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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kirk © who wrote (10999)	8/15/2003 6:35:50 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95663

I certainly have no problem with your comments - "right on". It is all a matter of "when" and "how much" as to the coming recovery. I liked Sarmad's comments of a few days ago - I'll try to paraphrase his observation - AMAT and many, many, other stocks are simply a place to park your money for awhile and hope that it will go up if you are long and hope that it goes down if you are short. There is no other way to get your money out except to buy low and sell high or short high and cover low. In other words, that is the way it is for stocks that do not pay dividends of some sort. For this type of stock, the valuations are relatively meaningless over the short term. If the stocks are being pushed higher by market forces - they go higher - I know that we all know that. You look at the weekly results I post and it is very easy to see. The valuations at any given time mean nothing in terms of what goes up and what goes down in any given week. Many times, the stock with the worst fundamentals in the Group of 25 makes the highest gain for the week. The big question is - where is the Group going on a longer term average. Since October and March it has been going up(although for the last few weeks it has "leveled off" quite a bit). What I would like to know is - are we going to have a "substantial" pullback in the Group and other market averages this fall, or are we just going to "muscle our way through" this period of little growth through the efforts of the newspapers, media, brokerage houses, institutions, mutual funds and the Fed pumping liquidity into the market and assuring all the players that the "easy money" is here to stay for many months? Don