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To: sammaster who wrote (255548)	8/13/2003 6:23:52 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

SM: Irrespective of where the long term rates eventually go, the key thing short term consideration for me is that a massive amount of damage has been absorbed by many players in the bond pits (we will likely start to see the airlifted body bags over the next few weeks). When you have been crushed into the boards, your tend to get "corner shy" for the next several games. I think we see plenty of evidence of this over the next few months and it is difficult to see how any of this can be positive for the economy. As Hickey points out, the analysts can play their silly games over the next few weeks (until Q3 warnings period gets underway) and usually their dreams provide the markets with room to dance. If he is right, then the markets might enjoy a languid run up to the "danger zone". This time though, I see little reason to stay in the foxhole. The sawdust on the bond pit floors is red, and there is potent restlessness among the money managers. Markets rarely behave as expected, so I think we experience problems earlier rather than later as we approach the fall. Best, Earlie