Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : SARS - what next? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Henry Niman who wrote (669)	8/18/2003 10:42:57 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1070

If lots of people were infected and not counted and didn't suffer pneumonia then the death rate of those infected must actually be more like 7% than the current 10% of all cases [with wild variability from Taiwan at 25%, based on questionable numbers, to 0% in the USA where there were sufficient cases to demonstrate a low death rate]. Of the human population, most people would become infected judging by how easily it's propagated, so there would be a global death rate of about 7%. But maybe not. As each sars season comes and goes and with strong antisars action by people [such as no kissing, no sneezing in public, no eating in restaurants or other places where somebody has their face over the food, wearing N95% masks, avoiding crowds, hospitals] maybe the propagation rate would be quite slow. As more people develop immunity, it would propagate more slowly and have less impact on their health each time around [with new variants to which people have limited immunity]. But even half that, or only 1% of the world, would still have a large psychological and economic impact. Old people would suffer disproportionately. The silver linings would be less of other infections too, reduced health care expense for old people [who will have died] which is of course only a silver lining for those not affected by the deaths and who would otherwise have to pay via taxation. Maybe sars is an evil plot by governments worried about meeting old age pension payments and supplying health care to the decaying baby boomers. Involuntary euthanasia. So much for my hopes that sars was killed off and won't be back. Mqurice PS: If 7% ends up the right figure, I hereby claim to be the first person to have correctly identified the mortality rate.