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Pastimes : Home on the range where the buffalo roam -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sig who wrote (11111)	8/12/2003 7:51:14 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Respond to of 13815

awesome grub for you!

To: Sig who wrote (11111)	8/13/2003 11:12:54 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 13815

Robert Marcin: A Value Investor Takes a Look at Tech 08/12/2003 07:11 AM EDT thestreet.com As most readers know, I pursue a deep value investment philosophy and process. Like most value investors, I prefer stocks that have declined significantly to low valuations. But unlike many of my competitors, I'm very comfortable owning technology stocks as well as shorting them. Right now, I am net short technology. Here's why. First, most technology shares have already experienced major moves from last fall's bottom. While the cap-weighted Nasdaq is up north of 50% in the past nine months, many tech stocks have doubled or tripled in the same time frame. I rarely purchase stocks right after existing owners have made a killing. I leave that for momentum investors and chartists. Second, most technology shares have become expensive -- even exorbitant. According to Steve Leuthold, of the firm that bears his name, the median price-to-earnings ratio of the largest 20 tech stocks is 44. Now, I know the tech bulls will claim foul. I'm using depressed profits, they'd argue. But when Leuthold "normalizes" earnings for the same group of companies, he calculates a P/E of 38. Some bargain! Perhaps a better way to value tech stocks is through their price-to-sales ratios. Sales are much more stable than earnings, which have a way of disappearing in down cycles. Leuthold calculates a median P/S ratio of 5.3 -- more than double this group's 10-year historical median valuation of 2.56. These P/S ratios are closer to sector peaks (excluding the bubble), and they discount significant improvements in sales and profits for most tech shares. Again, not a great deal for your money. Where's the Boom? With valuations quite high, you might assume the sector is banging out tremendous gains in revenue and earnings. Wrong. Organic sales growth for many large technology companies is in the low- to mid-single digits. Check out the revenue numbers for bellwethers such as IBM (IBM:NYSE) , Oracle (ORCL:Nasdaq) , Applied Materials (AMAT:Nasdaq) , Motorola (MOT:NYSE) , KLA-Tencor (KLAC:Nasdaq) , Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ:NYSE). These businesses cannot generate double-digit sales gains even with huge currency benefits. Yeah, I know they all beat revised earnings estimates by a penny or two. Big deal. At some point, investors will figure out this game. My final reason has to do with the owners of technology stocks, the OPMers, as I call them. (That stands for Other People's Money.) These are institutional and mutual fund investors who heave around the big dough -- hundreds of billions of dollars. These investors chase benchmarks and have bought tech simply because it has rallied. They're not the New Era Bubbleheads, true believers who presumed that tech stocks would grow 25% forever. At least those investors had exceptional growth rates to plug into their discount models to justify gaudy tech-stock valuations. Today's technology investors need to acknowledge the existence of a more difficult world. For all except the chosen few, technology is a highly competitive, very cyclical, overcapitalized business with declining secular revenue growth rates. In total, the global information technology industry is probably not even a 10% grower. There, I said it: single-digit growers. The sell-side analysts, always the last to get it, will spend the next few years slashing secular growth rates from the nonsensical 15% to 20% rates of the past to more sustainable levels in the high-single-digits. Stocks rarely act well as this occurs. Heads in the Sand Still, investors are choosing to ignore this new reality. They comfort themselves with the hope that a new technology upcycle is imminent. They justify high valuations with dreams of a huge replacement-demand recovery and exploding levels of profitability. My research suggests this is a pipe dream. But even if a tech boom is right around the corner, most stocks have already factored this into current price levels. That's the concept of discounting. Although this is always dangerous to say, the next tech cycle will be different. When the tech business finally recovers, investors will sell the recovery profits earlier and more cheaply than ever before. Having experienced the wickedest downturn in technology industry history, investors will treat the stocks more like the risky investments they are. Except for the "category killers" such as Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq) , Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) , Cisco and Applied Materials, technology stocks will probably be valued more like cyclical business than growth stocks. As a value investor who is well acquainted with deeply cyclical, slow-growth companies, I'm not surprised at the market's tendency to discount peak profits prematurely. But many technology investors will be. Readers of my column understand I'm not a member of the technology perma-bear camp. In the mid-1990s, I invested virtually my entire portfolio in technology. And, as recently as last year, tech represented 40% of my holdings. Small-cap tech stocks represented excellent value in the panic of last fall. The New Tech Mindset The investor psychology is markedly different today. It embraces risk more aggressively than it shunned it last fall. Cheap to reasonably priced tech shares have given way to Internet "10-baggers" and concept stocks. Semiconductor and capital equipment shares trade for 50 times recovery earnings. No growth software companies trade for big premiums. Attractive tech specs have become candidates for tech wrecks if the sector recovery fails to materialize once again in this year's second half. I still own partial positions in two stocks I've said I liked, Artesyn Tech (ATSN:Nasdaq) and MRV Communications (MRVC:Nasdaq) . But I've sold all others, from mega-cap EDS (EDS:NYSE) to small-cap Quantum (DSS:NYSE) . I've shorted the QQQs (QQQ:Amex) , as well as Amazon (AMZN:Nasdaq) and KLA-Tencor. I expect to short more semiconductor, hardware and telecom stocks should the market break further. The Nasdaq experienced a sharp pullback last week, which surprised the beta buyers and performance chasers. Many tech investors are not believers, but are simply along for the ride. What happens to these weak holders if the ride gets bumpy? My guess is that they'll bail. And it's a very long way down until these stocks reach the level of cheap. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Robert Marcin is the principal of Marcin Asset Management, a private investment firm. Formerly, Marcin was a partner at Miller, Anderson & Sherrerd and a managing director at Morgan Stanley, where he managed the MAS Value fund (currently Morgan Stanley Institutional Value). At the time of publication, Marcin was long Artesyn Tech and MRV Communications and short QQQ, Amazon and KLA-Tencor, although positions may change at any time

To: Sig who wrote (11111)	8/13/2003 11:39:19 AM
From: im a survivor	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13815

Brokers...full time, that is, will eventually be a thing of the past. Too many people now know the "truth" about brokers, analysts and etc, and too many people now have easy access to manage their own finances. And why wouldn't we want to? My dog could do a better job at making me money, then my full service broker. If I was in my 40's or 50's and was high up at a major house, I wouldn't worry too much. But I wouldn't want to be fresh out of college and going to work as a broker. In less then 10 years, they will all be looking for a new line of work. Funny, the major borkers were using the bear market as an excuse to tell people that they should let professionals manage their money. Well, what have the Pro's manged to do? Not very much. Most were saying BUY during the whole downturn and then switched to SELL at the very bottom. Surely they will start back with the BUY recs, just as soon as we start heading back down. Very much like weatherman...they are not very accurate and have trouble seeing just a day or two ahead with any kind of precision, let alone months ahead. However, weatherman are safe and will keep their jobs as we all like to watch the pretty blonde ( or in the ladies case...the big, hunky stud) bounce around the weather map...plus we are less prone to "tuning them out". All they are doing is ruining our plans with their faulty forecasts, but the brokers and ANALysts lose our money with their faulty forecasts, and that, we simply will not tolerate for long. Heck, even the safest of safe mutual funds are being managed by idiots. Very few outperform the market. Some do, but certainly not the majority. I'm sitting at about 30% cash right now after booking profits last week, and am debating whether this rally has legs. Since I have no clue, I will probably move to 50% cash, possibly more. I dont like trying to time the markets tops and bottoms, and I hate losing profit that was there had I taken it and I hate the market moving higher after I sell. So, my best bet is probably to stay at about 50% cash. This way I can make money if we go up. If we go down, I will lose less on paper then if fully vested, and possibly buying the lows will be good profit, which will negate what I didnt sell, and lost on paper, as well as greatly lower average cost, which makes getting out with a profit alot easier, if you arent already in the green. Crazy market....crazy times...thats for sure. Ahead, I see a troubled economy and a troubled world. I just dont see the bull running the bear out of the stadium anytime soon. I see us maybe getting SH and/or OBL, dead or alive and that will be good for a nice short rally, but what is out there to propel us forward? I see alot more negatives then positives, and acts of terror are not going to be good for the equities market, and I think we can assume it is not a matter of IF, but WHEN. Hope I am wrong, but am trying to look at things with an open mind. Again, what do we have that will propel dow to 12000 or higher or naz to 3000. Or even 2500, for that matter? Bull at heart, but trying to look at things with a sense of reality, instead of greed.

To: Sig who wrote (11111)	11/17/2003 11:12:43 PM
From: D.B. Cooper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13815

re:the re:Go fer it, I bgt pre-market So I hope you have held on coming up on quite a gain on MVL cbs.marketwatch.com Strong Business Momentum and New Growth Initiatives Contribute to Substantial Increase in Marvel's 2004 Financial Guidance 11/17/2003 4:05:00 PM NEW YORK, Nov 17, 2003 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- In anticipation of its inaugural analyst day webcast to be held tomorrow, Marvel Enterprises, Inc. (MVL) today provided updated financial guidance for 2004. Based primarily on increased retailer promotional support for Marvel-branded licensed products and higher expectations for growth in international licensing, Marvel is raising its financial guidance for net sales, operating income, net income and EPS for the full year 2004 as reflected in the table below. Marvel's live analyst day webcast starts at 8:30 a.m. EST, Tuesday, November 18 and is available at www.marvel.com/investors/. Marvel expects increases in both net sales and operating income in 2004, compared to 2003. However, solely as a result of a substantially higher effective tax rate of 36% in 2004 compared to negative 2% in 2003 (as described below), Marvel continues to expect a decline in net income and EPS from operations year-over-year. Expected results for 2003 reflect a one-time, non-cash gain of $31.5 million, or $0.42 per diluted share, from Marvel's recording of an asset on its balance sheet for Federal tax net operating loss (NOL) carry-forwards. Marvel expects to exhaust this NOL asset and begin paying Federal taxes sometime in the second half of 2004. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Marvel Enterprises, Inc. Financial Guidance ---------------------------------------------------------------------- (in millions - except per Updated 2004 Previous 2004 2002 share amounts) Guidance Guidance (5) 2003 Guidance Results ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Net sales $415 - $435 $315 -345 $324 - $329 $299.1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Operating Income $173 - $193 $137 - $157 $159 - $164 $80.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Net income (1) $98 - $111 $74 - $87 $146 - $150 $22.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- EPS attributable to common stock (1) (2) (3) (4) $1.31 - 1.48 $0.96 - $1.14 $1.94 - $2.00 $(1.18) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Weighted average diluted common shares 75.0 77.5 75.0 38.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Effective Tax Rate (1) 36% 36% -2% 31% ---------------------------------------------------------------------- (1) 2003 Net income and EPS attributable to common stock includes a $31.5 million ($0.42 per diluted share) one-time, non-cash benefit from the valuation of Federal tax net operating loss (NOL) carry-forwards. Marvel's 2003 effective tax rate reflects the one-time NOL valuation benefit. (2) 2002 EPS attributable to common stock also reflects approximately $68.1 million in preferred stock dividends, including a $55.3 million one-time non-cash charge related to the completion of Marvel's Preferred Share exchange offer. (3) 2002 Net income and EPS attributable to common stock is net of a $9.4 million non-cash charge related to the amortization of HSBC credit facility costs, warrants issued to Isaac Perlmutter and senior note offering costs. The amounts also include $11.8 million in non-cash loan cost amortization that was accelerated into 2002 as a result of Marvel's prepayments of its bank debt in 2002. 2002 Net income and EPS attributable to common stock include the impact of a non-cash SFAS 142 impairment charge of $4.2 million. (4) 2003 EPS attributable to common stock is net of approximately $1.2 million in preferred stock dividends. (5) Previous 2004 guidance ranges were provided in the Company's August 12, 2004 release. Marvel cautions investors that inherent variability in the timing of license opportunities and entertainment events, the timing of their revenue recognition, and their relative commercial success could have a material impact on its quarterly and full year results as well as contribute to sequential and year-over-year variability in financial performance. Drivers for 2004 Guidance: Marvel's financial guidance is based on what it views at this time to be an appropriate set of assumptions. Marvel believes it is prudent to discount the performance of previous hit projects and products when developing financial guidance. The Company expects that licensing net sales will account for approximately 40% to 45% of total net sales in 2004. -- Licensing: Marvel's updated guidance for 2004 reflects the initial benefits expected from recently announced initiatives in Europe and Asia/Pacific aimed at significantly increasing Marvel's international licensing activities. Licensing sales related to the Spider-Man 2 sequel and the related 50/50 joint venture with Sony will make a material contribution to overall operating income in 2004. Marvel expects a significant portion of this contribution will be recorded in Q2 2004, prior to the film's July 2nd release. Total revenue from Marvel's more than 35 toy licensees is expected to decline year-over-year as a result of the shift from a substantial contribution from Hulk licensed toys in 2003 (the royalties of which were recorded in the licensing division), to Spider-Man movie toys in 2004 (the wholesale sales of which are recorded in Marvel's toy division). -- Publishing: A modest benefit is expected from continued strength in the core business plus moderate growth in new distribution channels such as traditional book stores. Other revenue contributors, such as advertising income and new growth initiatives targeting young adults, should also gain momentum by late 2004. -- Toy Division: Net sales guidance for 2004 reflects an expected strong contribution from wholesale sales of Spider-Man 2 action figures and accessories. Given the strength of the Marvel and Spider-Man brands and the toy line developed for the movie, combined with strong retailer interest and promotional support to date, Marvel anticipates a substantial increase in revenue from Spider-Man movie toys compared to 2003 and 2002, the year that Spider-Man: The Movie was released. -- Entertainment: Marvel's financial guidance for 2004 is based on the line-up, presented below, of feature films slated for release in 2004. Given the late timing of the Fantastic Four and Man-Thing feature films, Marvel's guidance does not include any current expectations for material financial contributions from these two films in the 2004 year. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Marvel Character Feature Film Line-Up For 2004 (Release dates and development timing are controlled by Studio partners) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Film/Character Studio/Distributor Targeted Release Date ---------------------------------------------------------------------- The Punisher Artisan Entertainment April 16, 2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Spider-Man 2 Sony/Columbia July 2, 2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Blade 3 New Line Cinema August 12, 2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Man-Thing Fierce/Artisan August 26, 2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Fantastic Four Fox December 24, 2004 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Corporate: Marvel's 2004 guidance is predicated on corporate overhead of less than $4.0 million per quarter. Elimination of Long Term Debt is a Primary 2004 Financial Goal: Reflecting the expectation of continued strong cash flows in 2004, Marvel expects it will call its $151 million principal amount of 12% Senior Notes in June 2004. The Senior Notes are callable at Marvel's option beginning June 15, 2004 at a price of $106 per $100 principal amount, for a total consideration of approximately $169 million, including an interest payment of approximately $9 million due to Note holders on June 15, 2004. About Marvel Enterprises Marvel Enterprises, Inc. is a leading global character-based entertainment licensing company that has developed and owns a library of over 4,700 characters which have entertained generations around the world for over 60 years. Marvel's operations are focused in entertainment and consumer product licensing and comic book publishing. Marvel's creative teams at its Marvel Studios, Marvel Comics and Toy Biz divisions support the development of feature films (and DVD/video), video games, TV series and toy lines based on its characters. Marvel also licenses its characters for use in a broad and growing range of consumer products and services including apparel, collectibles, food and promotions. Marvel Comics is a leading global comics publisher and an invaluable source of intellectual property; Marvel Studios works with studios to develop feature film and entertainment projects; and Toy Biz is a recognized leader in toy design, sales and marketing that develops and oversees both licensee and in-house toy lines. For additional information visit marvel.com. Except for any historical information that they contain, the statements in this news release regarding Marvel's plans are forward-looking statements that are subject to certain risks and uncertainties, including a decrease in the level of media exposure or popularity of Marvel's characters, financial difficulties of Marvel's licensees, changing consumer preferences, movie- and television-production delays and cancellations, toy-production delays or shortfalls, continued concentration of toy retailers, toy inventory risk, the imposition of quotas or tariffs on products manufactured in China and a decrease in cash flow even as Marvel remains indebted to its noteholders. These and other risks and uncertainties are described in Marvel's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including Marvel's Annual Reports on Form 10-K, Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and Current Reports on Form 8-K. Marvel assumes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements. SOURCE: Marvel Enterprises, Inc. Marvel Enterprises, Inc. Matt Finick, 212-576-4035 mfinick@marvel.com or Jaffoni & Collins Richard Land or David Collins, 212/835-8500 mvl@jcir.com $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ Good Luck Don