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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Little Joe who wrote (16924)	8/16/2003 11:31:38 AM
From: loantech	Respond to of 39344

lj, That was one heck of a post. <g> Mighty fine! Don't know if it's true but it sounds good and was creative. tom PS:Of course Crusty is so sharp we need to import him up here. <g>

To: Little Joe who wrote (16924)	8/16/2003 12:05:56 PM
From: gold$10k	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 39344

Little Joe, <<The idea that we should trade with the commercials sounds great in theory, but if anyone did that during this gold bull which began at 260, they would be broke by now.>> It was probably 3 or 4 years ago that Jims101 observed (back on Yahoo then) that my trading style was similar to that of the commercials in that I accumulated gold stocks as they got relatively cheaper and gradually sold them as they became relatively more expensive. This has worked quite well. I was up 6% for the last two years of gold's bear market despite initially losing 10% in the 1st 6 months of that period as I was figuring things out. Since the end of 2000, my PF has increased by 256%. IMO, higher COT commercial shorts in the range of previous highs only means that a top may be approaching. If the POG breaks out of its triangle to the upside, history would suggest that the commercials would add even more shorts at the next resistance point. But if that next resistance point is $50 higher, would they actually break with tradition and cover? Only the shadow knows. Regards, vt

To: Little Joe who wrote (16924)	8/16/2003 12:06:35 PM
From: jrhana	Respond to of 39344

Gold Panned by Insiders miningnews.net but I like this: <The final word according to Naqvi's wrap-up, went to one of only four investors at the conference (out of a total of 280 delegates), who said he was now even more bullish towards gold because "all you guys are so damn negative".> This reminded me of Little Joe who has really been right on the money for several months now. Addendum I just noted the date of the news release so the above guy was somewhat prophetic

To: Little Joe who wrote (16924)	8/16/2003 12:12:58 PM
From: Andrew	Respond to of 39344

Message 19191235 I posted this on the 8th. Always do the opposite is how I make money. What are the shorts gonna do if gold breaks out to upside? Lets face it the trend is up and Gold is still getting bashed in the media. I have nothing against shorts, most of my trades are short but in this case it would be fine by me if the shorts have to buy along side the bulls.

To: Little Joe who wrote (16924)	8/17/2003 6:51:18 AM
From: crustyoldprospector	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 39344

Little Joe, What you say is true in a long-term sense. I mean, shorting a bull market is stupid. But on a weekly-cycle basis, there are points where extremes are reached, and it is time for traders to sell part of the position. I agree price action is the most important determinant of extremes in the market, but for a number of years now, extreme levels of commercial shorts have also been one of the tools that have helped in determining extremes. Price action tells me gold and gold stocks are going higher in the coming months, but for the next few weeks, I'm less optimistic on the stocks. On the metal, maybe we tread water between 350-365 for a few more weeks, which is bad with all the expectation of an imminent break higher (IMO). Commercial short levels on the metal are one indicator. Trend indicators on NEM are starting to look poor, and late next week I expect it to start leading the stocks down. Third, there is a potential boo-boo in general equities coming, where baby gold stocks get thrown out with the bath water. Lastly, the seasonal is starting to work against us: spectrumcommodities.com Regards, crusty

To: Little Joe who wrote (16924)	8/17/2003 10:45:39 PM
From: Silver Super Bull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

LJ, RE: "The idea that we should trade with the commercials sounds great in theory, but if anyone did that during this gold bull which began at 260, they would be broke by now. I suggest that this "indicator" is bogus." Great post. We are at kind of a theoretical crossing point here....most would consider COT to be gold/silver bearish, but the strength in the PM equities would suggest the contrary. I think that the main limitations for COT is the following: 1) We don't see COT in real time...there is quite a lag. 2) We don't have a clue as to what % of contracts COMEX constitutes vs. over the counter contracts. The same reporting entities that may appear chronically short on COMEX may have OTC long contracts that dwarf their COMEX short contracts. And vice versa. DB