote (4662)8/11/2003 8:47:09 PM
From: NickSE  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 793800
 
THE PENTAGON’S NEW MAP
IT EXPLAINS WHY WE’RE GOING TO WAR, AND WHY WE’LL KEEP GOING TO WAR.
by THOMAS P.M. BARNETT, U.S. NAVAL WAR COLLEGE
thurisa.org

[....]

HANDICAPPING THE GAP:

My list of real trouble for the world in the 1990s, today, and tomorrow, starting in our own backyard:

1) HAITI - Efforts to build a nation in 1990s were disappointing • We have been going into Haiti for about a century, and we will go back when boat people start flowing in during the next crisis—without fail.

2) COLOMBIA - Country is broken into several lawless chunks, with private armies, rebels, narcos, and legit government all working the place over. • Drugs still flow. • Ties between drug cartels and rebels grew over decade, and now we know of links to international terror, too. • We get involved, keep promising more, and keep getting nowhere. Piecemeal, incremental approach is clearly not working.

3) BRAZIL AND ARGENTINA - Both on the bubble between the Gap and the Functioning Core. Both played the globalization game to hilt in nineties and both feel abused now. The danger of falling off the wagon and going self-destructively leftist or rightist is very real. • No military threats to speak of, except against their own democracies (the return of the generals). • South American alliance MERCOSUR tries to carve out its own reality while Washington pushes Free Trade of Americas, but we may have to settle for agreements with Chile or for pulling only Chile into bigger NAFTA. Will Brazil and Argentina force themselves to be left out and then resent it? • Amazon a large ungovernable area for Brazil, plus all that environmental damage continues to pile up. Will the world eventually care enough to step in?

4) FORMER YUGOSLAVIA - For most of the past decade, served as shorthand for Europe's inability to get its act together even in its own backyard. • Will be long-term baby-sitting job for the West.

5) CONGO AND RWANDA/BURUNDI - Two to three million dead in central Africa from all the fighting across the decade. How much worse can it get before we try to do something, anything? Three million more dead? • Congo is a carrion state—not quite dead or alive, and everyone is feeding off it. • And then there's AIDS.

6) ANGOLA - Never really has solved its ongoing civil war (1.5 million dead in past quarter century). • Basically at conflict with self since mid-seventies, when Portuguese "empire" fell. • Life expectancy right now is under forty!

7) SOUTH AFRICA - The only functioning Core country in Africa, but it's on the bubble. Lots of concerns that South Africa is a gateway country for terror networks trying to access Core through back door. • Endemic crime is biggest security threat. • And then there's AIDS.

8) ISRAEL-PALESTINE - Terror will not abate—there is no next generation in the West Bank that wants anything but more violence. • Wall going up right now will be the Berlin Wall of twenty-first century. Eventually, outside powers will end up providing security to keep the two sides apart (this divorce is going to be very painful). • There is always the chance of somebody (Saddam in desperation?) trying to light up Israel with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and triggering the counterpunch we all fear Israel is capable of.

9) SAUDI ARABIA - The let-them-eat-cake mentality of royal mafia will eventually trigger violent instability from within. • Paying terrorists protection money to stay away will likewise eventually fail, so danger will come from outside, too. • Huge young population with little prospects for future, and a ruling elite whose main source of income is a declining long-term asset. And yet the oil will matter to enough of the world far enough into the future that the United States will never let this place really tank, no matter what it takes.

10) IRAQ - Question of when and how, not if. • Then there's the huge rehab job. We will have to build a security regime for the whole region.

11) SOMALIA - Chronic lack of governance. • Chronic food problems. • Chronic problem of terrorist-network infiltration. • We went in with Marines and Special Forces and left disillusioned—a poor man's Vietnam for the 1990s. Will be hard-pressed not to return.

12) IRAN - Counterrevolution has already begun: This time the students want to throw the mullahs out. • Iran wants to be friends with U.S., but resurgence of fundamentalists may be the price we pay to invade Iraq. • The mullahs support terror, and their push for WMD is real: Does this make them inevitable target once Iraq and North Korea are settled?

13) AFGHANISTAN - Lawless, violent place even before the Taliban stepped onstage and started pulling it back toward seventh century (short trip) • Government sold to Al Qaeda for pennies on the dollar. • Big source of narcotics (heroin). • Now U.S. stuck there for long haul, rooting out hardcore terrorists/rebels who've chosen to stay.

14) PAKISTAN - There is always the real danger of their having the bomb and using it out of weakness in conflict with India (very close call with December 13, 2001, New Delhi bombing). • Out of fear that Pakistan may fall to radical Muslims, we end up backing hard-line military types we don't really trust. • Clearly infested with Al Qaeda. • Was on its way to being declared a rogue state by U.S. until September 11 forced us to cooperate again. Simply put, Pakistan doesn't seem to control much of its own territory.

15) NORTH KOREA - Marching toward WMD. • Bizarre recent behavior of Pyongyang (admitting kidnappings, breaking promises on nukes, shipping weapons to places we disapprove of and getting caught, signing agreements with Japan that seem to signal new era, talking up new economic zone next to China) suggests it is intent (like some mental patient) on provoking crises. • We live in fear of Kim's Götterdämmerung scenario (he is nuts). • Population deteriorating—how much more can they stand? • After Iraq, may be next.

16) INDONESIA - Usual fears about breakup and "world's largest Muslim population." • Casualty of Asian economic crisis (really got wiped out). • Hot spot for terror networks, as we have discovered.

New/integrating members of Core I worry may be lost in coming year:

17) CHINA - Running lots of races against itself in terms of reducing the unprofitable state-run enterprises while not triggering too much unemployment, plus dealing with all that growth in energy demand and accompanying pollution, plus coming pension crisis as population ages. • New generation of leaders looks suspiciously like unimaginative technocrats—big question if they are up to task. • If none of those macro pressures trigger internal instability, there is always the fear that the Communist party won't go quietly into the night in terms of allowing more political freedoms and that at some point, economic freedom won't be enough for the masses. Right now the CCP is very corrupt and mostly a parasite on the country, but it still calls the big shots in Beijing. • Army seems to be getting more disassociated from society and reality, focusing ever more myopically on countering U.S. threat to their ability to threaten Taiwan, which remains the one flash point that could matter. • And then there's AIDS.

18) RUSSIA - Putin has long way to go in his dictatorship of the law; the mafia and robber barons still have too much power. • Chechnya and the near-abroad in general will drag Moscow into violence, but it will be kept within the federation by and large. • U.S. moving into Central Asia is a testy thing—a relationship that can sour if not handled just right. • Russia has so many internal problems (financial weakness, environmental damage, et cetera) and depends too much on energy exports to feel safe (does bringing Iraq back online after invasion kill their golden goose?). • And then there's AIDS.

19) INDIA - First, there's always the danger of nuking it out with Pakistan. • Short of that, Kashmir pulls them into conflict with Pak, and that involves U.S. now in way it never did before due to war on terror. • India is microcosm of globalization: the high tech, the massive poverty, the islands of development, the tensions between cultures/civilizations/religions/et cetera. It is too big to succeed, and too big to let fail. • Wants to be big responsible military player in region, wants to be strong friend of U.S., and also wants desperately to catch up with China in development (the self-imposed pressure to succeed is enormous). • And then there's AIDS.



To: unclewest who wrote (4662)8/12/2003 4:14:30 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793800
 
Learning On the Fly
In Iraq, U.S. troops are doing jobs they weren't trained for, and picking up new skills as they go.
by Christian Lowe
08/12/2003 12:00:00 AM

Baghdad
AS THE SAYING GOES: Necessity is the mother of invention. For the U.S. soldiers keeping the peace and routing out insurgents in central Iraq, it's often a lesson in improvisation and learning "on the job."

From patrolling the busy streets in search of information on the whereabouts of Saddam Hussein and his loyalists, to arresting looters and thieves, to house-to-house raids and prisoner snatches, U.S. troops here are conducting operations for which many were ill-prepared before they arrived here. And in some cases it seems that the units are in over their heads.

But that hasn't stopped the soldiers and their commanders from executing their day-to-day missions--sometimes at extreme risk to themselves and Iraqis caught in the crossfire. And from the looks of it, slowly but surely, the U.S. forces here are learning to get it right.

Baghdad is teeming with troops--most of them from units unaccustomed to peacekeeping work. The majority are newly deployed to Iraq.

"We're doing stuff here that's well beyond the realm of what we normally do," said Capt. Brett Bair with the 3rd Squadron, 7th U.S. Cavalry Regiment, just before a pre-dawn raid on seven houses suspected of sheltering Baath party holdouts and Fedayeen organizers in the central city of Balad.

South of Baghdad, the Marines who control the area are in the same boat. After a month of heavy fighting to topple Hussein's regime, they had to quickly change gears and focus on stabilization and security operations in their new area of responsibility. Unlike the soldiers deployed to the areas in and around Baghdad who are relatively green, these Marines had few problems adapting, owing to their combat-honed mental toughness and their improvisational ethos.

In a measure of their effectiveness adapting to their new peacekeeping mission, the Marines haven't lost a single trooper to enemy fire since the end of the war. By contrast, Army forces in the Sunni Triangle--which encompasses the area from Ramadi in the west, to Baghdad in the east and Tikrit in the north--have suffered 56 deaths since the end of the war on May 1, most of those soldiers from newly deployed units.

Yet even as the forces improvise and learn, some operations are not without missteps.

On a July 1 predawn raid to capture Baath party leaders and resistance organizers during Operation Sidewinder, soldiers of the 3-7 Cav--soldiers who normally destroy enemy forces from the turrets of their Bradley fighting vehicles--at times seemed out of their element.

While troopers stacked against the retaining wall of a suspect's compound, a Humvee crashed into the front gate to gain access. The soldiers streamed into the house, quickly pulling out the residents--many of them women and children--and flex-cuffed the men face-down on the tile driveway.

As the interpreters began interrogating the suspects, it was quickly learned that the target house was the one next door.

The raid was reorganized and executed once again, this time catching the Baath leader they'd been after. "Not exactly the smoothest operation in military history, but we got the job done," said unit commander Bair with a shrug.

On the next raid, the cavalrymen milled around the streets looking for their target house down alleyways lit by dim street lamps. The power was supposed to have been cut to provide the cover of darkness, but hadn't.

The troops moved nervously through the alleys, each a potential ambush spot. Some soldiers scanned the lighted windows for snipers, while others shuffled ahead disinterestedly.

Once the target house was found the soldiers stacked up against the outside wall, many nervously watching the man in front of them, following his every move. Some clutched fully equipped M-4 rifles, others the more bulky M-16, and still others were armed only with 9mm pistols--not exactly the image of men in their element.

But this mission, too, was successful and everyone arrived back to the base camp unhurt. A little rest, some chow, and they'd soon be off on another mission, practicing their new skills again, hoping that their on-the job training doesn't end in bloodshed.

As these troops--both Marines and soldiers--continue to launch daring raids to knock out resistance, they'll begin to find the ground under their feet, to harden to their new battle of securing the peace. But it will take more time and it will not be without cost.

Christian Lowe is a staff writer for Army Times Publishing and a contributing writer to The Daily Standard.

weeklystandard.com



To: unclewest who wrote (4662)8/12/2003 8:35:09 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793800
 
Mike, posting this one to you is like poking a junkyard dog with a sharp stick. :>)

SNARK BLOG:

Clueless in Seattle

The Seattle School District faces a $35 million budget shortfall and the need to recruit a superintendent. The Seattle Education Association's response to this crisis includes endorsing Brita Butler-Wall for school board. Butler-Wall's main objective is to ban all sweetened beverages (including chocolate milk) from the public schools. She is also in favor of putting limits on military recruiters in the high schools because:

Many veterans have found that joining the military may open up a new career, but it also may result in injury, disease or death to oneself or to the citizens of other nations. The second possibility was not mentioned in any of the recruiting materials found at Garfield High School recently.

And unless every brochure mentions these points, how else would a high school senior know what the military does?

usefulwork.com



To: unclewest who wrote (4662)8/14/2003 4:55:18 PM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793800
 
Damn! This article is right on. The Styker story is true, and I had not realized who my new Senator was going to be. They have a tight little "ethnic Japanese" Democratic party over here. I knew Peter Schoomaker was SO, but not that he had been Delta.

Purge of the Princelings?
Moving toward jointness.

When Congress gets back from its August recess, you'll hear some caterwauling about how Big Dog is conducting a political purge of the Army. But what is going on in the Army right now is apparently not directed by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and is not even a purge. But it may be the beginnings of one.

As soon as Mr. Rumsfeld took office, his plan to transform America's military ran into various levels of resistance in each of the services. The Navy was shaken by the thought that the aircraft carrier would have to evolve from its current form. The Air Force didn't want to hear that its new fighter ? the F-22 ? wasn't needed as much as it had been in the Cold War. But nowhere in Fort Fumble did he encounter utter refusal to change except in the Army.

According to an Army source, shortly after his accession Mr. Rumsfeld walked into the Tank ? the vault-like conference room on the fourth floor of the Pentagon in which top-secret matters can be discussed freely ? for a meeting with the Clintons' Army chief of staff, General Eric Shinseki. Shinseki is the protégé of Hawaii Senator Daniel Inouye, and as political as his mentor. In that meeting, Shinseki tried to give Big Dog the Don Corleone treatment. Let me run things my way, said Shinseki, and I'll make you look really good on the Hill. But forget about transformation. The Army doesn't need it, and we don't plan to do it. Rumsfeld, to the surprise of his interlocutors, declined the offer they thought he couldn't refuse.

Shinseki should have been fired. That he wasn't is a tribute to the White House's fear that Sen. Inouye ? ranking Democrat on the Appropriations Committee ? would take his revenge, with ballistic-missile defense the most likely target. Shinseki stayed and the Army stood fast against change, insisting that its 1950s Cold War culture and configuration should remain. In essence, Shinseki chose irrelevance, taking the Army off the table as a tool of national policy and defense.

Shinseki's choice of irrelevance was demonstrated convincingly in the Afghan campaign. When Big Dog asked what the Army would need to defeat the Taliban, Shinseki wanted at least six months to assemble and move what amounted to the entire Army. When the Afghan campaign began on October 5, 2001 ? less than a month after 9/11 ? the Army (except for the Rangers and other Army special ops, who performed superbly) watched from home. Privately, Shinseki called the Afghan campaign a "police action," something the Army shouldn't be involved in.

Shinseki's retirement two months ago coincides nicely with the planned ? but yet unannounced ? retirement of Inouye at the end of his current term in 2004. Shinseki will run for that seat, and most likely will win. He'll have Inouye's support and will claim credit for placing a $1 billion brigade of his pet "Stryker" armored vehicles in Hawaii, where they will be an expensive political ornament.

Shinseki's departure doesn't end the problem. His legacy is an Army of rigidity, commanded by his faithful. In four years as chief of staff, Shinseki personally chose about 40 colonels for promotion to general each year, as well as a proportional number of generals for promotion to two-, three-, and four-star ranks. These hundreds of generals were promoted based on their fealty to Shinseki's view of what the Army should be, and how it should fight. In Shinseki's view, the Army was only meant to fight wars such as World War II in which massed armies met, or to engage in the feckless U.N. peacekeeping missions. Only those who agreed with that view were given stars under Shinseki. It is that view ? and those who insist on it ? that the Army most urgently needs to shed.

To replace Shinseki, Rumsfeld needed someone who wasn't mired in the Cold War. After Gen. Tommy Franks (and, reportedly, at least two others) turned him down, Rumsfeld took the very unusual step of bringing a general back from retirement to do the job. Peter Schoomaker is a former Delta Force operator, later commander of Delta Force, and also of Special Operations Command. Soon after he was named, Schoomaker ? through the acting chief of staff, Gen. John Keane ? began the job of ridding the Army of obstacles to change.

So far, at least six of Shinseki's cadre have been given their walking papers. Among them are some of the worst obstacles to progress, and greatest devotees of political correctness. At the top of the political correctness pyramid was Lt. Gen. Dennis Cavin, commander of the Army Accessions Command. ("Accessions" is Pentagonese for recruitment.) Cavin, sources say, was solely focused on recruiting minorities and women. Any other subject was simply not worth his attention.

"Jointness" is one aspect of transformation that has been displayed in both Afghanistan and Iraq. "Jointness" means combining elements of one or more services to train and fight together, usually for a particular mission. It cherry-picks parts of the services and knits it together with the result being much more than the mere sum of the parts. In cases such as missile defense, it translates into huge cost savings. Gen. Joseph Cosumano, Shinseki's commander of the Army's Space and Missile Defense Command, threatened the success of the joint ballistic-missile-defense plan by insisting that the Army's role had to be separate. Cosumano is another who should have been fired, but wasn't. Now he is. And so are Lt. Gen. John Caldwell, Gen. Paul Kern, and Lt. Gen. Charles Mahan. Each of the three had charge of some part of the Army's weapon-system acquisition mess.

Instead of following Rumsfeld's orders, Shinseki slow-rolled transformation. He rolled it aside entirely on the wheels of his central "transformation" initiative, the "Stryker" interim armored vehicle. Stryker ? a 38,000-pound machine incapable of fighting a war for too many reasons to list here ? is a $12 billion tribute to the U.N. peacekeeping missions of the 1990s. Caldwell fought for the Stryker, in denial of its failure to meet mission specifications and repeated cost overruns. Kern, one of the architects of Stryker, was kept on by Shinseki for a year after the law required his retirement. Mahan was Shinseki's deputy chief of staff for logistics and part of this same inner circle. Stryker's future is uncertain. It should be cancelled.

Lt. Gen. Johnny Riggs was Shinseki's director of the Army Objective Task Force, supposedly the office in charge of transforming the Army according to Rumsfeld's plan, but actually the office in charge of obstructing it. When Rumsfeld asked for an Army timetable for transformation, Shinseki and Riggs came up with a plan that would have taken 30 years to perform. By the year 2032, that plan ? based on buying all sorts of things including Stryker ? would have provided the "future force." When Rumsfeld rejected that, Riggs and Shinseki backed off by twenty years, but still effectively precluded transformation.

With those men going, the question quickly becomes, why only them? The last time a new leader had to force a cultural change on the Army was in 1939, and the parallels to this time are very direct. Like Rumsfeld bringing Schoomaker out of retirement, FDR catapulted Gen. George C. Marshall from one star to four overnight. Between June 1939 and June 1940, Marshall fired 54 generals and 445 colonels in an Army numbering only about 225,000. Today's Army numbers about 480,000. Schoomaker's success as chief of staff will not be measured by how many of Shinseki's political princelings he fired. To force the cultural change the Army needs, many more heads will have to roll. But whose?

The criteria can't be too difficult to divine. First any general like Shinseki, whose political ambitions interfere with his willingness to carry out civilian orders, must go. That's not implementation of a competing political agenda. That's what the Constitution requires. Second, those who adhere to Shinseki's view that the Army has a role only in massive wars or in peacekeeping missions, and nothing in between must go. The Big Green Machine must be changed from its Cold War garrison culture to a force that thinks, adapts and moves quickly, and gets to the battlefield before the enemy escapes.

Third, those generals who ? like Cosumano ? oppose "jointness" cannot command effectively in the war we are now engaged. Our Army has to train and operate ? which means sharing resources, not fiefdom building ? with the Air Force, Marines, Navy, and Coast Guard as never before. Those not on the jointness train have to be left at the station. Fourth, there are a lot of bureaucrats who are generals. As one of my friends, who is a real warrior-intellectual often reminds me, no one is beatified by having a star pinned on each shoulder. There are, I am sure, future Grants, Pershings, Pattons, and Bradleys out there. Let's hope Gen. Schoomaker finds them, and promotes them before Senator Shinseki starts blocking the promotions of those he doesn't favor.

? NRO Contributor Jed Babbin was a deputy undersecretary of defense in the first Bush administration, and is now an MSNBC military analyst. He is the author of the novel Legacy of Valor.

nationalreview.com



To: unclewest who wrote (4662)8/16/2003 4:14:17 PM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793800
 
INTELDUMP

Update to Pentagon plans to reduce combat pay
Top DoD official says the plans were misconstrued, and pay will not drop

Undersecretary of Defense David Chu gave a press conference yesterday explaining this reversal a little further. In Dr. Chu's words, this isn't actually a reversal at all -- the original story was wrong. The Pentagon never intended to cut "total compensation" for soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan. Instead, it intended to shift around different kinds of pay to more selectively target those actually in a combat zone -- as opposed to those in support of a combat operation in Qatar.
philcarter.blogspot.com



To: unclewest who wrote (4662)8/18/2003 3:26:46 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793800
 
It's tough for the politicians to get at Rumsfeld. He is in his last job, and want's to do it his way.

Pentagon Reform Is His Battle Cry
Donald H. Rumsfeld, with new political clout won in Iraq and Afghanistan, intensifies his war on the military establishment.
By Doyle McManus
Times Staff Writer

August 17, 2003

WASHINGTON - Donald H. Rumsfeld has won two wars and won them his way, overruling military traditionalists. But to the secretary of Defense, Afghanistan and Iraq were merely two battles in a larger crusade.

Even as he directs military operations around the world, Rumsfeld has seized a leading role in the national security debate in Washington, giving the Pentagon new clout in administration debates on foreign policy and intelligence.

He has set out to "transform" the military establishment. He wants everything to move more quickly, whether it's getting Marines to trouble spots or designing and delivering new weapons systems.

Pentagon officials would write fewer reports to Congress, get raises based on performance rather than seniority, and buy weapons and supplies at the best value for the dollar. And overseas troops would shift from Cold War garrisons in Europe to terrorism hot spots like East Asia and the Middle East.

All that at the age of 71, on the final lap of a long political career.

If Rumsfeld succeeds on all those fronts, he may enter the history books as one of the most powerful secretaries of Defense since the office was created ? as powerful as Robert S. McNamara, who remade the Pentagon in the 1960s.

But the prickly Defense secretary can only hope the analogy ends there. McNamara was undone by the war in Vietnam. Will Rumsfeld be undone by the "peace" in Iraq?

For Rumsfeld, peace ? or the half-peace that has followed the end of major combat on May 1 ? is proving at least as difficult as war. Another 129 soldiers have been killed since then. The 148,000-strong U.S. force in Iraq is tied down battling guerrillas loyal to the deposed regime of Saddam Hussein, delaying the homecoming of thousands of troops and straining the armed forces.

Enlisting other countries to help has been more difficult than some Pentagon officials anticipated; fewer than 6,000 troops from nations besides the United States and Britain have arrived so far.

And despite his clout in Washington, Congress has pared back some of Rumsfeld's bureaucratic reforms ? to the point that he may ask President Bush to veto this year's defense bill.

Rumsfeld says he believes that he is making progress on all fronts; Iraq, he vows, will not be another Vietnam.

"I don't do quagmires," he told reporters last month.

Rumsfeld's record suggests that it might be foolish to doubt him. Admirers and critics alike, many of whom would only speak anonymously about him for this article, credit the Defense secretary with unusual prowess as a war leader and bureaucratic gladiator.

"There's no question he's one of the strongest and most powerful secretaries of Defense we've had," said Robert S. Strauss, the longtime Democratic Party patriarch. "Whether you like him or dislike him, you have to recognize that he's smart as hell, and he understands bureaucracy and bureaucratic infighting better than almost anyone in town."

Rumsfeld is pugnacious, demanding, brusque and, to his rivals, infuriating. That, admirers say, is what makes him effective.

Former Secretary of State Henry A. Kissinger collided with Rumsfeld almost 30 years ago, when Rumsfeld was on his first tour as Defense secretary under President Ford. Kissinger described the young Rumsfeld in his memoirs as "a special Washington phenomenon: the skilled full-time politician-bureaucrat in whom ambition, ability and substance fuse seamlessly."

To quote "Rumsfeld's Rules," a collection of aphorisms the Defense secretary has compiled over half a century: "Don't necessarily avoid sharp edges. Occasionally they are necessary to leadership."

Or, more succinctly: "If you try to please everybody, somebody's not going to like it."

"Rumsfeld has a black belt in both proactivity and reactivity," said a former senior official. "[Secretary of State Colin L.] Powell is spending most of his time being reactive The result is that Rumsfeld often dominates. On a lot of issues, he's this administration's thought leader."

State Department officials complain that Rumsfeld sometimes plays unfair by sending underlings to negotiate on policy decisions, only to withdraw his assent later ? leaving the decision-making process in chaos.

An official in a third agency said there is some truth in that but added another factor. The Department of Defense is "chaotic, but at least it has a policy," he said. "State is orderly, but it has no policy."

Rumsfeld also keeps rivals and underlings off balance with a constant blizzard of dictated memos ? known as "snowflakes" inside the Pentagon and "Rummygrams" elsewhere ? asking questions and proposing new policies.

"What are you doing about this? How long is it going to take?" a senior Pentagon official said, describing the memos. "It's a management technique to keep people on their toes We joke about how we'd like to steal his Dictaphone."

At the State Department, though, Powell and his aides consider the Rummygrams ? and their peremptory tone ? a disruptive nuisance. "We don't even answer some of them," one official said.

On key issues of defense policy, Rumsfeld is even more relentless, aides say.

The U.S. war plan in Iraq, for example, came together through what one aide called "literally countless conversations" between Rumsfeld and Gen. Tommy Franks, the U.S. military commander in the Middle East.

By contrast, retired Gen. Wesley Clark, who commanded U.S. forces in Kosovo in 1999, wrote that he had almost no direct contact with then-Defense Secretary William S. Cohen in the run-up to that conflict.

Rumsfeld insisted that the lean, swift plan that conquered Iraq was "Tommy Franks' plan," but to many generals it looked like the secretary's plan.

A top Pentagon aide described a typical decision: "Rumsfeld got on the VTC [video teleconference] with Franks [and] said to Franks, 'What do you want to do?' And Franks ran through the whole rationale, and there was lots of give and take."

Aides say Rumsfeld's decision-making process is "iterative," a management term meaning the secretary intervenes on important issues again and again ? and again. "When Rumsfeld says he iterates with people, he iterates with people," an aide semi-explained.

During the war, when the U.S. advance on Baghdad momentarily faltered, traditionalists in the Army's retired officer corps struck back, charging that Rumsfeld had fatally under-planned. When it turned out they were largely wrong and Rumsfeld largely right ? just as he had been right under similar circumstances in Afghanistan ? the argument, to many, was settled.

"The importance of having won two wars, and won them quickly, should not be underestimated," said Michael O'Hanlon, a military scholar at the Brookings Institution think tank who is often critical of Rumsfeld. "Success in war is, in a sense, the first test of any secretary of Defense."

Victory in Afghanistan and Iraq made officers more willing to accept Rumsfeld's ideas for pushing rapid change through the military establishment, and made Congress more willing to accede to Rumsfeld's demands for funding and legislative changes.

Rumsfeld has spoken candidly of the war's usefulness as a catalyst for institutional change.

"The war is like a giant laboratory," he said in April, when U.S. forces were fighting their way to Baghdad, "an opportunity to take those lessons learned from that and plug them into this building ? this institution, the department ? in a way that makes it a much better institution."

Now, however, Iraq has turned into a laboratory for two missions that Rumsfeld had never willingly embraced: nation-building and counter-insurgency.

Rumsfeld and his aides waged a determined bureaucratic battle last year to win full control over the occupation of postwar Iraq. The State Department wanted a role too, officials said, but Powell recognized that the Pentagon ? with thousands of troops on the ground and assets beyond any his department could muster ? was, in the end, going to be the lead dog.

"There were hurt feelings," a senior official acknowledged. "That's the price of big organizations. And, obviously, it means Rumsfeld has a big responsibility."

But the occupation was immediately set back by unwelcome surprises. Pentagon officials did not expect Baghdad to descend into looting when Hussein fell, did not expect to find public services in a state of collapse, and did not expect to face a determined guerrilla resistance waged by remnants of the Baathist regime. And one price of Rumsfeld's lean-force, high-speed invasion plan turned out to be an occupying force unprepared for the violence and looting that followed.

Rumsfeld has responded by putting his head down, declaring that "progress is being made" and promising that staying the course will bring results.

"The coalition effort is succeeding, and the Baathists will not be returning to Baghdad, except to answer for their crimes," he said July 24.

He has bristled at criticism. He spent the better part of two weeks insisting that the well-armed, apparently organized military attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq should not be referred to as "guerrilla war," even though his own newly appointed commander in the area, Gen. John Abizaid, agreed that the term applied.

A reporter recited the Pentagon's own definition ? "military and paramilitary operations conducted in enemy-held or hostile territory by irregular, predominantly indigenous forces" ? and observed: "This seems to fit a lot of what's going on in Iraq."

"It really doesn't," Rumsfeld replied.

Behind the bluster, though, Rumsfeld has allowed Abizaid and the top U.S. civilian in Iraq, L. Paul Bremer III, considerable leeway to change course. Bremer has reorganized the staff that Pentagon officials initially sent to Baghdad and pushed the quick formation of a 25-member Iraqi Governing Council. Abizaid is replacing the armored units used in the invasion with new counter-insurgency formations.

And Rumsfeld has even said he would welcome troops from France and Germany, which opposed the war, to assist American forces in Iraq.

Behind the scenes he has been less diplomatic. Because of his continuing ire at Paris, the U.S. military and even U.S. aerospace firms largely stayed away from the annual Paris Air Show and froze other exchanges with the French.

In a speech in Germany in June, Rumsfeld pointedly praised Romania and Albania for sending troops to Afghanistan ? but somehow forgot to mention his German hosts' much-larger contingent in Kabul.

To State Department officials who are trying to repair traditional U.S.-European alliances, Rumsfeld seems bent on making things worse.

"To a lot of Europeans, Rumsfeld is the face of America ? and it's a pretty scratchy face," one senior U.S. diplomat said.

Like all secretaries of Defense, Rumsfeld has sometimes disagreed with his opposite number at the State Department. But in the Bush administration, the rivalry is not only bureaucratic, it's also ideological. Rumsfeld and Powell are on opposite sides of a foreign-policy fault line: How far should the United States bend to accommodate its traditional European allies, and how ready should the United States be to act alone if the allies disagree?

More often than not, Rumsfeld has been in the "go-it-alone" camp. And more often than not, he has a key ally in Vice President Dick Cheney, with whom he has worked since 1969 (when a young Rumsfeld hired an even-younger Cheney into the administration of Richard Nixon).

"Part of Rumsfeld's power is due to the fact that his view of the world is more in keeping with the administration's view of the world than Colin Powell's ? and by the administration, I don't mean just the president; I mean the vice president and other people in the White House," said Kenneth Adelman, a former official in the Reagan administration who is a friend of Rumsfeld and Cheney.

But Rumsfeld probably doesn't qualify as a neoconservative of the crusading stamp of Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz. Where Wolfowitz has described the U.S. mission in Iraq as part of a drive to implant democracy across the Arab world, for example, Rumsfeld has cast it in a more traditional (and potentially less expansive) mold of eliminating threats to U.S. security.

As a byproduct of the war on terrorism, Rumsfeld has already won his main foreign policy priority: restoring U.S. readiness to use military force.

Before he took the job as secretary of Defense, Rumsfeld told friends that he worried the United States under Bill Clinton had become "risk averse." One thing he wanted the newly elected Bush to do, he reportedly said, was "to correct the widespread view that the United States would fold after taking casualties."

That perception is gone, a senior aide to Rumsfeld said.

"Can you imagine what our enemies think of us right now?" asked the aide, Undersecretary Douglas Feith. "The deterrent value of what we've accomplished far overshadows the direct results."

But the most difficult part of Rumsfeld's agenda may not be winning the peace in Iraq, or even winning the war against terrorism, which he has warned will long outlast his tenure. It's his crusade to transform the armed forces and the Pentagon's civilian bureaucracy into leaner and more flexible organizations.

"His interest is, No. 1, changing the way people think about defense strategy and policy," Feith said. "That is what he mainly cares about."

To be sure, Rumsfeld is only the latest in a long line of Defense secretaries who have promised to change the Pentagon; would-be military reformers have been proposing to transform the armed services for decades. And with support for defense spending high, Rumsfeld has done little to pare spending on military equipment; his proposals for procurement reform won't be unveiled until the fall.

"I would actually put transformation last among his achievements," said O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution. "I know he would put it toward the top but I'm skeptical that he has accomplished much in that domain."

So far, some of Rumsfeld's bureaucratic changes have had the effect of shifting decision-making power from the four armed services to the civilians around the secretary of Defense ? a trend unpopular among traditionalists, especially in the Army.

The secretary has decreed that all promotions to three-star and four-star rank must go through his office, which is being perceived as a blunt message that only officers who fully agree with his vision will reach the top. He has criticized the Army as wedded to old defense concepts focusing on large, heavy forces; he undercut his first Army chief of staff, Gen. Eric Shinseki, by naming a replacement 14 months ahead of schedule.

In the search for a new Army chief, two generals turned Rumsfeld down, and he bypassed several others to reactivate a retiree, Gen. Peter J. Schoomaker, who made his career in special operations ? the light, swift soldiering that Rumsfeld likes most.

In a final signal, he fired his first secretary of the Army, Thomas White, a retired Army general, and replaced him with Air Force Secretary James Roche ? making the Army's top leadership all Rumsfeld picks.

The relentless drive for change has left many officers feeling bruised.

"He has the military terrified," said a retired officer who has worked as a consultant in Rumsfeld's office.

Asked whether he likes Rumsfeld, a senior Army officer paused and said, finally: " 'Like' is such a strong word."

"If you have a thin skin, don't work here," said Roche, who then cited, from memory, one of Rumsfeld's Rules: "You have to be prepared to say goodbye every day."

Rumsfeld, in a speech to business executives in June, acknowledged that the job of transformation is largely undone. "Big institutions are enormously difficult to change," he said. "Things at rest tend to remain at rest."

But he said his changes at the top are having some effect. "It's like dropping a pebble in a pond and watching the ripples go out," he said.

Congress has been a tough target as well.

In this year's Defense Authorization Bill, Rumsfeld sought a long list of changes to give him more flexibility in running the department, including new hiring and firing rules, a system for giving raises based on performance more than seniority, the right to suspend employees' collective bargaining rights, and easing the "buy American" rule that requires most defense equipment to be U.S.-made.

The House bill gave Rumsfeld most of what he wanted on the personnel front; Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-El Cajon), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said the secretary had earned the right to remake the bureaucracy through his victory in Iraq. But instead of easing the "buy American" rule, Hunter proposed toughening it. Rumsfeld replied with a warning that he will ask Bush to veto the entire bill if that provision stays.

But a Senate bill written by Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) scaled back Rumsfeld's proposals significantly, denying him the right to waive collective bargaining and preserving more elements of the current civil service system. The two houses will try to reconcile the bills in a conference this fall.

And for three years in a row, Rumsfeld has sought to pare down the number of reports that Pentagon officials are required to write to Congress. Every year, Congress has largely ignored his requests.

Rumsfeld has not said how long he wants to remain as secretary of Defense, or whether he would stay another four years if a reelected Bush were to ask.

His main objectives ? stabilizing Iraq, pressing institutional reforms ? will take longer to achieve than the year and a half remaining in this term.

Illinois Republican leaders sounded out Rumsfeld on running for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated this year by Republican Peter Fitzgerald, but he wasn't interested.

On domestic issues, friends say, Rumsfeld is a closet moderate, reflecting his roots as a traditional Republican from Chicago's affluent North Shore.

As a member of the House of Representatives, he voted for the landmark Civil Rights Bill of 1964. He drew protests from social conservatives in 2001 when he hired a prominent gay Republican as a consultant on personnel issues.

His Chicago friends include Democrats like William Daley, who was secretary of Commerce under President Clinton, and Newton N. Minow, a former aide to President Kennedy. "He believes in civil liberties and civil rights," Minow said. "He gets on with people who don't agree with him."

Rumsfeld rebuffed a request for an interview for this article. An aide said the secretary was willing to talk about Iraq but not an assessment of his overall record. One aide, noting that Rumsfeld's tenure could run out in only 19 months at the end of the presidential term, said the secretary wanted to avoid putting himself in a "straitjacket" by being explicit about his remaining goals.

Aides and friends scoff at the notion that Rumsfeld is thinking about his legacy or worried about the history books. But they acknowledge that they ? and he ? know that this is his final lap.

"This is his last job, and that's an important factor," Adelman said. "He is no longer on the make. That helps My feeling is there is nothing else in life he'd rather be doing."
latimes.com