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Pastimes : The Hot Button Questions:- Money, Banks, & the Economy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: maceng2 who wrote (306)	8/13/2003 12:37:59 PM
From: Challo Jeregy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1417

no offense to flint - but, heck, even I could see that people were out shopping -g- school starts next week here on the left coast, and kids clothes are on "sale" with 50% and 75% discounts. And that is at Macy's. Saw this Jim Brown post this am on Marketswing- I haven't verified any of his numbers . . . "... Two economic reports today were far from positive for the bulls. The Chain Store Sales rose only +0.1% from the prior week despite sales tax holidays in six states and the second wave of tax credit checks. Back to school sales are reportedly off to a strong start but with only a +0.1% gain in sales it would appear anemic. Even more troublesome was the Richmond Fed manufacturing Survey which came in at -7 for July. This was a substantial weakening of the conditions and every component lost ground. New Orders fell to -13 from zero, Shipments fell to -7 from +1. Order Backlog fell to -17 from -15 and the six-month outlook fell to 28 from 41. There was nothing positive in this release and after two months of improvement it appears the trend has reversed. The survey showed four consecutive months of retraction which ended in June with a barely positive +1 for the headline number. The drop back into negative territory was the worst showing in three months. Expected shipments fell to the lowest level since October-2001. This report was in sharp contrast to the national ISM survey announced last week, which showed an improvement in conditions. If the Richmond Fed Survey is a leading indicator for the August ISM then we could be in trouble. Note how the Richmond Fed has performed in relation to the ISM over the last seven months. It actually was more positive in the June period but we see significant divergence in July. One problem with the ISM bounce was the 44% increase from defense spending which inflated the ISM. Without those defense numbers the ISM may have been much closer to negative. More analysts are beginning to worry that the bounce in the July numbers across the board were a reaction to the temporary post war economic bounce. If that bounce fails to grow legs soon the fall economic recovery could evaporate once again...."