August 12, 2003
1:02am EDT
JOHN FUND'S POLITICAL DIARY
URL:http://www.opinionjournal.com/diary/?id=110003874
No Cakewalk
Schwarzenegger faces obstacles en route to Sacramento.
Tuesday, August 12, 2003 12:01 a.m. EDT
Arnold Schwarzenegger's political debut last week would have made any politician envious. He went from one event to another trailed by adoring fans and dozens of cameras without having to provide detailed answers on his views. What's more, a new Gallup poll shows that 42% of Californians say there is a good chance they'd vote for him, versus only 22% who said that about the lone big-name Democrat running to replace Gray Davis, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante. Meanwhile, Democratic surveys show the recall of Gov. Davis is almost inevitable with over a third of Democrats backing his ouster.
For Mr. Schwarzenegger, "the election seems his to lose," as Los Angeles Times columnist George Skelton pointed out on Monday. But many of the pundits now proclaiming the Mr. Schwarzenegger's ascendancy were convinced last week that the 56-year-old actor/businessman would never enter the race.
The truth is that Mr. Schwarzenegger doesn't have a cakewalk to Sacramento. He has been able to use the recall election rules to avoid negotiating a difficult Republican primary, but the nature of the recall ballot presents its own difficulties that may prove as challenging as any primary would have been. Democrats are worthy opponents. There are plenty of major obstacles for the Terminator, here are some of them:
• California is still a Democratic state. The turnout in the recall election is likely to be skewed to those most passionate about it--opponents of Gov. Davis and supporters of Mr. Schwarzenegger. But Democrats will mount a massive voter registration effort among Hispanics, touting the fact that Mr. Bustamante would become the state's first Hispanic governor since 1875. Other minority voters will be urged to turn out to oppose Ward Connerly's Racial Privacy Initiative, which would ban the state from collecting data on racial characteristics.
No matter what the final makeup of the turnout on Oct. 7, the fact remains that 45% of California's electorate is registered as Democrats. Only 35% are registered as Republicans. No modern election in California has featured more Republicans than Democrats turning up at the polls.
• Republicans are more divided than Democrats. Apart from the governor himself, Mr. Bustamante is the only serious Democrat in the race. There are four major Republicans--Mr. Schwarzenegger, 2002 nominee Bill Simon, state Sen. Tom McClintock and 1984 Olympics chairman Peter Ueberroth. There are two leftish alternative candidates--columnist Arianna Huffington and Green Party nominee Peter Camejo--but each of them shows up at 4% or less in the first surveys. Simple arithmetic would argue that no matter how well Mr. Schwarzenegger does in getting the votes of Democrats and independents, he'll face a tough challenge if the Republican vote splinters. If Mr. Schwarzenegger continues to be the front-runner, look for increased pressure on the other GOP candidates to drop out of the race.
• Democrats are very good at last-minute changes in strategy. Should Mr. Bustamante, an uninspiring pol who has often stumbled in his public appearances, not catch on with voters, Democrats may ask Bill Clinton or other prominent party members to pressure Gov. Davis to resign. Not only would that lower the turnout among voters who are most fervent about removing Mr. Davis, but Mr. Bustamante's elevation to "acting governor" would probably turn into a major media event, showcasing California's new Hispanic governor. That would "certainly boost his visibility and stature," says Assemblyman John Campbell, a Republican.
Those close to Gov. Davis deny that he would give in to such pressure. "He is a stubborn man and believes he must defeat an illegitimate attempt to reverse last year's election result," says Democratic State Chairman Art Torres. But people said the same thing about New Jersey's Sen. Bob Torricelli, an ethically troubled and equally driven politician who last year stubbornly persisted to run for re-election despite party pressure to step down and polls showing he'd go down to defeat. Then a series of Democrats phoned him with what must have been a powerful message. Mr. Torricelli dropped out, after the deadline for getting a name on the ballot. But thanks to a friendly state supreme court, Democrats were able to replace his name with that of a retired senator, Frank Lautenberg, who went on to save the seat for his party.
Much the same kind of pressure was brought to bear on California's Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi after he announced his plans to run to replace Gov. Davis. Democrats feared he'd split the liberal vote with Mr. Bustamante. Mr. Garamendi initially ignored calls by fellow Democrats to get out of the race, but he finally yielded late Saturday. What brought him into line was conversations with House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and meetings with officials from the California Labor Federation, the state AFL-CIO. Within the space of a couple of hours Mr. Garamendi changed his mind and dropped out citing the "circus-like" nature of the recall process.
"If they can persuade someone like Garamendi to drop out, there is a good chance they could talk Davis into avoiding the humiliation of an overwhelming repudiation at the polls," says a former Democratic state legislator.
• Mass confusion, chaos and even fraud could accompany the recall election. With a ballot that could ultimately include over 150 candidates, the potential exists for litigation challenging the results or delaying the election. The ACLU has already filed a federal suit claiming that the use of error-prone punch-card ballots in some counties will disfranchise minority voters. It doesn't hurt the ACLU's chances that California is under the jurisdiction of the notoriously liberal Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.
Other groups may challenge the election because counties are consolidating precincts to cut down on costs. In a dissent filed in California's Supreme Court challenging the recall last week, Chief Justice Ron George, a Republican appointee, also raised the possibility of delaying or throwing out the recall election because the cluttered list of over 100 candidates on the ballot could skew the result. "If we were to conclude after the recall election that the signature requirements for placement of candidates on the ballot . . . was inappropriate, we would have to nullify the election and cast our state into far more chaos and confusion than exists presently. Careful consideration and resolution of these issues prior to the election is well warranted despite the ensuing delay in the electoral process. By following this course of action, we would enhance rather than thwart the will of the people in exercising their right to vote at a properly conducted recall election."
Complicating matters further, election officials say the counting of such a lengthy ballot may take close to 40 hours. If machines break down, if election officials mishandle provisional ballots from people who don't appear on voter registration rolls, or if voters declare themselves confused by the lengthy ballot, then look for litigation that could delay certification of the results for weeks.
As for fraud, those who view the entire recall process as a right-wing coup or illegitimate may not be above encouraging noncitizens and other unqualified voters to go to the polls. Roman Buhler, a former counsel to a House committee that has investigated contested elections, points out that a congressional probe into a 1996 congressional race in Orange County found evidence that hundreds of improper votes had been cast, although the evidence was not clear enough to overturn the election.
Just last year, evidence surfaced that more than 1,300 irregular votes might have been cast in an assembly election in Bakersfield, Calif., that Democrat Nicole Parra won by 266 votes. An investigation by losing GOP candidate Dean Gardner turned up written admissions by 76 people that were not citizens but had nonetheless voted. Another 49 admitted that they were not registered at their correct address. A total of 69 voters admitted that they had voted twice. The evidence of this and other irregularities was turned over earlier this year to Kern County District Attorney Ed Jagels.
Despite all these obstacles, Mr. Schwarzenegger still holds the high cards in the recall election's political deck. Aides to all the other GOP candidates admit that they are basically waiting for Mr. Schwarzenegger's campaign to implode--because of either a major misstep or an avalanche of negative stories about his personal life. The problem is that neither of those things are likely. Mr. Schwarzenegger will avoid debating anyone other than Gov. Davis, whom he considers his real opponent, and he'll largely stick to three issues that he has already mastered: improving the state's business climate, improving education and cleaning up the incestuous political culture of Sacramento. Mr. Schwarzenegger will hold forums with experts in each of those areas in the next few weeks.
As for his personal life, operatives for Gov. Davis distributed the results of their extensive dirt-digging in 2001, when Mr. Schwarzenegger was first touted as a candidate for governor. Several of Mr. Schwarzenegger's Hollywood friends cited as sources repudiated the allegations, thereby largely discrediting them. New revelations along the same lines are likely to be seen as part of the "puke" campaign tactics that Attorney General Bill Lockyer, a Democrat, warned Gov. Davis avoid. The attorney general said that a highly negative campaign by Mr. Davis would likely compel Democrats to vote Republican.
Even without a negative onslaught, it's likely that Mr. Schwarzenegger's poll numbers will soften in coming days as the initial euphoria and hype subsides. "He's got to show 'here's the beef' on how he would govern California or some will accuse him of being just a beefcake candidate," says Melanie Morgan of KSFO radio in San Francisco.
That beef may already be on the grill. Financier Warren Buffett, a close friend of Mr. Schwarzenegger's, is providing advice on economic development. Friends of Nobel Prize winning economist Milton Friedman are urging him to appear in a commercial for Mr. Schwarzenegger, much as he did for Proposition 13 a quarter century ago. Mr. Schwarzenegger has been quoted as saying that for years his favorite Christmas present for friends was Mr. Friedman's book "Free to Choose." Other prominent economic figures who are talking with Mr. Schwarzenegger about a role in the campaign include Steve Forbes, Larry Kudlow, Art Laffer and Steve Moore of the Club for Growth. This week, Bob White, the former chief of staff for Gov. Pete Wilson, took over the campaign's reins as senior manager. Mr. White has extensive experience in formulating public policy, which is unusual for a campaign manager.
Mr. Schwarzenegger is still the front-runner and is proving to be a natural campaigner. But in order to survive the relentless attacks that are about to be mounted against him he will need support from such figures to attract voters who are now merely intrigued by his candidacy. |
