Facing 2 races, Edwards bides time
Keeps options openon top job, Senate
By Patrick Healy, Globe Staff, 8/19/2003
boston.com
DAVENPORT, Iowa -- After 11 straight hours of telling Democrats he is the best choice to challenge President Bush next year, Senator John Edwards slumped into a hotel lobby armchair Saturday night and mulled a choice of his own: Whether to bet his political future on his current, flagging bid for the White House, or to play it safe, drop out of the 2004 race, and run for reelection to the Senate next year instead.
As Edwards takes his "Real Solutions Express" bus tour from Iowa to New Hampshire tomorrow, political analysts are increasingly betting that he will be the first big-name Democrat -- with $8 million on hand and well-staffed campaigns in early primary states -- to exit the nine-person field. And while he insists he's in the race to stay, Edwards has also been cagier than most of his rivals about his future, as prominent Democrats in North Carolina pressure him to abandon either the White House or the Senate race.
A healthy, energetic, 50-year-old who runs three to five miles a day, Edwards has both the time and sense of pacing to still become a force in national politics even if he loses the nomination next year -- perhaps running for the presidency again in 2008 or beyond. But if Edwards loses both next year's nomination and his current Senate seat, he'll find himself out of office with no electoral base to parlay into a 2008 run. And unlike Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan, Edwards -- with only five years in politics -- does not have the political pedigree, name recognition, chits, or allies and appointees on which the former governors mounted their successful presidential bids as non-officeholders, analysts say.
"The gamble for Edwards is the biggest gamble in the race," said Linda L. Fowler, a government professor and political analyst at Dartmouth College. "If he gives up his Senate seat and has no presidential nomination, where does he go? People are starting to say publicly what I've said privately -- if he doesn't get any movement in the polls by early September, then he probably shouldn't do it, because the risk is ending up with nothing."
In an interview at the Radisson Hotel here, Edwards said that he'll assess the race this fall, after he bids to gain momentum in the polls with the bus tour, stepped-up campaigning, and new television ads. He also pledged to "do right" by North Carolina Democrats -- meaning, Edwards advisers say, that he won't lose the state party its only seat in the US Senate.
"I'm in this race for good," Edwards said of his presidential run, noting he has just scheduled a formal campaign kickoff Sept. 16 in his childhood hometown, Robbins, N.C. "We're really cranking up the campaign now, so certainly by the middle or end of October we'll know where we stand."
Of his Senate reelection prospects, Edwards added: "One of my major goals [is] that over the long term the people of North Carolina be pleased and proud of what I'm doing."
As a high-profile lawyer who made millions on plaintiffs' attorney fees, and a political neophyte who knocked off Republican Senator Lauch Faircloth in his first run for office, Edwards was accustomed to being seen as a golden boy by voters and the media. He still exudes confidence; in the interview, he noted that he could run for both the White House and the Senate next year by focusing on national issues and, theoretically, wooing voters back home. "I'm allowed to do both, under the law," he said.
His campaign's general chairman, Ed Turlington, said he expects Edwards to announce a decision long enough before the North Carolina Senate primary next May to give Democrats a chance to prepare to defend that seat.
"Given how long away the primary is, not to mention the Senate election, why close that door now?" Turlington said.
Edwards is not the only candidate facing a decision, though the timing for him and the North Carolina Democratic Party is more immediate.
Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut has also not caught fire in New Hampshire and Iowa, and Representative Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri has seen a softening in some of the Big Labor support he assumed he would garner.
The only other Democratic contender whose Senate term is up next year, Bob Graham of Florida, faces a set of circumstances that are similar, yet less dramatic, than Edwards's, analysts say. They are the only Southern Democrats in the race, seemingly positioned to attract votes from a key region for the 2004 ticket, which almost certainly must prosper there.
Yet as a 66-year-old with three terms in the Senate and two terms as Florida governor, Graham is closer to the twilight of his career than Edwards, and he also has a deep political bench and history in Florida that could help him rebound if he loses the 2004 nomination.
Graham has also given the go-ahead to Democrats interested in his Senate seat to raise money and prepare their own campaigns, while not committing to run for reelection, a Graham spokeswoman said yesterday.
Possible Democratic candidates for Edwards's Senate seat -- particularly Erskine Bowles, a former chief of staff to President Clinton who lost to Senator Elizabeth Dole last year -- have been seeking a decision by Edwards, or at least a green light for them to raise money, as Graham has signaled. But Edwards is biding his time. Analysts say the longer he waits, the more he risks not only the good will of state Democrats, but the national Democratic Party's future support, since party leaders do not want Edwards's hedging to hurt their chances of winning control of the US Senate next year.
"He needs to decide by October, certainly -- he knows that we can't lose this place in the Senate," said former state representative Dan Blue, a Tar Heel Democrat who is also considering a run for Edwards's seat.
But Blue, an Edwards supporter, also said he was sympathetic and sensitive to Edwards's concerns.
"He needs to win something next year," Blue said. "Otherwise, it's out of sight, out of mind."
Patrick Healy can be reached by e-mail at phealy@globe.com.
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