To: TimF who wrote (173715 ) 8/13/2003 8:57:52 PM From: Jim McMannis Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 1574638 Science - AFP Arctic ice cap will melt completely in 100 years Wed Aug 13,11:40 AM ET Add Science - AFP to My Yahoo! OSLO (AFP) - The Arctic ice cap will melt completely within the next century if carbon dioxide emissions continue to heat the Earth's atmosphere at current rates, according to an international study. AFP/Planetobserver/File Photo Missed Tech Tuesday? Check out the powerful new PDA crop, plus the best buys for any budget "Since 1978, the ice cap has shrunk by nearly three or four percent per decade. At the turn of the century there will be no more ice at the North Pole in summer," one of the study's authors, Ola Johannessen, told AFP on Wednesday. "If the CO2 emissions continue to accelerate, that may occur sooner, but if we cut them back the process will be slowed," said Johannessen, a professor at the Nansen research institute in Bergen, Norway. Observations of the Arctic by satellite show that the polar ice cap has shrunk by one million square kilometers (386,000 square miles) over the last 20 years and is only six million square kilometers in the summer. According to Johannessen, the total melting of the ice cap would set free a massive flow of cold water, which would strongly reduce warm surface ocean currents such as the Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream is the reason behind Europe's temperate climate and a reduction in its influence would have serious consequences for climate and the ecosystem in the continent. But Johannessen also said that contrary to received wisdom a melting of the ice cap would not entail a rise in the level of the oceans. "Because the ice cap is already in the water when it is melting, you are not adding any mass. Only precipitation, discharge from rivers and the melting of glaciers can cause the water to rise," he said. He added that the disappearance of the Arctic ice cap would benefit maritime transport as it would create a new northern shipping route along Russia's northern coast that could save some 10 days in journey time between Europe and Japan. Ironically, the expanded ocean would also help absorb the carbon dioxide emissions that caused the ice cap to disappear in the first place. "The ocean will play a major role in absorbing CO2. Out of the seven gigatonnes of CO2 that we emit today, the ocean is absorbing 2.5 tonnes just naturally. The bigger the ocean is, the more CO2 it will be able to absorb," Johannessen said.