Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Biomaven who wrote (8940)	8/14/2003 6:26:37 PM
From: Icebrg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Peter >>Forteo sales have not been spectacular ($14m in the latest quarter after a 12/02 launch),>> This is a new approach and the drug has only been on the market for half a year. According to NPSP's presentation at Adams, Harkness & Hill conference a week ago, sales in June reached 7 mUSD, which indicates a 84 mUSD 12m level. Both Forteo and Preos build bone-mass in contrast to current treatments, which just slow down the break-down of bone. I believe sales will continue to build as this concept becomes more and more accepted. At least intiutively it appears to be an approach that makes a lot of sense. >> Have you seen any sort of comparison between the two drugs?>> I don't think there has been anything yet. Forteo is actually a truncated version of Preos. NPSP does of course claim that the complete hormone will do a better job. >>Can anyone remind me what the Cinacalcet royalty terms are like?>> I found the following in a Google cache. The source is Piper Jaffrey. Mark Schoenebaum, M.D., Biotechnology: Biopharmaceuticals NPSP (#) $25.15 - SB - Mkt Cap (mil) = $845.0 KEY POINTS: * Cinacalcet successful in all phase 3 trials. Last night on its second quarter 2003 earnings conference call, Amgen announced that Cinacalcet met all pre-specified primary and secondary endpoints in three completed Phase III trials. Amgen is developing Cinacalcet for the treatment of secondary hyperparathyroidism (SHPT) and will pay NPS a royalty of approximately 10 percent on eventual sales. * Full phase III data expected in November at ASN meeting. We believe Amgen will present detailed data from the three Phase III trials on Cinacalcet during the American Society of Nephrology's annual meeting November 12-17. We believe the data will be uniformly positive. * Approval could occur as early as second quarter 2004. We believe Amgen will file a Cinacalcet NDA in November. We also believe Amgen plans to apply for Fast Track designation from the FDA, which would qualify Cinacalcet for a six-month "Priority Review." If a six-month timeline is granted, Cinacalcet could be approved in second quarter 2004. * Stock remains attractive ahead of significant newsflow. We recommend long-term investors accumulate NPSP shares ahead of the upcoming detailed phase III data presentation on Cinacalcet (fourth quarter 2002) and the release of phase III data on Preos (first half of 2004). The shares could remain range bound over the summer, but we expect significant news flow in second half of 2003 and early 2004 to push the stock into the low-$30s. Risks to our price target and investment thesis include, but are not limited to: manufacturing problems, poor clinical data, delays at the FDA, and failure of pipeline products to meet sales expectations if approved. The Adams, Harkness and Hill presentation gives a good half-hour refresher on where the company stands today. Available from NPSP's much improved website. Erik

To: Biomaven who wrote (8940)	9/9/2003 5:04:02 PM
From: Icebrg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

>>Forteo sales have not been spectacular ($14m in the latest quarter after a 12/02 launch), so that casts some doubt on Preos's value. >> NPSP (and CTIC) are new favorites. Hunter Jackson gave a fairly upbeat presentation at Bear Stearn's conference today. Some of the "highlights". - According to NPSP, watching sales trends of Forteo, this drug is ramping up nicely and is now selling at a clip of almost 100 mUSD per year. Still relatively few MDs are actually prescribing the drug so there should still be a lot of room to grow. - NPSP expects to file for Preos towards mid-next year. - NPSP expects to start "proof"-of-concept 2A study for teglutide (neé ALX-0600) end September. I suppose it would be better to refer to the study as exploratory. - NPSP expects to start pivotal study for teglutide in the indication short bowel syndrome towards the end of this year / early next. Discussions with FDA are still pending. - Amgen announced the filing for cinacalcet yesterday. NPSP feels the drug will gain accelerated approval status and to be available on the market by mid 2004. Amgen licensed the drug in 1996, which should indicate that the royalty rate will not be substantial. But still, there will be some steady revenues coming NPSP's way. Erik