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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Louis V. Lambrecht who wrote (17232)	8/19/2003 6:30:06 PM
From: gold$10k	Respond to of 39344

Louis, For me, the price chart of a particular stock as well as that of XAU/HUI (including candlestick analysis) and the chart indicators derived from them (MACD would be my favorite) are primary for me. I also find money management (how much to buy, sell, or hold at any given time) to be a key tool in managing risk. COT is of secondary importance to me. There are times (like this past spring) when HUI would not run no matter how high the POG went. Currently, HUI seems absolutely sure that the POG will break out soon... and it has an excellent predictive record. Today the POG turnaround sparked a HUI rally, then after the typical 3pm pause, da boyz took both gold stock indices to new highs. I don't just think that da boyz expect the POG to break out. I think that they or their friends will create the breakout themselves. How else could they be so confident to buy in volume at the highs of the day? vt

To: Louis V. Lambrecht who wrote (17232)	8/19/2003 7:03:58 PM
From: jimsioi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

Louis, good read there by Seville. At the time of its writing GOLD was about two weeks from peaking....He accurately described the COT data for GOLD as "the very bearish COT data..." "The very bearish COT data for gold and the very bullish COT data for the US$ strongly suggest that we will see intermediate-term extremes for gold and the US$ (a peak for gold, a bottom for the US$) during the first quarter of this year." At the time of his writing the price of GOLD was about at the same price as it is now $360 and curiously the COTS for GOLD were about the same as reported last week....105K net short. Gold did spurt up another $30 as war fears mounted and the commercials ramped up net shorts to 120+K - their all time high, from which I estimate they're about 10K contracts away.....Interesting correlation....recent high for gold - all time high for net short positions by commercials. Seville is right, the Commercials appear to be right at the ends of moves, at the extremes. One doesn't know till after the fact when the extreme will be, rendering the COTS as an indicator somewhat flawed like any over bought or over sold indicator. With the COTS negative, the shares way ahead of GOLD and at ridiculous earnings and cash flow multiples, save maybe RANGY and GOLD, AU and a few others....to say nothing about general bullishness in the gold community that $400 Gold is about a given... I think risk levels are rising, here....