To: Gottfried who wrote (10945 ) 8/15/2003 12:40:10 AM From: StanX Long Respond to of 95738 Jobs, Trade Data Bolster Recovery Hopes Thu Aug 14, 7:34 PM ET Add Business - Reuters to My Yahoo! story.news.yahoo.com By Tim Ahmann WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Signs the erosion in the U.S. jobs market may have drawn to a close and a surprisingly sharp narrowing in America's trade gap offered fresh hope on Thursday the economic recovery was gaining steam. Initial claims for jobless benefits edged up slightly last week, but for a fourth straight week were below the 400,000 level many economists see as a dividing line between jobs growth and losses, the Labor Department (news - web sites) said. A separate report showed the U.S. trade gap at a smaller-than-expected $39.5 billion in June, down from $41.5 billion in May on the biggest surge in exports in three years. The government also said wholesale prices inched higher last month, helping keep deflation fears at bay without sparking inflation concerns. Analysts said the data added to a brightening outlook and the trade numbers implied the economy grew faster than the 2.4 percent annual rate the government reported last month. "Recent data show plenty of evidence that economic growth is picking up pretty sharply," said Charles Lieberman, chief economist at Advisors Financial Center in Suffern, N.Y. The show of strength has pushed bond yields up and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield hit a new one-year high before easing late in the day. Higher market interest rates have kept a lid on stocks. The blue chip Dow Jones industrial average closed up 38.8 points at 9310.56 while the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index gained 13.7 points to end at 1700.34. Economists said the stability in jobless claims was perhaps the most hopeful sign in Thursday's slew of data, even though they edged up 2,000 to 398,000 last week. The four-week moving average of claims, which offers a more reliable labor-market guide by smoothing weekly volatility, fell 4,250 to 394,250, the lowest level since mid-February. The four-week average has now dropped for five straight weeks. "The numbers finally provide reasonably solid evidence that labor demand is turning," said Jade Zelnik, chief economist at RBS Greenwich Capital. The economy has shed jobs for six straight months and has lost nearly 2.7 million jobs since sinking into recession in March 2001. Analysts said the claims data hinted at least a little employment growth in August. EXPORT SURGE In the trade report, the Commerce Department (news - web sites) said exports climbed 2.4 percent in June, their largest gain since June 2000. Imports were flat. Economists said the narrowing in the deficit reflected a weakening in the dollar's value over the past year and might suggest some firming in overseas economies. The dollar's weakness, however, is not a factor when it comes to China, which, much to the consternation of U.S. producers, pegs its currency to the greenback. Imports from China hit their highest level since November, keeping the U.S. shortfall in trade with Beijing -- which accounts for about one-quarter of the overall U.S. trade gap -- on track to break last year's record. Separately, the Labor Department's Producer Price Index (news - web sites), a measure of prices received by farms, factories and refineries, crept up 0.1 percent after a 0.5 percent climb in June. Excluding food and energy prices, which are often volatile, the so-called core PPI (news - web sites) rose 0.2 percent in July as the cost of cars, small trucks and pharmaceuticals marched higher. The Federal Reserve (news - web sites) is on alert for signs already low inflation may move even lower. Further disinflation would heighten remote chances of outright deflation, a persistent decline in consumer prices that could hobble the economy. At its latest policy-making meeting on Tuesday, the Fed held overnight borrowing costs steady at a 45-year low of 1 percent and said rates would likely remain low for some time in an effort to ward off a further slowing in inflation. The Fed had cut interest rates by a quarter-point at its previous meeting in June. Meeting minutes released on Thursday showed some officials were heartened by early signs the economy was set to pick up, although they were still concerned inflation could drift lower and sap some of the stimulus from the 13 rate cuts they had made since early 2001. Analysts said the mild rise in wholesale prices offered little reason to worry about inflation although it was not strong enough for the Fed to put away deflation concerns. On Friday, the government will issue the July consumer price index (news - web sites), which markets will eye for any signs a slowing inflation trend is turning.