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To: yard_man who wrote (255988)8/14/2003 10:29:18 PM
From: CapitalistHogg™  Respond to of 436258
 
Whatever-- this month I clean up. I think you should....

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To: yard_man who wrote (255988)8/14/2003 11:12:13 PM
From: KM  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
Apropos to what you were saying earlier. This is from the RealMoney Pro site. Options guy.

Thinking About Buying
08/14/03 10:15 AM EDT

September looks like a classic 'short premium' month.

Much like a stock that has a false breakout that quickly reverses, I'm wondering if the option market is experiencing a false breakdown.

The September cycle sets up as a classic "short premium" month. It's a five-week cycle, there's a holiday weekend in the middle, earnings reports are few and far between, and warnings usually start in late September after expiration.

It's so obvious that it's a safe time to sell "volatility," I'm starting to think it's right to buy sooner rather than later.

I mentioned previously that I planned to tread water until the end of the month, then start buying more aggressively. I'm stepping up my time table given a few factors:

1. Open interest after August options expire is extremely low, a strong sign of capitulation, disinterest, and complacency, as far as hedging is concerned;

2. the option fire sale that usually takes place the week after expiration is already well in motion; and

3. the unrest in the bond market could easily spill over to the range bound stock market.