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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (352)	8/10/2003 10:05:57 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 110194

Jim, Bob Bronson is right ECRI is using an outdated model for predicting the business cycle with their WLI indicator. Aside from ignoring the refinancing component ECRI is also ignoring the growth in consumer / private sector debt and the cost of servicing that debt. Another quirk in the WLI is the fact the it count money supply as a positive factor but ignores the repercussion of the trade deficits and as a result the devaluation of the US which implies inflation and higher rates with about a 6 month lag