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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tyc:> who wrote (17050)	8/18/2003 1:17:53 PM
From: Canuck Dave	Respond to of 39344

VXN hits a new low. How long until the break? finance.yahoo.com CD

To: tyc:> who wrote (17050)	8/18/2003 1:28:49 PM
From: austrieconomist	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 39344

"Relative investment merit". I would say that general U.S. equities have none of it. Based upon dividend yield historically the market is overvalued by more than 50%. Based upon Tobin's Q (the market value of a firm's assets divided by replacement value of those assets), the market's valuation exceeds the historical norm by more than 30%. The price of stocks compared to the ten year average of real (GAAP) earnings also exceeds the historical norm by 30%. By the measure of total market capitalization to gross domestic product the market exceeds the norm by 45%. "Should the market be shunned in favor of cash?" Most definitely. It takes discipline to sit things out but to be successful by investing now depends upon a greater fool to take you out of your overpriced investment at a still higher price. That is speculating and I am not willing to do it. Good luck to you, though. I do wish you well.