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Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (666)	8/18/2003 5:53:16 PM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1070

>>3 of 12 is 25%<< The case mortality rate depends on how you define it. If you want to define it according to the WHO data, the only the pneumonia patients count as probable SARS patients and the case mortality rate is running at 100% (all 3 with pneumonia have died). If you are looking at the rate for those infected with the virus, but don't develop pneumonia, it will be much lower than 100% or 25%. 12 are positive because there have only been 19 PCR tests run (10 positive) and 7 antibody tests (4 positive). Over time most patients will be tested several times and the number positive for SARS CoV will rise markedly. Most of the 143 with symptoms will not die (or even be hospitalized) and I suspect the number positive for one or both tests will be north of 100, so without more deaths, the mortality rate for those infected might only be 3%, but it may still be 100% for those who develop pneumonia.