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Gold/Mining/Energy : Blue Chip Gold Stocks HM, NEM, ASA, ABX, PDG -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wade who wrote (818)	8/11/2003 11:22:15 PM
From: Wade	Respond to of 48092

After I took a closer look at the US Dollar index, I found the trend is still going down from here. I think this is the reason why POG has been hanging tough and ignored the small consolidation of dollar in the last several days. Bond yield rising should not be the show stopper for POG to rise if dollar continue to slide. The scrimmage line of dollar index is at about 97, which you can draw a horizontal line on the price chart from early 90's to date (I only have 11 years data). This line represents many resistances and supports during these years. This line also intercepts the down trend line of US dollar on Aug. 6 (last week). This is the most critical juncture of US dollar in the last 10 years in terms of technical analysis. Last week, dollar failed to break out this most critical historical point which signals very tough time ahead of the stock and bond markets. If dollar index 97 represents the true average value, I expect dollar index drop to ~80 in about 2-3 years. POG should continue to rise for a long time. Of course CRB index will hit all time high in the mean time. Commodities should be excellent investment targets besides PM. If you want to buy big houses at bargain basement prices, wait for a couple of years with the cash you made form gold stocks<G>. Just my two cents. Good luck guys. Wade