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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (111878)	8/18/2003 2:10:50 AM
From: Bilow	Respond to of 281500

Hi Nadine Carroll; Re: "Slight change of subject, Carl? We all know that the sun will rise in the West before the mighty Carl admits that he could be mistaken about anything." You're arguing over whether or not US special forces have entered Syria or Iran. I agree they have. It was widely reported. I never denied it happened. But that's not what I'm arguing. Go back and reread what I wrote, but in complete, not in selected quotes. My argument is that we no longer have a "big stick" to threaten Syria or Iran (or anyone else larger than Liberia) with. What I said was that threatening to send special forces across the border is not a real threat. If it were a real threat, it would have caused the Iraqis to behave sometime over the last decade. It didn't. Little pinpricks with special forces are not capable of modifying decisions by the governments of Syria or Iran. Do you really believe that special forces attacks that kill a few people are a "big stick"? That would be consistent with your beliefs that the Sinai is a big place, LOL. No, invading with 500,000 men is a "big stick". Special forces only work against really really little countries. Here, let me make clear what my disagreement with you is from my point of view: Nadine Carroll, August 17, 2003 After Gulf War I and eight years of Clinton, the Middle East had ceased to believe in the credibility of America's big stick. #reply-19217580 Bilow, in reply Now they know that our stick is stuck in Iraq and therefore that we are toothless* for the "foreseeable" future.* #reply-19218493 Nadine Carroll, in reply: Oh, Carl, you are a continual source of amusement. I'm sure Bashar Assad feels so relieved with the US Military so "stuck" in a country right near him. Ditto Prince Abdullah. Oops! Did our special forces cross your border? So very sorry. #reply-19218502 Bilow, in reply: Funny that you didn't provide a link, LOL. ... The fact is that our influence on all these guys has decreased since the Iraq war. We simply don't have the military reserves available to make real trouble for them. #reply-19218542 Nadine Carroll, in reply: CNN good enough for you, Carl? Syria demands return of border guards ... #reply-19218555 Bilow, in reply: That was back on June 24th. It's now mid August. So did your claimed policy work? Are the Syrians toeing the line now? Is Israel safe from terror attacks? Has Syria quit supplying volunteers and weapons to Iraqi rebels? Here's what Debka says: ... Hey, if it were possible to keep rogue states in line by killing a couple border guards, then we could have done the same thing with Iraq before the war. In fact, what happened is that we did the cross border BS with Iraq for 12 years and all they did was thumb their noses at us. #reply-19218589 So go out there and find me a link which shows that the Syrians are toeing the line. I just gave you a Debka quote which supposedly linked the Syrians to the pipeline fires, and which said that they refused to talk to Washington about guerillas leaking into Iraq. -- Carl P.S. Also note the difference a few months made: April 19, 2003 Foreign ministers of the six countries that share a border with Iraq, including Syria, met here today for their first postwar summit meeting, sharply criticizing the United States for its mounting pressure on Syria. nytimes.com July 23: Argument that Syrian government would ease grip with US in neighboring Iraq comes up against more complicated reality* suggesting that future may hold something less than democratic contagion.* nytimes.com In other words, back in April it looked like the US would be able to get Syria to toe the line. Since then, that expectation has fizzled. The "big stick" is stuck, and is no longer a threat. This is a phenomenon that has been widely noted.