To: Michael Hart who wrote (44393 ) 8/20/2003 1:16:00 PM From: IQBAL LATIF Respond to of 50167 <Watching the 1750 level on the NAZ than the 52 weeks high is just around the corner......I've been getting a little lighter the last few days....only about 15% invested here until I see a confirmation of direction.> The Summary Index buy signal could come as soon as Friday! I can understand the excitement about the impending Summary Index buy signal, because we all remember and salivate when we think about the market's explosion after the last buy signal on February 24. I have been getting a lot of e-mail and even telephone calls in anticipation, and most of the questions I receive are related to when and how high. Regular readers have enough experience with the Summary Index to know that a buy or sell signal reflects an increase in the probability of a market move in the direction indicated, but that the size of the move that follows is totally unknown, and the starting date of the market move is also unknown. Some of the moves have been very profitable, like the one that followed the February buy signal, but others have been more subdued, like the one following the sell signal that is currently in effect. And remember, we do not anticipate the move and buy stocks simply because the Summary Index has gone below the trigger level of 4.5. In the Always-On Summary Index Portfolio we maintain our short position until the SI climbs back above 4.5 and we get an official buy signal -- and then we go 100% long. However, in the Technical Portfolio, in which I allow myself some discretion, I can open a long position if I can justify it on its own merits, even during a sell signal. For example, I like the Materials Sector ETF (XLB), and will buy a 10% position at the opening today. However, I will maintain our hedges until either the buy signal arrives, or until a major upside resistance level is broken. Yesterday's rally after the FOMC announcement resulted in 4 negative indicators improving. 2 became neutral and 2 moved all the way to positive. There are now 12 negative, 13 neutral and 4 positive indicators. The Summary Index held its ground at 4.15 and, even if there are no further improvements, will reach 4.55 at the close on Friday -- and thus trigger the buy signal. Of course, if there is a decline before then, it is possible that the SI will fall with the market, and the buy signal will be delayed.trendmacro.com