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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1203)	8/11/2003 3:09:32 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1210

>>is bound to be left out in confusion<< I resemble that remark -- I thought we were due for a selloff -- got lots of Sept puts withering on the vine as I type <g>

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (1203)	9/1/2003 7:28:45 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1210

from ContraryInvestor -- he's right one datapoint does not a trend make, but ...might be the start of what I said I was expecting about 1 year ago. >>Another anecdote that clearly took us by surprise a few weeks back was the balance of trade report. And the surprise was not the fact that the deficit contracted noticeably, but rather the makeup of the components that drove the contraction. Exports actually grew while total imports remained basically flat. Finally the triumph of a weaker dollar? Only partly. Exports of capital goods, consumer goods and industrial supplies all registered gains that collectively totaled $1.5 billion, but the highlight of the report in our minds was the $1.2 billion contraction in imports of consumer goods. Maybe it's just a one-off event, but on a $40 billion monthly trade deficit number, a contraction of $1.2 billion in imported consumer goods stands out like a sore thumb. Either Wal-Mart and friends decided to tighten up inventories in a vice grip, or this is a tell tale sign of a US consumer unable to hold up the continued acceleration in the importation of cheap foreign-sourced consumer goods. Again, these are just anecdotes of recent note for now relating to consumer activity. Far from in place or definitive trends at the moment. But if weakness in consumer credit growth, cash out refi's and the importing of consumer goods persists ahead, it will be telegraphing a message of a US consumer who is growing quite weary relative to behavior of the last few years. Behavior that has been the very support of the US economy. Maybe it's no wonder that a potential capital spending revival has become the rallying cry for the equity market as of late. <<