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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BWAC who wrote (6769)	8/14/2003 1:04:03 AM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Respond to of 25522

I wasn't really arguing that, just pointing out that earnings will be much higher than the past, I can assure you of that.

To: BWAC who wrote (6769)	8/14/2003 1:50:16 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "...but this is just nonsense." 1. AMAT has had $5B revenues during this post bubble debacle. 2. $10B to $20B seems a reasonable range for an upturn in a decent economy with advancing technology. 3. Previous after tax margins exceeded 20% and the company claims they are positioned to do better in the next up cycle. 25% yields profits of $2.5B to $5B. With your 1.653B shares, the EPS range could be $1.51 to $3.03. 4. In previous cycles, the price peaked at about 20 times the peak earnings. With historically low interest rates, 25 to 30 times peak earnings could reasonably be attained. That gives a peak price in the range of $37.75 to $90.90. 5. Since 2001, I have forecast peak sales in 2007-8 and a peak price 2006-7. We are almost to 2004 and I still like my prediction. I also think that peak sales will be closer to $20B than to $10B.