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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (44373)	8/16/2003 4:20:45 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

This whole debate is worth reading.;;; CEA Chair Greg Mankiw said last week that the 3.5% per year real GDP growth rate that the administration is projecting should make the unemployment rate next year lower than it is today. When I look at these productivity-and-output graphs, I can't see it. Output has to grow nearly 1% per year faster than productivity in order to hold the unemployment rate steady, and that can be the case with a 3.5% output growth rate only if trend productivity growth is now less than 2.5% per year. After staring at these figures, it seems to me likely that unemployment is likely to rise with anything less than 4% real GDP growth rate over the next several years... Posted by DeLong at 09:54 AM \| j-bradford-delong.net