Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (255199)	8/12/2003 11:31:18 AM
From: KM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Here's the followup and who is is, etc. underneath. The SentimentTrader guy. Buzz & Banter "...it's possible that this could occur within the context of a longer term bullish pattern." Absolutely. Particularly with the positioning of commercial traders, that can sometimes take a long time (like years) to work out. Just as one example, in 1993, commercials became quite net short (and small specs net long), gold declined for about a month, then shot higher by about $40/oz. over the course of two months. At that time, we saw commercials become even MORE net short before the move ultimately ended. The trouble usually comes when we see quick spikes in positions, which we recently have for the commercials as they've been shorting the move higher off the mid-July lows in gold. Small specs have been buying (of course), though it's not quite yet at an extreme. I think there is still some more room here for extreme to become even more extreme, but I imagine a move to $370ish would be accompanied by a very negative setup in these futures positions. As far as the Rydex and put/call indicators, they are much shorter-term, most effective out several weeks at most. Again, there's probably some more room here for them to become even more extreme, but they're already pretty tilted. When these indicators reach extremes, we usually see the underlying move immediately if it is going to move. So, if these signals prove good this time around, then I would expect gold to work lower beginning soon (like within the next week). Jason Goepfert No positions in stocks mentioned. Jason Goepfert welcomes your comments and feedback at Jason@minyanville.com. Jason Goepfert is president and CEO of Sundial Capital Research, Inc. (the "firm"), which publishes sentimentrader.com. Prior to founding the firm, Mr. Goepfert managed the operations of a large discount brokerage, then the operations of a $1 billion hedge fund. Mr. Goepfert may trade securities that are discussed on the site, both before and after the articles are published and/or may have a position in such securities for either personal or firm account(s). Mr. Goepfert will indicate whether he or the firm has a position in stocks or other securities in any of the companies he discusses in an article. He will not disclose his or the firm's ownership of any securities issued by companies that are not discussed in an article. The disclosures will be accurate as of the time of publication of an article and may change at any time thereafter without notice to the reader.