Bush campaign sees California, New York as ripe for taking by Joseph Curl
washtimes.com
The Bush-Cheney campaign plans to make a strong play to take California and New York in 2004, despite the states' recent history of supporting Democratic presidential candidates.
Both states are ripe for the taking, according to election strategists, even though California has preferred Democrats since President Bush's father won there in 1988 and New York has leaned liberal since Ronald Reagan took the state in 1984.
And with a war chest expected to top $200 million, President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney are expected to hammer the Democratic ticket on their home base, which could require Democrats to expend more time, effort and money just to hang on to states crucial to their effort to retake the White House.
"President Bush's compassionate agenda resonates with the people of both New York and California," said Tracey Schmitt, spokeswoman for the Bush-Cheney '04 campaign. "We expect to be competitive in both those states."
The two states are the top prizes in any national election. California holds 55 electoral votes, New York, 31. While the Republicans can hold on to the White House without winning either state — Mr. Bush captured neither when he won in 2000 — Democrats must take California and New York to remain competitive.
While the mission appears difficult at best, a few factors will aid Mr. Bush's re-election efforts. In California, he holds an approval rating hovering in the mid to high 60s, and Gov. Gray Davis, a Democrat, is facing a recall effort from voters incensed over a $38 billion budget shortfall.
New York has a Republican governor, a Republican mayor of New York City and a very popular former city mayor — Rudolph Giuliani — and will be the site of the Republican National Convention in late August and early September, just two months before the general election.
However, New York has two very popular Democratic senators — Charles E. Schumer and Hillary Rodham Clinton. Mr. Schumer has stuffed his coffers for his re-election campaign next year, but the state's Republican Party has yet to find a viable candidate to challenge him.
Despite Mr. Schumer and Mrs. Clinton's popularity, Democratic strategist Mary Ann Marsh said the state has become less liberal-leaning and warned that if the Democrats want to keep the state, they need to get moving.
"Right now, the Democrats have to sit there and look at George Bush and say, '... He raised $30 million in two weeks; the convention's in New York near the anniversary of September 11.' None of this comes as a coincidence." Miss Marsh also noted that California was once a Republican stronghold, twice voting for President Reagan, who is a former governor of the state.
The Bush-Cheney campaign is likely to be flush with cash and will have far more than its eventual Democratic opponent, who will have to spend millions just to capture the nomination. Should the Republican ticket decide to dump millions into either or both states, Democrats will have to play catch-up or risk losing the electoral votes crucial to winning the White House.
But whether Bush-Cheney plans to flood the states with campaign ads "is almost immaterial," Miss Marsh said. "Even thinking about putting the precious few resources that the Democrats have right now in states that you really should count on has its own negative affect on the Democrats.
"Divide and conquer politics has always been one of the things Republicans do best. And in any campaign, you always want to keep your opponent pinned down on their base so they can't maneuver. They're obviously practicing both of these strategies," she said.
Mr. Bush has a decidedly uphill battle in New York, where 2000 Democratic opponent Al Gore took a whopping 60 percent of the vote. In addition, a New York Times/CBS News Poll taken on and off over the last 2½ years shows about 40 percent of state residents believe Mr. Bush was not legitimately elected president.
Democrats find the idea of a Republican onslaught in their New York stronghold absurd.
"It's good for a laugh," said an amused Tony Welch, a spokesman for the Democratic National Committee. "It's good talk. ... They know California and New York are nowhere near their 'in-play' chart," he said.
Mr. Welch said any money spent by the RNC in an effort to re-elect the Bush-Cheney ticket will simply turn out Democratic voters. In addition, he isn't convinced the Republicans will really put their money where their mouth is.
"They floated the story long before they floated any money," he said with another laugh.
Still, Republicans hold strong majorities across the state in county legislatures — 50 out of 57, excluding the five that make up New York City, said Sandy Treadwell, chairman of the New York Republican State Committee.
"The president is going to carry our state next year," Mr. Treadwell said. "New York is totally in play."
Mr. Bush has strong support outside of New York City, which could put the state in play, he said. In the state's 900 towns, 700 have Republican legislatures, Mr. Treadwell said.
California presents a somewhat easier challenge. Mr. Bush won 42 percent of the 2000 vote, losing to Mr. Gore's 53 percent. With an unpopular Democratic governor about to undergo a recall election, the Bush-Cheney campaign can capitalize on anti-Democrat sentiment in the state.
And with the increasing interest in the race since Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, announced his candidacy for the state's top post last week, California Republicans are looking forward to pushing the state's policy pendulum back toward the right.
But Democrats hold a 1.4-million-voter registration advantage, and the state is still rebuilding after years of strife between conservatives and moderates. No matter how Mr. Davis fares in the recall election, Democrats won every statewide office and kept their legislative majorities in last fall's election.
State figures show that Democratic registration shrunk by about 250,000 voters since the 2000 election. And there are some in the state who say Mr. Bush's strong-on-defense persona puts him in the territory of Mr. Reagan.
"We're planning for victory," said Rob Stutzman, spokesman for the California Republican Party. "We haven't seen enthusiasm for a Republican president like this since Reagan." |
