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Strategies & Market Trends : China Warehouse- More Than Crockery -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (266)	8/11/2003 1:15:22 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Respond to of 6370

thanks! big chunky mosaic starting to take shape.. something real <g>

To: TobagoJack who wrote (266)	8/11/2003 2:47:19 AM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6370

Hi Jay, Is growth in China's energy consumption sustainable? In a word, no... But the key to such a blunt answer lies in how one defines sustainable and growth... Given the currently available and known resources (including the known reserves of strategic commodities), there simply isn't enough of anything currently available for China's sharply escalating growth presuming that the developed world doesn't sharply curtail their own growth in the usage of these same commodities, which include oil, gas, precious metals, non-precious metals, some relatively scarce minerals and many food items. I had read some time ago (regarding oil and gas for energy purposes) that were the USA and Europe to suddenly reverse their growth trends in total energy usage (down to levels near 67% of current usage), and cede 100% of the difference to China, it still would not be enough to satisfy the domestic needs of all of China. Of course, this perspective doesn't allow anything additional in the way of energy needs for a growing India, or the future needs of Africa. Clearly, new sources of energy will be needed for China's development. In addition to the well known planned hydroelectric projects within China, there will likely be a renewed emphasis on nuclear power, and attempts to develop solar energy sources, geothermal energy sources and wind energy sources, though these latter plans may be decades away yet from fruition. China's reliance on coal (as a source of energy) is all but guaranteed for the foreseeable future. Just a guess on my part, but I expect that there will be tremendous pressure (in the not so distant future) placed on developed nations to recycle disposed items, in particular those items that contain needed materials, such as aluminum, steel, iron, copper, precious metals, paper, wood, and other items. The recycling efforts will likely exceed those minimum (and feeble) efforts we have seen so far in recycling. Recycling has been an expensive proposition thus far, but with the increased competition (from China, India, Africa) for the raw materials, raw prices will eventually rise to the point where recycling becomes cost competitive with raw materials production. And there will also be an emphasis on the conservation of resources, as these resources become more expensive due to competition factors. I won't go into the problems with the food items, but suffice to say food will have similar pricing pressures to other commodities. KJC