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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quehubo who wrote (111066)	8/12/2003 7:14:27 AM
From: Noel de Leon	Respond to of 281500

From your earlier post: "while we invest billions to reduce our foreign oil demand oil becomes cheaper for our competitors." and from #111066 "Once this is widely recognized and production starts falling the prices will be much higher and the OPEC nations will have tremendous power over us. The gradual decline of production wil be quite alarming to the world and prices will be quite high." Disagree with the first, agree with the second. Hubbet's Peak for world oil production is predicted to occur between 2004 and 2008, Hubbert's peak for US oil production occurred in 1971. A bit of history: In 1971, the confirmation of Hubbert's Peak was made public in the San Francisco Chronicle, "The Texas Railroad Commission announced a 100 percent allowable for the next month" "The Texas Railroad Commission , many years earlier, had been assigned the task of matching oil production to demand. In essence, it was a government sanctioned cartel. Texas oil production so dominated the industry that regulating each Texas oil well to a percentage of its capacity was enough to maintain oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC) was modeled after the Texas Railroad Commission. Just substitute Saudi Arabia for Texas."(pp4-5, Hubbert's Peak) The quote is from Daniel Yergin(1991), The Prize, New York: Simon and Schuster, p. 522.