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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rjm2 who wrote (17582)	8/16/2003 12:43:17 PM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78534

Comment - why do you let these intangible macro factors affect your decision to invest in value stocks? Are you investing in the broader markets and trends these stories discuss? Are you investing in all the companies with insider selling? Do you plan to buy index components that could be affected by mutual fund flow direction changes? Most value investors don't work that way. We look for specific situations that present compelling values. The broader picture is one whit away from irrelevant. Value investors can always find sectors moving up and identify good plays within those sectors. You are mixing momentum market timing issues with "value investing". It's a complete contradiction, IMHO. Value investors don't follow the herd. Otherwise we would just buy index funds and find a new hobby.

To: rjm2 who wrote (17582)	8/17/2003 12:37:52 AM
From: TimbaBear	Respond to of 78534

rjm2 As I have mentioned before, I have been increasingly uncomfortable with the market and my long positions not to mention being unable to find new stocks to buy. September and October look to me to have the potential this year to be real nasty. There's been an awfully big run-up in stock prices in anticipation of a recovery that may prove to be weaker than hoped for. From earnings warning time on, I intend to be real careful. Between now and then I'll probably take profits on some stuff so I have cash available. TimbBear

To: rjm2 who wrote (17582)	8/17/2003 11:32:49 PM
From: Steve168	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78534

rjm2, agree with you that aggressive insider selling is troublesome. Chart of major indices (COMP, SP500, RUT) are showing signs of topping out. On positive side, treasury bonds sold off significantly, as we all know that Warren Buffet sold 9B dollars of bonds. We may expect the herd following him continue to sell bonds, those fresh cash need some place to invest - and it may continue to pour into stock market. Some survey says investors are optimistic on stock market. Depends on the survey happened in what "circle", the result may not be the same. I do see many newsletters being very bullish in the past couple months, and they were proven right. But when I talk to my regular friends who are not investing pros, most of them are still on the sidelines, showing some interest in stock market due to the recent rise, most of them are bragging about how their houses appreciated in the past couple years, in the range from $50,000 to $200,000 in 5 years. Many firmly believe that their home price won't go down, or if they go down, they won't go down much. I am still holding many deeply undervalued stocks bought in the past 12 months. I did unload some of them that became fairly valued, and bought some small tech companies that survived the crash and demonstrating 10% sequential revenue growth. I am also taking some short positions (such as SPY) as a hedge. I am currently 65% net long versus 100% net long 3 months ago. I have been wrong in the past so I may be wrong this time. But some hedging is needed to ensure my great gains in the past year don't just go away.

To: rjm2 who wrote (17582)	9/19/2003 6:02:55 AM
From: rjm2	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 78534

This is a followup to my post about a month ago about my increasing "uncomfortableness" with the market and specifically, being able to find stocks I wish to buy. Over the last month, a number of my stocks have had good runs which has made raising cash easier than I anticipated. However, since my portfolio value has increased more than the stock I sold, I find myself still wanting to raise more cash. A number of my positions that have been doing well include BONT, EBSC,EZPW,GIII,COHT,BEAV,ONYX,EGAM,BAMM. And, the negative insider ratios just continue to look almost perlious as evidenced by the notes below as well as stuff I posted a month ago. I find myself INTERESTED in the Martin Weiss junkmail that I have been getting for years and wondering if it could really get that bad ! --------------------------- The insider buying drought continues. September 08, 2003 02:50 PM ET Insider trading data for August show that corporate officials sold shares worth $44 for every $1 worth of stock they bought, said Thompson Financial’s Craig Columbus. That ratio is the highest one-month total ever, Columbus said, surpassing the May 2001 ratio of $40 and injecting “a bit of caution” into Wall Street’s rally. “For four months in a row, the ratio has been above $20,” Columbus said. “We’ve never seen that before.” ---------------- September 15, 2003 03:36 PM ET The severe bearishness by company insiders appears to be continuing into September, according to data examined by Craig Columbus of Thomson Financial. Columbus is among the analysts who've been waving a red flag over the volume of selling by insiders in the face of the stock-market rally. Insiders sold more than $44 of stock during August for every dollar of stock they bought, according to Thomson Financial. That represented an unprecedented level of bearishness, Columbus said recently on CNBC’s “Power Lunch.” There are many reasons that insiders sell shares in their companies, according to Columbus. Some sell for personal reasons, he said, and the timing of sales can sometimes simply reflect vesting schedules. But some analysts see insider trading as a market indicator, since insiders often have a reliable sense of their companies’ business prospects.