The "Field Poll" has consistantly been the most trusted in California.
Davis' ratings dip to new depths
Democrats losing faith, Field Poll finds
John Wildermuth, Chronicle Political Writer
Friday, August 15, 2003
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More and more California voters want Gov. Gray Davis recalled, and even his fellow Democrats are beginning to despair over the governor's chances of holding onto his job, a Field Poll released today shows.
The survey indicates that 58 percent of likely voters favor ousting Davis in the landmark Oct. 7 recall vote, up from 51 percent a month ago. Even among Democrats, 27 percent say they'll vote to recall Davis and nearly a quarter of his fellow party members say the governor should resign.
Seventy percent of California voters disapprove of the job Davis is doing as governor, the lowest level a politician has recorded in the 56-year history of the Field Poll, said Mark DiCamillo, the poll's director. It matches President Richard Nixon's approval rating in August 1974, days before he resigned.
"These findings have to be very troubling for the governor," DiCamillo said. "They're all trending down from what already were very poor numbers. It's a very serious situation for the governor."
Davis' backers believe polls don't accurately show what's happening in a unique contest like the recall vote.
"There are going to be several polls between now and Oct. 7," said Gabriel Sanchez, a spokesman for the anti-recall effort. "But the only poll that counts is the one on election day."
SHULTZ ON BOARD
As Davis' numbers sink, the replacement side of the recall vote becomes an even hotter contest.
Arnold Schwarzenegger, the biggest name on the ballot, announced Thursday that former Secretary of State George Shultz has joined the campaign as an adviser, even as GOP leaders were trying to convince other Republicans to drop out and clear the way for the superstar actor.
President George Bush, on a fund-raising mission to California, avoided questions on the recall, but Democratic Sen. Joseph Lieberman, vying for his party's nomination in the 2004 presidential contest, gave a rousing endorsement to Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, the top Democrat in the replacement race.
The governor will get some help of his own next month, when former President Bill Clinton comes to San Francisco to fight against the recall.
NEW LOOK OF ELECTORATE
The flood of interest in the replacement vote, which has drawn a record 135 candidates, is changing the look of the people likely to vote in the recall election, DiCamillo said.
"The new voter can be described as a young man from Los Angeles," he said.
The new survey shows that likely voters are now evenly split between men and women, even though women make up as much as 53 percent of the voters in a typical election. The number of younger voters and voters from Los Angeles County also has jumped.
That's likely good news for Schwarzenegger, a Los Angeles resident, because young men are the target audience for his hugely popular action films.
But the numbers in today's Field Poll are more about Davis than the people who would replace him. With less than two months before the recall vote, the governor's support has disappeared across the board.
A majority of voters in every age group want Davis out, as do men and women and voters of every educational level. Latino voters, typically strong Democrats, back the recall by a 55 percent to 35 percent margin. Not surprisingly, 92 percent of Republicans favor the recall, but so do independent voters by a strong 59 percent to 32 percent margin. Only 5 percent of the voters said they were undecided.
"Davis' supporters are liberals, Democrats and voters in the Bay Area," DiCamillo said.
WORSE AND WORSE
The news behind the numbers is even worse for the governor. Of the 58 percent who backed the recall, only 3 percent said they might change their minds by election day.
"The numbers are getting worse and worse and the opinions are firmly held," DiCamillo said. "It will be very hard to change people's minds."
Even Davis' backers have bad feelings about the governor's chances. Although 37 percent of the state's voters plan to oppose the recall, only 22 percent believe Davis will stay in office.
"While they're not supporting the recall, (Davis' backers) are losing their confidence that this is winnable," DiCamillo said. "They're a very discouraged group right now."
Voters are divided on whether Davis should resign and let voters pick a new governor. While 49 percent say he should keep fighting, 42 percent want him to quit before the recall vote. Among Democrats, 23 percent believe Davis should give up his office.
The recall election would take place even if Davis resigned.
The poll is based on a telephone survey taken the past Sunday-Wednesday of 1,036 California adults, including 629 registered voters, with 448 deemed likely to vote in the recall election. It has a margin of error of five percentage points for likely voters.
Davis will be getting some high-profile help when Clinton arrives in San Francisco Sept. 15, said Mayor Willie Brown.
''We'll probably do a major rally with him, maybe at Union Square," Brown said. "I wish I had more of him."
While Bush was in California on Thursday, the president was mum on the state's foremost topic: the 135-candidate gubernatorial free-for-all.
But one of his potential Democratic opponents, Lieberman, promised Thursday to do whatever he could to oppose the recall and keep Davis as governor.
The recall is a "political power play" to remove a Democratic governor, he said.
"The idea of throwing someone out of office because of unpopularity in the first year of his term is a terrible precedent," Lieberman told reporters in San Francisco.
Independent Arianna Huffington blasted Schwarzenegger Thursday for participating in a May 2001 meeting in Beverly Hills with then Enron Corp. chairman Kenneth Lay. The meeting occurred while California was reeling from skyrocketing energy costs that federal regulators said were caused in large part by Enron and other energy companies manipulating the market.
"Here are the questions I want you to ask Arnold Schwarzenegger -- when he begins answering questions," Huffington said.
In the past week, Schwarzenegger hasn't acted the role of candidate, dropping out of public view and scheduling no campaign appearances. His campaign had no events planned Thursday, but the actor made an unannounced trip to a San Fernando Valley middle school, where he talked about his support for after-school activities.
Asked about Huffington's charges, a smiling Schwarzenegger said, "Well, you know I'm not responding to any of those things because I would be crazy if I would." |
