When in trouble or in doubt,
Run in circles, scream and shout!"
The California Democrats are between a rock and a hard place.
California Democrats' Dilemma
Fight the Recall or Back a Candidate
By William Booth and Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, August 14, 2003; Page A01
LOS ANGELES, Aug. 13 -- With signs of growing support for the effort to recall California Gov. Gray Davis, Democrats here and their allies nationally are struggling to come up with a unified strategy on how to keep the governor's office in party hands.
What seemed a relatively straightforward choice has suddenly become far more complex, given the fast-changing political landscape here. A few weeks ago, it appeared obvious that the Democrats' best course was to beat back the recall effort by pouring millions of dollars into a campaign that urged Californians to vote against the recall. But since then Davis's standing has deteriorated.
That leaves the party with a clear dilemma: Save Davis by focusing on the recall; or save the Democrats' hold on the governor's office by channeling more money and effort into the campaign of the only prominent Democrat on the ballot, Lt. Gov. Cruz M. Bustamante. Some Democrats say they may have to do both, while acknowledging that this "No-Yes" strategy is the most difficult to get across to voters.
The Democrats' dilemma has been heightened by the surge of support for the recall and Republican film star Arnold Schwarzenegger, who at this point has a clear lead over Bustamante and the rest of the huge field of candidates in the unprecedented Oct. 7 special election.
"We're all grappling with these questions," said California Democratic Party Chairman Art Torres. Arguing against the recall is straightforward enough, he said, but the question of endorsing Bustamante is not so simple. "We want to know whether that just confuses voters more than it helps in our efforts against the recall."
The state party and the major unions have not yet taken an official stand on the Bustamante bid, which caught everyone by surprise, nor have the unions decided where to put the bulk of their resources. A convention of the state's AFL-CIO is scheduled for later this month to vote on whether to support Bustamante.
Bustamante's name on the ballot unfortunately legitimizes the recall, said Art Pulaski, head of the California AFL-CIO. "We don't want to reinforce the notion that this is an election -- it's the undoing of an election we had eight months ago."
But after a round of polls over the weekend that showed Davis in even more trouble than he was two weeks ago, Democrats are growing pessimistic about giving loads of money and time to save Davis.
An NBC News poll showed support for the recall at 59 percent, while a Gallup Poll for CNN/USA Today showed it at 64 percent. Private polls put support a bit lower, but the trend lines are bad for Davis. "If there is continued slippage, people are going to jump ship and let Davis defend himself," said a Bay Area union leader active in Democratic politics.
Even more worrisome to Democrats were recent surveys showing an increase in Democratic support to recall Davis, with about 40 percent of Democrats now ready to end his tenure in Sacramento. Earlier polls showed 25 to 30 percent of Democrats so inclined. "People have looked at the polls and said, it's impossible, we're not going to put our money there," one Democratic strategist in California said.
Other strategists said the party and its key interest groups have no choice but to focus heavily on a campaign to defeat the recall. A coalition of activist groups -- including the Sierra Club, NOW, Planned Parenthood and the AFL-CIO -- announced today that it would campaign against the recall by highlighting recent legislative victories on vehicle greenhouse emissions or paid family leave that would likely be overturned if Davis were removed.
But how much party leaders and the interest groups rally behind Davis is another question. The governor's advisers have planned to raise $15 million to $20 million for their campaign against the recall, and Davis asked union leaders to supply $10 million of that. He can expect to get some of the money, but perhaps not as much as he had hoped.
Democrats could be forced to embrace what they acknowledge is the most difficult strategy of all, the "No-Yes" message, which is shorthand for urging the electorate in the special election to vote no on the recall of Davis, the first question on the ballot, and yes for Bustamante on the second question of who should replace Davis if voters recall him.
Even Bustamante concedes this is a tricky message to deliver. One of the state's most prominent elected Democrats compared it to a triple bank shot on a pool table, and a Democratic fundraiser described it this way: "It's torture."
The Hollywood money raiser said, "You're basically telling the voters, don't let the Republicans take over the state by recalling Gray Davis. But hey, by the way, just in case, vote Bustamante."
"It's a difficult sell," said Phil Trounstine, Davis's former communications director and now the head of a San Jose State University policy research institute.
Trounstine and the rest of the state Democrats are wondering aloud how Bustamante can forthrightly defend Davis from recall and at the same time promote himself as a good choice for governor. "Having Cruz enter the race definitely complicates matters," a leading elected Latino Democrat said. "But it looks like we might need him."
Republicans, meanwhile, were enjoying the Democrats' dilemma. Arnold Steinberg, a GOP strategist, described the "No-Yes" gambit as "confusing, disingenuous, paradoxical, complicated and, finally, stupid."
"It's a little too long to put on a bumper sticker," cracked Dan Schnur, a consultant for GOP candidate Peter Ueberroth, the Orange County businessman best known for bringing the 1984 Olympics to Los Angeles.
Schnur said Bustamante's "big disadvantage is that it's a muddled message. But his big advantage is that he only needs 25 or 30 percent of the vote to win."
Though he was not the first choice of the party stalwarts, Bustamante brings something to the table. He is a statewide officeholder, former speaker of the California Assembly, a moderate and a Mexican American. However, he has little money and, as political scientist Bruce Cain of the University of California at Berkeley put it in the Contra Costa Times, is "charisma-challenged in a way that Arnold is not."
Bustamante's campaign director, Richie Ross, argued that his candidate is actually well positioned. Ross said that GOP candidates Bill Simon and Tom McClintock will take conservative votes away from Schwarzenegger. Columnist Arianna Huffington and Green Party stalwart Peter Miguel Camejo will take the liberals. But Bustamante will win the Latino vote and most of the other voters who oppose the recall.
Ross also said the "No-Yes" strategy is not confusing. "California voters are uniquely positioned to handle this ballot," he said, as they routinely are faced with dozens of far more complex ballot initiatives.
A number of Democrats said they want to let things settle before deciding exactly what to do, hoping to give Davis time to regain his footing and begin to fight back. But if, over the next few weeks, his position does not improve or continues to deteriorate, money and endorsements may well flow toward Bustamante.
Antonio Villaraigosa, a former speaker of the California Assembly and now a Los Angeles City Council member, said, "Right now, Democrats are focusing on defeating the recall. At some point, there may be a reassessment of that position as we get closer to election."
Bustamante's main strength is his potential to attract large numbers of Latino voters to the polls in hopes of electing the first Hispanic governor in the state since the 19th century. Schwarzenegger's vote for the 1994 Proposition 187, which denied public services to illegal immigrants, and the role that its main proponent, former governor Pete Wilson (R) is playing in the actor's campaign, could aid Bustamante in appealing to Latinos.
"Bustamante's people are going to wrap Pete Wilson around Arnold's neck," said Antonio Gonzalez, president of the William C. Velasquez Institute.
Davis's deteriorating position has prompted talk among California Democrats about having party leaders try to persuade the governor to resign, but Davis said Tuesday he had no intention of quitting.
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