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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (10960)	8/13/2003 6:19:47 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95663

Semiconductor Equipment . . . Applied Materials reported July quarter EPS of $0.05 (versus consensus and our estimate of $0.04) and revenues were $1.09 billion versus estimate of $1.10 billion. Company reported July quarters orders up 9% quarter/quarter to $1.05 billion versus guidance of flat quarter/quarter at $970 million. However, upside to July quarter orders was primarily due to rebooking of a large order of about $80 million-$100 million (net orders for the July quarter were $854 million, up 5% quarter/quarter from net orders of $810 million in the April quarter). For the October quarter, the company guided orders up 10% quarter/quarter, to about $1.15 billion, with revenue guidance of flat to up and EPS guidance of $0.04-$0.05. However, there could be some order volatility due to timing of several large projects that may be ordering in the next 3-6 months. While there has been a lot of attention on AMAT's copper electroplating tool, believe traction in the plating market could be slow and impact minimal given the small dollar opportunity per fab (about $20 million-$25 million). AMAT’s business has already bottomed and orders could improve going forward. However, improved order guidance is largely reflected in the stock. For the equipment stocks to see significant upside from current levels, visibility for a sustainable order improvement is necessary, which is contingent on either a macroeconomic recovery or positive end market data points. Nonetheless, we remain constructive on equipment stocks given view that 2004 is likely to see growth in equipment spending. Semiconductors . . . Fechtor Detwiler suggests Intel's production numbers for July signal positive trajectory. The wafer starts have increased approximately 20% on a sequential basis as compared to June despite a modest decline in June as P4s and Springdale chipsets were released to market. Firm notes since the beginning of the year, production/output has more than doubled and incremental data suggests increase illustrates positive upwards trend year to date. Maxim Integrated was upped to Buy from Hold at Wedbush Morgan. The firm sees increasing signs of better macro environment especially in the U.S., which should develop into a tail wind for MXIM in its 2004. Price target $57. Maxim reported in line June-ending 4th quarter 2003 results. Revenues of $295 million were up 3.1% quarter/quarter and in line with guidance given late in the quarter. EPS was $0.24, also in line. During the quarter, growth was driven by mixed signal products and telecom markets. The company’s bookings and backlog results, which were both up slightly, are consistent with our thesis of a slow growth environment in the high performance analog sector. However, the September Quarter has gotten off to a healthy start and bookings are expected to grow sequentially. The company gave guidance of 5% sequential revenue growth and EPS of $0.25 for the Septembr Quarter, which analysts view as a positive given that the company has shown little sequential growth over the past few quarters. Going forward, the company expects notebooks, interface, wireless, mixed signal, and telecom products to drive revenue growth. RobBlack.com MarketWrap robblack.com Thanks for the excellent work on those tables Don! RtS

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (10960)	8/14/2003 12:29:14 AM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95663

I thought better of it and would like to add 1 more basic chart. This one is a combination of the past 3 charts and summarizes the past 5 years performance and looks at projections for the next 5 years. The 3rd column computes the actual compound percent change for the past 5 years - at the bottom line the change was 4 percent. The 4th column shows the present consensus long term growth for each stock. The last column shows where each stock will be in 5 years using the consensus growth rate. During the last 5 years the bottom line went from 13354 to 15885, a gain of 2531 Million. The next 5 years is projected to grow from 15885 to 38414, a gain of 22529 Million. Hmmmm.... Does anybody believe that?:) 5 YEAR (1997) (2002) CMPND FST CALL (2007) 6TH YR LATEST PERCNT LNG TRM 5TH YR SYMBOL BACK YEAR CHANGE GROWTH FORWRD AMAT* 4074 5062 4 20 12754 ASML 803 2250 23 15 4526 ASYT 182 260 7 20 647 ATMI 192 213 2 20 530 BRKS 109 304 23 20 756 CMOS 204 164 -4 20 408 COHU 188 135 -6 7 189 CYMI 204 290 7 30 1077 DPMI 261 342 6 15 688 EGLS 150 57 -18 22 154 FSII 163 143 -3 23 394 HELX 157 100 -9 28 337 KLAC* 1166 1323 3 20 3292 KLIC 502 465 -2 20 1157 LRCX 1053 755 -6 20 1879 LTXX 194 121 -9 18 271 MTSN 77 204 22 20 508 NVLS* 534 840 9 22 2270 PHTN 25 69 23 25 211 PLAB 236 387 10 20 963 SMTL 194 124 -9 17 266 TER* 1266 1222 -1 19 2916 UTEK 147 69 -14 18 155 VECO 286 299 1 20 744 WFR 987 687 -7 14 1323 TOTALS 13354 15885 4 38414 * Component of 18 stock SOX-X Index